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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,981
  • Dec 17, 2012 7:37am Dec 17, 2012 7:37am
Quoting infinitus
I am only currently diving into this stuff, and I have to admit that I have to read a lot more of this good stuff.


My approach will be, to bring the conclusions out of market profile inline with my Elliott wave countings.



Over the hollidays I hope that I have enough time to market-profile- analyze many clear impulsive waves. Will be interesting to see, what the POC's and the distribution is doing in those waves. Big question: are the POC's at/near each waves subwave 3?


I really hope, that we can this fine thread going again......


Catch...
The last thing I remember from AMT is that it's not simply a SR generator. At one point I regarded the prior day's VA hi/lo and POC as SR, but then learned that the relationship of these as well as the distributions and their relationships to one another could paint a deep picture of the supply/demand dynamic.

To anyone who has their shit together: can you post an M30 (EU) chart showing price and session profiles?

Mine are definitely not correct, as the profiles are nowhere near price.
  • #4,982
  • Edited 8:11am Dec 17, 2012 7:58am | Edited 8:11am
Here's an M30 EU chart with daily profiles opening at daily roll, thoughts on the chart. I've got a lot of reading and watching to do, so it's likely that my thought process could be different from "traditional" AMT/MP. My trading is nothing but supply/demand, so this is how I tend to interpret charts.

Thoughts and criticism welcome!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1217a.png Size: 41 KB
  • #4,983
  • Dec 17, 2012 8:26am Dec 17, 2012 8:26am
Quoting Rolland
Here's an M30 EU chart with daily profiles opening at daily roll, thoughts on the chart. I've got a lot of reading and watching to do, so it's likely that my thought process could be different from "traditional" AMT/MP. My trading is nothing but supply/demand, so this is how I tend to interpret charts.

Thoughts and criticism welcome!
Nothing more to say
My post before 1h
Quoting egkid
Not going into a trade today
but looks to me 3080 going to hit today.
  • #4,984
  • Dec 17, 2012 8:39am Dec 17, 2012 8:39am
Quoting egkid
Nothing more to say
My post before 1h
http://i.chzbgr.com/completestore/20...bfd688545b.jpg
  • #4,985
  • Dec 17, 2012 2:26pm Dec 17, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting Rolland
The last thing I remember from AMT is that it's not simply a SR generator. At one point I regarded the prior day's VA hi/lo and POC as SR, but then learned that the relationship of these as well as the distributions and their relationships to one another could paint a deep picture of the supply/demand dynamic.

To anyone who has their shit together: can you post an M30 (EU) chart showing price and session profiles?

Mine are definitely not correct, as the profiles are nowhere near price.

Hi Rolland,

please find attached the 30min chart with daily volume profile. The starting of the day is set to 22:00 GMT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market profile30.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #4,986
  • Dec 17, 2012 2:37pm Dec 17, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting Rolland
The last thing I remember from AMT is that it's not simply a SR generator. At one point I regarded the prior day's VA hi/lo and POC as SR, but then learned that the relationship of these as well as the distributions and their relationships to one another could paint a deep picture of the supply/demand dynamic.

To anyone who has their shit together: can you post an M30 (EU) chart showing price and session profiles?

Mine are definitely not correct, as the profiles are nowhere near price.


Thanks for the valuable info. I use on some charts attached market profile session indicator, where you can see very good where price traded in the different sessions. Even to know where the Asians, for example, traded and where not, is valuable information.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MarketProfile2.mq4   10 KB | 2,317 downloads
  • #4,987
  • Dec 17, 2012 5:28pm Dec 17, 2012 5:28pm
Heyo thanks Infinitus!
  • #4,988
  • Dec 17, 2012 6:03pm Dec 17, 2012 6:03pm
Profile of the wave up from Dec. 7th low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market profile60.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #4,989
  • Dec 17, 2012 6:15pm Dec 17, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting infinitus
Thanks for the valuable info. I use on some charts attached market profile session indicator, where you can see very good where price traded in the different sessions. Even to know where the Asians, for example, traded and where not, is valuable information.


