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The Really Useless Thread

  • #127,681
  • Dec 20, 2012 10:54am Dec 20, 2012 10:54am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Hatch,


good to see yoou here around again. Puuh, delighted :-)


Judging from the wave structure we find from the top yesterday, different TF's offer different counts.

I can count the move down to 318x as impulse as well as ABC zigzag.

Since we had a deep retracement following, 90,02%, chances are high, that we are only down in an ABC-flat correction.

Now we are down in the impulsive leg C, which would idealy target 3160-3130, extended even 3100 seems to be possible.

Below 3130 the case may get more bearish.

Bigger hurdel...
I have my first pending planned for 3107, depending on pa there. the problem is, I have valid targets way above and below the recent range. If I was better at reading the candle's intentions, though...

I smell a bull-flag on daily in the making that, when released (or unleashed for the bdsm-guys) will snap into our faces.
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  • #127,682
  • Dec 20, 2012 11:11am Dec 20, 2012 11:11am
Quoting infinitus
Market profile analysis

daily:

Fridays POC @ 3084, value area between 3068 and 3109


weekly:

last weeks POC @ 3075, value area between 2981 and 3150


monthly:

last months POC @ 2752, and it is virgin

current months POC so far is 3072 with value area between 2990 and 3125


So far, price trades at a premium on daily, weekly and monthly.

Therefore chances are high to revisit at least the 3084-3075 area in the next session (Sunday/Monday).

Nearby virgin POC's @ 3039, 2988 and 2905 on daily, 2752 on weekly.



[b][u][color="Red"]Trading...




actual market profile:


daily

Tuesday's virgin POC at 3180 is untouched so far, but nevertheless price today reached Tuesdays value area but was immediately heavily rejected this morning. Todays POC at 3221 so far. Mondays POC at 3160.

Below that next Value area at 3110 with a virgin POC at 3083

Conclusion: price seems to be a bit high right now and might decline further


weekly:

last weeks POC @ 3075 is still virgin, value area between 2981 and 3150

The POC of this ongoing week at 3161 and value are between 3145 and 3244.


Conclusion: Price this week established a new base at around 3161 (heavy traded). To see more presuure to the downside we surely need a momentum break through 3161 to the downside. The next area of attraction is clearly 3046 to 3075 to 3108.

monthly:

last months POC @ 2752, and it is virgin

in this ongoing month POC so far is 3073 with value area between 2874 and 3143

Conclusion: fair value of this month is 3073, last month 2752 (which is virgin POC). This months volume distribution is literally all over the field. Should the direction of price be further up over the next sessions, chances are big that we get a consolidation phase in the 3130 to 3030 area for the building of a bell curve.



Trading advise for short term traders:

if not already short, short it with break of 3205 for target of 3180 and 3160 subsequently

further shorts can be placed at break of 3036 with a TP at 2960-2970 area and 2900-2910 area sub-sequentially.

long positions can be taken with movement out of todays value area at around 3250 (note: 3260 may offer heavy resistance now (EW base channel). So maybe move buy stops above 3260.
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  • #127,683
  • Dec 20, 2012 11:17am Dec 20, 2012 11:17am
Quoting Mr Hatch
I have my first pending planned for 3107, depending on pa there. the problem is, I have valid targets way above and below the recent range. If I was better at reading the candle's intentions, though...

I smell a bull-flag on daily in the making that, when released (or unleashed for the bdsm-guys) will snap into our faces.


at the moment I have given up on counting this move up. I have fib-ed the waves several times out and found high probability areas for a reversal, but it kept on extending.

Maybe best to place orders at below 3140 for short and above 3295 for long

But that are chicken plays LOL
  • #127,684
  • Dec 20, 2012 11:28am Dec 20, 2012 11:28am
Quoting Mr Hatch
I have my first pending planned for 3107, depending on pa there. the problem is, I have valid targets way above and below the recent range. If I was better at reading the candle's intentions, though...

