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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,401
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:54pm Dec 13, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting Intel
A lot of similarities between our trading styles. I wonder if he has a name on FF?

Yes........but he's not telling. Actually, I have no idea. I was wondering the same thing myself though.

For those who watched the video, you may have concluded that taking trades around the Tokyo Channel can be very profitable.

Take a look at the chart below.

This was a nice set-up from this morning.

The trade could have been entered on the No Demand as price moved up towards the low of the Hidden Selling interval. Note that this would be a trend trade from my point of view as the BPL is red and chart mode is red.

One could have gone for the 10-15 pips or looked to trade to the opposite side of the channel.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,402
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:23pm Dec 13, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting Intel
Hi Liam,

PnF charts used to hold a lot of interest for me. Not so much these days I'm afraid.
It's great to see someone using them, especially in tandem with VSA!
It has made a real difference to my trading the past few weeks I must say. Now I just need that to happen over a sustained period of time. We've been in a nice trending market for the last couple of months so that has helped. Dipping my toes into AUD and CHF pairs the last couple of days has been good as well. I'm looking forward to getting that volume feed working correctly, it isn't working properly at the moment.

Quoting HiddenGap
The guy's name escapes me at the moment, but there is a P&F expert that uses average true range as a proxy for volume. He has been on a couple of TG webinars.
I'm quite out of touch with the TG gang at the moment, if you remember his name let me know and i'll look him up, cheers HG.
  • #23,403
  • Dec 13, 2012 11:41pm Dec 13, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting HiddenGap
UPDATE:
You are going to own this market with those 12h charts.
  • #23,404
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:02am Dec 14, 2012 12:02am
Last of the supply remaining on EU just in time for Santa!
Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
  • #23,405
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:24am Dec 14, 2012 4:24am
This is a trade I just took today.

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My thoughts for this trade. Overall still higher highs and higher lows. With a new high today at 3118. Objective was to look for an area of clear accumulation when price retrace back down. Supply and weak buyers have to be cleared out before price continue going up.

There was effort to fall all the way to 3076. Followed by a ND(?). Bar 1 was what I wanted to see if I were to take a long. It was a RUT(?) at a key level. I considered taking a 3080 long after bar 1 but held back because there was a ND just above it. Same thing like yesterday, ND is like my kryptonite :s. I don't know what to do with it. Go against it, ignore it? VSA gurus, any advice?

So I waited for a better price away from ND. Bar 2 formed. A quick blip down, I'm guessing to clear whatever stops that are left, and closed as a RUT(?). This was also on par with the highest volume of the day. Buyers did come in at this area. Quite confident, so I took a long at 3074.

I highlighted 2 bars in blue. VSA gurus, what do you make of these bars? Looks like ND? I decided to take myself out of the trade because of these 2 bars. Took 10 pips.

I also think the bar after bar 1 and bar 2 are shakeouts? VSA gurus, do you consider that shakeouts?
  • #23,406
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:39am Dec 14, 2012 4:39am
Quoting lx384
This is a trade I just took today.

Attachment

My thoughts for this trade. Overall still higher highs and higher lows. With a new high today at 3118. Objective was to look for an area of clear accumulation when price retrace back down. Supply and weak buyers have to be cleared out before price continue going up.

There was effort to fall all the way to 3076. Followed by a ND(?). Bar 1 was what I wanted to see if I were to take a long. It was a RUT(?) at a key level. I considered taking a 3080 long after bar 1 but held back because...
Well done for getting the 10 pips.

Read MTM and tell us what a RUT/SO is.
  • #23,407
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:53am Dec 14, 2012 4:53am
Quoting Intel
Well done for getting the 10 pips.