ups, got the wrong one :-(


try this for the sessions
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MarketProfile.mq4   5 KB | 2,314 downloads
  • #4,990
  • Dec 17, 2012 6:55pm Dec 17, 2012 6:55pm
jUst wonderin if anyone has mt4 indicator that shows market profile on the weekly or monthly-one that include the VAH/VAL and POC? Would be nice to extend the current indicators to larger timeframes.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #4,991
  • Dec 18, 2012 12:49am Dec 18, 2012 12:49am
Quoting TPOTrader
jUst wonderin if anyone has mt4 indicator that shows market profile on the weekly or monthly-one that include the VAH/VAL and POC? Would be nice to extend the current indicators to larger timeframes.
take the following one

you can set it to daily, weekly, monthly, and you can change between time based and volume based
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Market Profile ay-MarketProfileDWM.v1.31rev.mq4   36 KB | 2,654 downloads
  • #4,992
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:40am Dec 18, 2012 1:40am
does anyone have any use for a free cluster data platform on here exactly the same as marketdelta.com.au "exactly" buts its completely free? i dont know if i can post a link here or not? its a russian site clusterdelta.com just translate it to your language and download it

WENDIGO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-12-18_1834.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #4,993
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:14am Dec 18, 2012 3:14am
Quoting infinitus
take the following one

you can set it to daily, weekly, monthly, and you can change between time based and volume based
excellent. thanks so much
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #4,994
  • Dec 20, 2012 9:07am Dec 20, 2012 9:07am
Quoting infinitus
EURUSD monthly TF


up or down? Decision time?
Infinitus,

I love the charts that you post! Just a couple of queries, what is the profile indicator that you use? Is it propreitary?

I am using a Market_StatisticsV5.0 (posted here sometime back) but that does not have the ability to pin point the profiles bottoms or tops. Doing it from the middle of the trend, imo, doesn't really capture the profile of the entire move. Could you please tell us, how are you doing it?


Thanks,
  • #4,995
  • Dec 20, 2012 10:24am Dec 20, 2012 10:24am
Quoting falkor
Infinitus,

I love the charts that you post! Just a couple of queries, what is the profile indicator that you use? Is it propreitary?

I am using a Market_StatisticsV5.0 (posted here sometime back) but that does not have the ability to pin point the profiles bottoms or tops. Doing it from the middle of the trend, imo, doesn't really capture the profile of the entire move. Could you please tell us, how are you doing it?


Thanks,


No, it is secret


Just joking.


I am using the indicator you can find here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post4516254


Note: this indicator seems to use over time lot of processor power. When I let the indicator run on my charts for hours, the system gets a bit unresponsive.

Maybe someone has a similar indicator?


My big wish is this indicator, where I can determine via the start and end date the time span of the bell curve. Someone there with programming skills?

Now you ask me wherefore, I think. Well, I like to back test old data respectively Elliot waves in the past, where I can be sure, that it was an impulsive move. Because I like to research the difference in Market Profile between impulsive and corrective waves.
  • #4,996
  • Dec 20, 2012 11:08am Dec 20, 2012 11:08am
Quoting infinitus
Market profile analysis

daily:

Fridays POC @ 3084, value area between 3068 and 3109


weekly:

last weeks POC @ 3075, value area between 2981 and 3150


monthly:

last months POC @ 2752, and it is virgin

current months POC so far is 3072 with value area between 2990 and 3125


So far, price trades at a premium on daily, weekly and monthly.

Therefore chances are high to revisit at least the 3084-3075 area in the next session (Sunday/Monday).

Nearby virgin POC's @ 3039, 2988 and 2905 on daily, 2752 on weekly.



[b][u][color="Red"]Trading...




actual market profile:


daily

Tuesday's virgin POC at 3180 is untouched so far, but nevertheless price today reached Tuesdays value area but was immediately heavily rejected this morning. Todays POC at 3221 so far. Mondays POC at 3160.

Below that next Value area at 3110 with a virgin POC at 3083

Conclusion: price seems to be a bit high right now and might decline further


weekly:

last weeks POC @ 3075 is still virgin, value area between 2981 and 3150

The POC of this ongoing week at 3161 and value are between 3145 and 3244.


Conclusion: Price this week established a new base at around 3161 (heavy traded). To see more presuure to the downside we surely need a momentum break through 3161 to the downside. The next area of attraction is clearly 3046 to 3075 to 3108.

monthly:

last months POC @ 2752, and it is virgin

in this ongoing month POC so far is 3073 with value area between 2874 and 3143

Conclusion: fair value of this month is 3073, last month 2752 (which is virgin POC). This months volume distribution is literally all over the field. Should the direction of price be further up over the next sessions, chances are big that we get a consolidation phase in the 3130 to 3030 area for the building of a bell curve.



Trading advise for short term traders:

if not already short, short it with break of 3205 for target of 3180 and 3160 subsequently

further shorts can be placed at break of 3036 with a TP at 2960-2970 area and 2900-2910 area sub-sequentially.

long positions can be taken with movement out of todays value area at around 3250 (note: 3260 may offer heavy resistance now (EW base channel). So maybe move buy stops above 3260.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market pofile a.jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #4,997
  • Dec 20, 2012 12:44pm Dec 20, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting Rolland
The last thing I remember from AMT is that it's not simply a SR generator. At one point I regarded the prior day's VA hi/lo and POC as SR, but then learned that the relationship of these as well as the distributions and their relationships to one another could paint a deep picture of the supply/demand dynamic ......
Its refreshing to hear someone acknowledge that fact.........


