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  • #241
  • Dec 8, 2012 4:04am Dec 8, 2012 4:04am
AUD/JPY & GBP/JPY

Both charts still pretty bullish after a bit of consolidation. Still on the sides and waiting for Bearish PA to pan out.
Keeping an eye on the previous weeks low and the Daily EMA20 as potential down trend confirmation.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121207_AUDJPY.png Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121207_GBPJPY.png Size: 10 KB
  • #242
  • Dec 8, 2012 4:16am Dec 8, 2012 4:16am
Cocoa

Weekly Chart - Has produced a Bearish Outside Bar closing below the previous weeks low and the weekly EMA20
Daily Chart - Also (obviously) closed below the Daily EMA20.

Currently looking to sell a 123 Pattern.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121207_Cocoa_W.png Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121207_Cocoa_D.png Size: 13 KB
  • #243
  • Dec 8, 2012 4:27am Dec 8, 2012 4:27am
Silver

Weekly Chart - Current rally appears to have failed to take out the October High printing a bearish reversal bar.
Daily Chart - Has closed below previous weeks low which was a large bullish rejection bar of the 33 level. I now see three dojis (indecision)
I have placed sell orders and would expect initial support at 31 and 27 (if we get that low)

[email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121207_Silver_W.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121207_Silver_D.png Size: 10 KB
  • #244
  • Dec 8, 2012 6:33am Dec 8, 2012 6:33am
Quoting mypipbull
Silver

Weekly Chart - Current rally appears to have failed to take out the October High printing a bearish reversal bar.
Daily Chart - Has closed below previous weeks low which was a large bullish rejection bar of the 33 level. I now see three dojis (indecision)
I have placed sell orders and would expect initial support at 31 and 27 (if we get that low)

[email protected] [email protected]
I agree with you MPB on your trade ideas. Silver was supported last week and a fall that should have happened was averted. This makes me think we may go up. ultimately gold and silver are weak

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #245
  • Dec 10, 2012 2:07am Dec 10, 2012 2:07am
Quoting mypipbull
Heating Oil Wow, and there it is.
Position closed at breakeven.
Maybe I was a bit premature in lowering my stop on this short. Looks like its resuming the downtrend again after chopping around a bit. Should I sell a rally??.....Hmmmm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Heating Oil Full0113 Future.png Size: 13 KB
  • #246
  • Dec 10, 2012 3:48am Dec 10, 2012 3:48am
Quoting mypipbull
Maybe I was a bit premature in lowering my stop on this short. Looks like its resuming the downtrend again after chopping around a bit. Should I sell a rally??.....Hmmmm
Based on COT analysis maybe not
Regards
  • #247
  • Dec 10, 2012 5:58pm Dec 10, 2012 5:58pm
Quoting howard
Based on COT analysis maybe not
Why not?....would be interested in your thoughts.
  • #248
  • Dec 10, 2012 7:00pm Dec 10, 2012 7:00pm
Quoting mypipbull
Silver
I have placed sell orders and would expect initial support at 31 and 27 (if we get that low)
[email protected] [email protected]
Price rallied a little further last night but stopped near the 50% retracement level of the recent down swing. So the contingent Stop Loss orders moved above this level:
[email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121210_Silver_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #249
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:50am Dec 11, 2012 7:50am
Quoting mypipbull
Why not?....would be interested in your thoughts.
Hi

Commercials positions according to the latest report:

AT Change +6%
52 W Change +8%
COT Extreme 15
COT Index 52%

It seems as if we are in neutral territory, if not considered as long signal
Regards
  • #250
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:55pm Dec 11, 2012 7:55pm
Quoting howard
Hi

Commercials positions according to the latest report:

AT Change +6%
52 W Change +8%
COT Extreme 15
COT Index 52%

It seems as if we are in neutral territory, if not considered as long signal
I agree we are not at the extreme levels any more and yes we are in the middle as shown by the index.....this is normal when the market is trending from an extreme. We are in an established downtrend at the moment.

The positive numbers shown by the 'change' by the Comms is what is making the price go down. Bullish price movement would show negative numbers.

To summarise we have PA moving down and Commercials moving to net long with Large and Small Specs (trend followers) moving to net short. This is the typical positioning for a downtrend. I simply cannot see anything there to suggest bullishness at the moment, but that's how the markets work...opposing views and all

Typically I do not trade this 'middle zone' mostly due the the fact that the risk/reward has to be less in an established trend but I am looking at doing so for cases when my initial position gets stopped out for whatever reason AND providing there is not bullish warning in place.