I smell a bull-flag on daily in the making that, when released (or unleashed for the bdsm-guys) will snap into our faces.
Definitively. Awful intraday action in the euro and awful daily candle on the making. Final warning that the we are reaching to the climax in this uptrend leg and is time to look for a way out. More than candle intentions we must close the stupid circus in Washington to close the chapter.

From my TA point of view yesterday candle was clearly made on profit taking and obviously with such a steep non stop daily chart (+8 consecutive powerful bull candles) it found nobody willing to be the sucker buying at the highs after a +1000 ticks and it closed with a screaming reversal bearish candlestick signal that guarantee to suck, prolly a bit more than the average retail, to jump in today just because of the candle. However, if you put ysterday candle in the context of swings, the context of the uptrend and especially that we are still a few dozen ticks away from a KEY Y/Q/M/W Resistance you can see that bulls were not yet over.

Today candle is just all weak last short and long hands getting squeezed in and out and we may close on square one with a complete flat candle. So the real deal boys playing now. Don't forget expirations tomorrow across the board. It's not rocket science to know that real big money is involved for the yearly close tomorrow.... I wouldn't read to much in these candles but in the swings until tomorrow close ....

In any case, DAX and all European markets closed on the ultimate highs screaming bulls even more than US markets but ES is the leading and is on hold until fiscal cliff. Oil also inches away from the breakup. Gold, sadly the only one I am not playing this week, already made the final verdict on what to expect from the fiscal cliff with a clean break ...hopefully some of you caught it Ken? Kill?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #127,685
  • Dec 20, 2012 11:43am Dec 20, 2012 11:43am
Quoting sisse
Definitively. Awful intraday action in the euro and awful daily candle on the making. Final warning that the we are reaching to the climax in this uptrend leg and is time to look for a way out. More than candle intentions we must close the stupid circus in Washington to close the chapter.

From my TA point of view yesterday candle was clearly made on profit taking and obviously with such a steep non stop daily chart (+8 consecutive powerful bull candles) it found nobody willing to be the sucker buying at the highs after a +1000 ticks and it closed...
Gold - we are here
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  • #127,686
  • Dec 20, 2012 11:52am Dec 20, 2012 11:52am
Quoting infinitus
Gold - we are here
Untested strong last break out point in my chart. We are going to close inside of it 1641. Tracking 1622/26 for the weekly close as is very key to define the next macro move and prolly direction for all next year in GOLD... A yearly close above these levels with fiscal cliff cleared will make me extremely bullish in Gold for Q1 and Q2.... we'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #127,687
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:18pm Dec 20, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting sisse
Gold, sadly the only one I am not playing this week, already made the final verdict on what to expect from the fiscal cliff with a clean break ...hopefully some of you caught it Ken? Kill?

sisse
Nothing here, sisse. Just enjoying the flat, and coding away. If I don't place another trade this year, my trading taxes are already complete...very efficient! Solid year. Highest percentage gains ever. Not as much total $ due to reduced capital for the past five months, or so. Considering it a success, regardless.

My next Gold trade will definitely be long...was too far into the short run before I was considering playing it. Just letting it do its thing into year end. While I wouldn't doubt some further lows, I suspect its starting to look very cheap for some heading into next year around these levels.
  • #127,688
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:21pm Dec 20, 2012 2:21pm
Kenny, what up dude, all good..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #127,689
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:28pm Dec 20, 2012 2:28pm
damn, such a on gold here don't understand what it is....

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #127,690
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:37pm Dec 20, 2012 2:37pm
Latest Overbought/Sold trades by the EA...

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JUST missed a buy yesterday, too. 5 of 6 conditions were met. Rough estimate of what it would have done if taken is drawn. Not going to change anything with the logic...yet. Don't want to curve fit. Costs nothing to sit a trade out. Couldn't have been any closer, though. If there was a...Less Than OR Equal To...it would have triggered. Ho-hum.

Its in an H4 trade right now. MUCH preferring M5 for entries at this point, though. It uses multiple TF's for everything anyway, but only enters on specific TF's close. H4 is just too slow for my liking...at least in these conditions. Of course, stops and targets are much wider on H4. Some people may like it, but just not my thing. See what happens going forward.