Trading the lines on the MP/VP graphic as S&R is pretty much a coin toss, with 50/50 odds at best.
Understanding the Auction Market process allows you to assess the odds of price continuation higher/lower, or the odds of a reversal……………(i.e. price above value does not necessarily mean price is "over valued"), where price opened is a factor that would change the context, where we are relative to the higher tf distribution may also change the context……….. by understanding "where" price is "relative" to the following reference points gives you the "context" and the odds of price continuation higher/lower, or the odds of a reversal………...


Market and Profile Patterns that affect Odds for Today's Trading Session
1. Overnight inventory long or short
2. Open inside yesterday's value area/range
3. Open outside yesterday's value area/range
4. Opening gap above or below yesterday's range
5. Opening type directional confidence
6. Prior day double distribution ranges
7. Prior day spike higher or lower
8. Above or below unchanged
9. Above or below halfback
10. Excess high or low intraday
11. Lack of excess high or low intraday
12. Breakout above or below yesterday's value/range
13. Breakout above or below balance area on daily, weekly, or monthly charts
14. Above or below average volume
15. Market Internals strong or weak
16. Timeframe in control
17. Balancing day (day timeframe in control)
18. Trending day (longer timeframes in control)
19. Price tempo as price approaches support or resistance
20. Trending day inventory adjustment
21. Daytime inventory too long or too short


Market and Profile Patterns that affect Odds for Tomorrow's Trading Session
1. Value area placement relative to prior days
2. Symmetrical day profile
3. Nonsymmetrical day profile -- Elongated up or down
4. Nonsymmetrical day profile -- Too stretched out up or down (> 2 distributions)
5. Nonsymmetrical day profile -- "P" profile (short covering)
6. Nonsymmetrical day profile -- "b" profile (long liquidation)
7. Prominent POC or Anomalies on day profile
8. Poor high and/or low on day profile
9. Upward or downward 45 degree line (long or short at poor prices)
10. Exponential affect of multiple occurrences of structural weakness
11. Value area/range breakout day with or without gap (3-I day)
12. Outside day w value area/range breakout (2I-1R day)
13. Neutral day high or low close
14. Excess high or low on daily, weekly, monthly charts
15. Lack of excess high or low on daily, weekly, monthly charts
16. Trend and one timeframing on daily, weekly, monthly charts
17. Unfilled gap
18. Trade location at go/no go reference (highs or lows of prior trends or balance areas) on
daily, weekly, monthly charts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,998
  • Dec 20, 2012 12:49pm Dec 20, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting mzvega
Its refreshing to hear someone acknowledge that fact.........


Trading the lines on the MP/VP graphic as S&R is pretty much a coin toss, with 50/50 odds at best.
[font=Verdana]Understanding the Auction Market process allows you to assess the odds of price continuation higher/lower, or the odds of a reversal……………(i.e. price above value does not necessarily mean price is "over valued"), where price opened is a factor that would change the context, where we are relative to the higher tf distribution may also change the context……….....
Great Post.

I think it needs to be linked on the first page.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #4,999
  • Dec 20, 2012 12:58pm Dec 20, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting infinitus
take the following one

you can set it to daily, weekly, monthly, and you can change between time based and volume based
does these indicator work on metatrader,i tried to do this but they wont open.i dont know how to put on metatrader,they do appear on custom indicator but that is it,wont open,does anyone help me how to fix this,regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #5,000
  • Dec 20, 2012 1:07pm Dec 20, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting mzvega
Its refreshing to hear someone acknowledge that fact.........


Trading the lines on the MP/VP graphic as S&R is pretty much a coin toss, with 50/50 odds at best.
[font=Verdana]Understanding the Auction Market process allows you to assess the odds of price continuation higher/lower, or the odds of a reversal……………(i.e. price above value does not necessarily mean price is "over valued"), where price opened is a factor that would change the context, where we are relative to the higher tf distribution...


Hi MZVega,

good post - saved it for further reference :-)

Are you able to provide an analysis, or better trading conclusion, on all of this points for tomorrow?

I am asking, because basing an opinion on such a huge amount of information/topics seems, at least for me, nearly impossible.


Out of all topics you gave - what are the most important say 4-8?


Thanks in advance,


Markus
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