Anyway appreciate your thoughts and good luck
  • #251
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:57pm Dec 12, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting mypipbull
Price rallied a little further last night but stopped near the 50% retracement level of the recent down swing. So the contingent Stop Loss orders moved above this level:
[email protected] [email protected]
Price rallied again this time but also found resistance and closed mid bar. Stop move up again, so orders stand as follows:
[email protected] [email protected]

I have added a trend line here now purely for observation purposes. A close below would be more encouraging for downside action.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121212_Silver_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #252
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:04pm Dec 12, 2012 8:04pm
Soybean Oil

Not looking too pretty here. Now the Oil is performing the worst of the complex with Beans and Meal looking more resilient. Anyway honour your stop and see what happens.....it can still turnaround.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121212_SoybeanOil_D.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121212_Soybean_D.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121212_SoybeanMeal_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #253
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:13am Dec 13, 2012 4:13am
Weekly Silver

My thoughts...
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #254
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:19am Dec 13, 2012 5:19am
Quoting Olu
Weekly Silver

My thoughts...
I agree. My short bias is 100% due to the COT data. So provided price aligns itself I'm Short, if not I am flat until COT tells me to get bullish.
  • #255
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:50pm Dec 13, 2012 7:50pm
Quick Update

Soybean Oil - Looking ominous.....
Silver - Short opened - [email protected] [email protected]
Sugar - No looking great for a long so still on hold
Coffee - Looking worse....pretty sick looking chart for the bulls (me)
JPY - Still very weak.......waiting
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121213_SoybeanOil_D.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121213_Silver_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #256
  • Dec 13, 2012 8:51pm Dec 13, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting mypipbull
Orders placed in a classic 123 type pattern.

[email protected] [email protected]
Wish I had kept these orders on....pretty choppy chart but analysis was good so far....not gonna beat myself up over it though....live and learn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121213_CottonCTH3_D.png Size: 14 KB
  • #257
  • Edited 7:37pm Dec 16, 2012 12:29am | Edited 7:37pm
Weekly Update

Open Positions

Soybean Oil - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (helpful bounce)
Silver - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (chart added now)
EUR/JPY - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (Trend following trade - Fading my JPY Bull bias)

Watchlist

Coffee - Long
Sugar#11 - Long
JPY - Short
Cocoa - Short
MXN - Short
GBP - Short
AUD - Short
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121214_SoybeanOil_D.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121214_EURJPY_D.png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121214_Silver_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #258
  • Edited Dec 17, 2012 1:11am Dec 16, 2012 2:41am | Edited Dec 17, 2012 1:11am
Quoting mypipbull
Wish I had kept these orders on....pretty choppy chart but analysis was good so far....not gonna beat myself up over it though....live and learn.

Hey Mike,

I think We've all had some of that this year. Looking cool in here..

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #259
  • Dec 16, 2012 10:46pm Dec 16, 2012 10:46pm
Quoting mypipbull
I am looking at adding new setups to my method. This is based on what I have observed and read over the last while.

I am of the opinion that:
i)Great technical setups can occur in the absence of fundamental triggers
ii)Great fundamental setups can occur in the absence of technical triggers

Below are the basic definitions:

1) Fundamental Setup - Current
The COT gets extreme, trend changes and I open trades in the direction of the new trend and hold as long as possible.
New setups:

2) Technical Setup - New
I use an oscillator...
Further to this post a while back, I am now live testing an approach that attempts to encompasses all of these elements into a complete approach.

The idea is that all 'Setups' are 100% mechanical, and then I apply my own judgement to validate a trade. This is not too dissimilar to current approach.

The setups are noted on a new summary page (attached). I'm not sure if this will be posted weekly or during the week as things pop up so will just play it by ear and see if it adds any value to the journal.

The signals themselves will flash intra-week (Daily) and are simply coded in-line with the following theme:
"Good price action bar with the trend after a pullback"

The actual coding is nothing special so have decided not to bother defining it yet as it may change overtime. Also IMHO the actual entry signal is the least important part of a trade so do not want to focus too much on this.

If I get a signal that I want to trade I will post it and then discuss the trade further.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121217_Summary.png Size: 44 KB
  • #260
  • Dec 17, 2012 8:24pm Dec 17, 2012 8:24pm
CAD Long

I ran the screener this morning and it flagged the following signals:

CAD Futures (Long)
USD/CAD (Short)
GBP/CAD (Short)

Looking at the spot FX the GBP/CAD looks like support is not too far away so strike that off the list. USD/CAD looks like it has more potential for downside action. Since its a shallow pullback the sell stop orders are placed below the lowest recent low and not the actual signal bar.
So orders placed as follows:

[email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121215_USDCAD_D.png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121215_GBPCAD_D.png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121215_CAD_Future_D.png Size: 15 KB
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