Will definitely have backtests for a few different instruments...using raw tick data, too. Very, very slow going, no thanks to the 32-bit engine. Still have a long list of things I'm adding though, too...so will be a little while yet. Most stops and targets are dynamic throughout, so its working its ass off to crunch the numbers in backtests. I much prefer live testing, anyway. I'll setup a Trade Explorer here, or myfxbook soon enough. Still a few more key things I want to finish before doing that, though.

Anyway...nice to be engrossed in it...been a while...good time of year for it. Supposedly a big snow storm coming tonight, so that will make it easy to keep the throttle down...on the Eve of the End!
  • #127,691
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:37pm Dec 20, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Kenny, what up dude, all good..
Could NOT be better, my good man.

How the fak are you, brother?
  • #127,692
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:43pm Dec 20, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting USD-Bear
damn, such a on gold here don't understand what it is....

Attachment
Green is green, Bear!

Tough to hold them after those big dumps. Always seems to just creep higher...tick, tick...looking for the level some big bastard is going to hammer it back down at! Will hopefully find a level soon where a bunch of bastards say...that's it...cheap enough for me...be gone with thy hammer!

Wouldn't mind if that doesn't happen until the New Year, though...so I may be one of those bastards!
  • #127,693
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:45pm Dec 20, 2012 2:45pm
Quoting kenfen69
Could NOT be better, my good man.

How the fak are you, brother?
Pretty good bro, getting ready for big Xmas bash with the familia..will be calling it quits till mid Jan after tomorrow...what's going on your end...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #127,694
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:53pm Dec 20, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Pretty good bro, getting ready for big Xmas bash with the familia..will be calling it quits till mid Jan after tomorrow...what's going on your end...
Nice...you're right, too!

Flatski across the board here, mate. No trades since last Friday. Targets were hit, figured I wouldn't even give the bastards the chance of taking some back. Right or wrong, I took what I wanted, and that will do.

Just coding away now. A little Useless demon for people to play with in the New Year. Its looking pretty good so far. Fairly active (which I like). More winners than losers (which I like). No promises will be attached, but is certainly more sophisticated, and performing better than anything I've ever worked on. We shall see.

When do you head to Istanbul? Around the 30th?
  • #127,695
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:55pm Dec 20, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Pretty good bro, getting ready for big Xmas bash with the familia...
Do you light it up with both families...or just yours?
  • #127,696
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:59pm Dec 20, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting kenfen69
Nice...you're right, too!
nice, fix that EA up so we can get on with our lives will ya, I'll send ya a check...

and say hi to fxgayjawn if ya talk to him...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #127,697
  • Dec 20, 2012 3:03pm Dec 20, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
nice, fix that EA up so we can get on with our lives will ya, I'll send ya a check...

and say hi to fxgayjawn if ya talk to him...
No cheques...first round will do! Or a meal at G&G's!

Haven't talked to the gayjwan in a while. A few random texts, but that's about it. Will certainly let him know you were asking for him...when you put it like that. Its a PROMISE!!!
  • #127,698
  • Dec 20, 2012 3:37pm Dec 20, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting kenfen69
.....my trading taxes are already complete...very efficient! Solid year. Highest percentage gains ever. Considering it a success, regardless.
Excellent bro. Glad to hear you have a solid year. Here, itchy hands to close shop but like last Q I will have to wait for the final minutes for final evaluation (don't like "counting" and doing numbers with positions open ..is just bad luck..) and closing year.

I am "working" on the Yearly RUT's Awards during the break ... you got a couple of nominations ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #127,699
  • Dec 20, 2012 5:55pm Dec 20, 2012 5:55pm
yay, one more sleep till the apocalypse...
  • #127,700
  • Dec 20, 2012 6:17pm Dec 20, 2012 6:17pm
It's the end of the world as we know it Hopefully a little runner to 314x for drinkies. Sleepies

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Quoting FibbinArchie
yay, one more sleep till the apocalypse...
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