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  • #20,101
  • Dec 14, 2012 11:58am Dec 14, 2012 11:58am
Quoting dbutton1990
You can try, but my h4 chart suggests this is just the beginning of this up move...
the 4 hour candle does appear very bullish.

not too sure about the daily chart though
nzd, on the other hand, has just reached the February high - only 350 pips away from the all time high
I suspect a retraction is coming - next week - not a big one though, 150 pips or so.
  • #20,102
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:26pm Dec 14, 2012 12:26pm
that last 60 pip uptick showing low volume in most time charts - including daily

In other words, this is not a good sign if you are looking for a renewal of the existing trend

In fact, it may actually indicate trend exhaustion -

Then again, I've been calling for the trend top for a while now and look where we stand^^

1.06 does appear to be a much better level to short aud than the current level - at least there's legitimate resistance there.
  • #20,103
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:37pm Dec 14, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting maximmm
that last 60 pip uptick showing low volume in most time charts - including daily

In other words, this is not a good sign if you are looking for a renewal of the existing trend

In fact, it may actually indicate trend exhaustion -

Then again, I've been calling for the trend top for a while now and look where we stand^^

1.06 does appear to be a much better level to short aud than the current level - at least there's legitimate resistance there.
I agree with you maximmm... the question as always is when are they going to finally say enough already let's take this thing down... the market makes a small move down then all of the sudden back to almost 1.06...makes looking for that top a bit frustrating.. IMHO...
  • #20,104
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:54pm Dec 14, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting petehnm
I agree with you maximmm... the question as always is when are they going to finally say enough already let's take this thing down... the market makes a small move down then all of the sudden back to almost 1.06...makes looking for that top a bit frustrating.. IMHO...
I agree - it's hard to short during an uptrend^^

I do think that we'll see a much more significant move down from 1.06 -

There's a channel on daily chart - top of the channel is at 1.06, but once it hits, we may see a move to 1.0450.

The key to sustaining the uptrend though is whether aud bounces off 1.0450 or not - if it goes below that level, we may see a legitimate reversal.
  • #20,105
  • Dec 14, 2012 1:11pm Dec 14, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting maximmm
I agree - it's hard to short during an uptrend^^

I do think that we'll see a much more significant move down from 1.06 -

There's a channel on daily chart - top of the channel is at 1.06, but once it hits, we may see a move to 1.0450.

The key to sustaining the uptrend though is whether aud bounces off 1.0450 or not - if it goes below that level, we may see a legitimate reversal.
Wouldn't it be nice if Santa came early and gave us this short from here starting Monday... lol.
  • #20,106
  • Dec 14, 2012 1:44pm Dec 14, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting HelloOz
R1 1.0538
R2 1.056

then drop to
Target 1 1.0488
Target 2 1.0461

GL trading guys..
im done for the year, just thought i would share this with you.. take it if you find it useful, leave it if not.
and trade smartly, make your own decision, thanks.
1.0577..
unbelievable..
shorting 30 standard lots..
cant help myself..
GL
  • #20,107
  • Edited 2:06pm Dec 14, 2012 1:55pm | Edited 2:06pm
As I look at the 12 year chart - I can find no reason to be long in the nzd or aud pairs - both are in a massive uptrend channel, but each is very much near the top -

Both currencies, having touched the top of the 12 year uptrend channels, should ideally go down 25-35 cents each - aud should go around 35 cents, while nzd should go lower 26 cents. Then again - weekly chart and daily charts say otherwise^^

usdjpy pair monthly chart says that the pair is reversing - could be a major move up, but a move back to 80 handle prior to the major move up is likely.
  • #20,108
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:13pm Dec 14, 2012 2:13pm
There's no doubt about it, this is the cartoon thread.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #20,109
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:25pm Dec 14, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting pt49
There's no doubt about it, this is the cartoon thread.
Do you like it?
daddybearforex. com
  • #20,110
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:27pm Dec 14, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I thought it would go down more yesterday. However, overnight PA suggests otherwise. A retest of high 1.05xx may be in the cards.
I was over thinking yesterday.
daddybearforex. com
  • #20,111
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:36pm Dec 14, 2012 2:36pm
I think the Aussie Bulls are still not done yet.
daddybearforex. com
  • #20,112
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:37pm Dec 14, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Do you like it?
Do I like it?

I'm ambivalent... I'm not really here for entertainment.

I've had a shit of a week, losing 4.7%.

My long aud closed while I slept at 1.0575, being my saving grace I guess.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #20,113
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:39pm Dec 14, 2012 2:39pm
.......
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #20,114
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:41pm Dec 14, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting pt49
Do I like it?

I'm ambivalent... I'm not really here for entertainment.

I've had a shit of a week, losing 4.7%.

My long aud closed while I slept at 1.0575, being my saving grace I guess.
The cartoons are not really for entertainment but my messages in an art form.

You still have a nice day today, right?
daddybearforex. com
  • #20,115
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:56pm Dec 14, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The cartoons are not really for entertainment but my messages in an art form.

You still have a nice day today, right?
yes
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #20,116
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:03pm Dec 14, 2012 3:03pm
COT aud net longs have reached the highest level since the beginning of time

When aud crumbles, it could be the biggest downfall aud has ever seen. It's going to be one of those - retraction-less moves down.

When it starts, it will be easy to figure out as there will be massive long red candles on every chart.

As some say - it's all a matter of timing.

What is true though is that even now aud is starting to show signs of weakness - so it's only a matter of time until it goes down south - and when it does, the move will be massive in scope.
  • #20,117
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:11pm Dec 14, 2012 3:11pm
Quoting maximmm
COT aud net longs have reached the highest level since the beginning of time

When aud crumbles, it could be the biggest downfall aud has ever seen. It's going to be one of those - retraction-less moves down.

When it starts, it will be easy to figure out as there will be massive long red candles on every chart.

As some say - it's all a matter of timing.
Are you looking for a 1,000 pips red daily candle?
daddybearforex. com
  • #20,118
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:56pm Dec 14, 2012 3:56pm
enjoy your weekend guys ..
  • #20,119
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:57pm Dec 14, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting maximmm
COT aud net longs have reached the highest level since the beginning of time

When aud crumbles, it could be the biggest downfall aud has ever seen. It's going to be one of those - retraction-less moves down.

When it starts, it will be easy to figure out as there will be massive long red candles on every chart.

As some say - it's all a matter of timing.

What is true though is that even now aud is starting to show signs of weakness - so it's only a matter of time until it goes down south - and when it does, the move will be massive in scope....
You say the Aussie is showing signs of weakness... that is meaningless without an explanation.

1... I look at the monthly chart and see consolidation since Oct 2011... a narrowing triangle or pennent if you like.

2... The weekly chart looks the same with price closing in on the upper side. A close this week above 1.0575 would bode well for a strong push up through 1.0600 on Monday... and that would be a breakout up in my opinion. Next target about 1.0750

3... The daily chart is in a steady uptrend for 9 weeks with no sign of weakness that I can see.

4... 4hr chart has seen price consolidating in steps up a total of about 400 pips in 9 weeks, nothing weak about that, and price is currently at the top of the latest consolidation area.

No sense going to a lower timeframe than 4 hours as it tells you nothing... too much noise.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #20,120
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:05pm Dec 14, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting maximmm
COT aud net longs have reached the highest level since the beginning of time
How long have they been at their highest level since the beginning of time?

Can they reach higher levels since the beginning of time?

In my opinion time has no beginning... therefore it cannot have an end.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
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