Read MTM and tell us what a RUT/SO is.
RUT must be a wide spread bar into 'new' lows, on high volume and a close back near the highs. Usually appear on market bottoms. Bar 1 and 2 closed in the middle. So you would not consider it as RUT?
  • #23,408
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:14am Dec 14, 2012 5:14am
Quoting lx384
RUT must be a wide spread bar into 'new' lows, on high volume and a close back near the highs. Usually appear on market bottoms. Bar 1 and 2 closed in the middle. So you would not consider it as RUT?
There you are, you knew the answer all along!
  • #23,409
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:21am Dec 14, 2012 5:21am
Quoting Intel
There you are, you knew the answer all along!
I know the definition, I just wanted to find out if you guys see that as a RUT, thus the question marks. By strict definition, it is not because it closed in the middle. So no trade for that area? or would you have entered somewhere else?
  • #23,410
  • Dec 14, 2012 6:35am Dec 14, 2012 6:35am
Gold daily, ignore the sunday candle.

1: supply enters the market and knocks price sideways a bit, some strength comes in on the last 2 down bars and price starts to rise.

2/3: market tries to go up on no demand.

4: some strength appears

5: no demand/upthrust type bar right at trigger number from previous supply/demand bars

6: no demand bar at same trigger numbers, look at the low volume on the previous up bars

7: upthrust

My question is, how did i do? and how would you have traded this? bar 5 would have been a great r/r entry, the upthrust at bar 7 looks like the best entry would have required a bigger stop.

Another quick one that I don`t know the answer to, a wide spread up bar on high volume is potential weakness but what if the widespread up bar has low volume but the market continues to rise?
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,411
  • Dec 14, 2012 6:35am Dec 14, 2012 6:35am
Quoting lx384
I know the definition, I just wanted to find out if you guys see that as a RUT, thus the question marks. By strict definition, it is not because it closed in the middle. So no trade for that area? or would you have entered somewhere else?
No trade there for me. Others may find an entry they would take.
  • #23,412
  • Dec 14, 2012 7:54am Dec 14, 2012 7:54am
I did download Master the Markets, which is a precursor to Trade Guider software. I need to do much more reading and studying before I fully understand VSA, because it seems upside down to me. Anyhow, a few observations that kind of stick in my head. I'll see if I am on the right track. If not I guess someone will let me know. On a bottom downtrend if you have a widespread bar with a close up and high volume it is considered buying climax. correct or not. In an uptrend if you have a small spread bar with low volume and a middle or low close it is considered no supply? If in a downtrend you have a small spread bar with a close in the middle or higher you have a no demand? If these are correct then my mind is starting to think up side down. On the Buying climax I am thinking that since the bar has a high above the close, close lower than high, then that is a sign of buying, since the bulls, SM, pushed the spread to the top. A few observations, let me know what you think. Thanks!
  • #23,413
  • Dec 14, 2012 9:53am Dec 14, 2012 9:53am
Quoting gez40
Gold daily, ignore the sunday candle.

1: supply enters the market and knocks price sideways a bit, some strength comes in on the last 2 down bars and price starts to rise.

2/3: market tries to go up on no demand.

4: some strength appears

5: no demand/upthrust type bar right at trigger number from previous supply/demand bars

6: no demand bar at same trigger numbers, look at the low volume on the previous up bars

7: upthrust

My question is, how did i do? and how would you have traded this? bar 5 would have been a great r/r entry, the upthrust...
There is a lot going on in that chart.

Bar 3 to me really sets the tone for the move, no one is interested in the move up.. This also ties into your last question, which Pres answered this a few weeks ago and it makes perfect sense, the S&P daily is the perfect example. Price can move up with low volume and be carried by momentum (the trend) and which it will not likely stop and reverse directions with out stopping volume. Bar 3 the market came up on low volume, but the reaction was not a continued up move, so on bar 4 we know it was no interest to the upside.

Take a look at weekly as well, a 2 bar which shows all of this weakness. As far as trading it, bar 7 would be the best entry for me, UT after confirmed weakness with hulls down. Bar 5 on sierra volume is not less than the previous 2 bars so I would not have seen that as an entry.

I would say the down bar following bar 7 has some demand in it, and I would be cautious of November 5th low area it may provide some support.
  • #23,414
  • Dec 14, 2012 11:03am Dec 14, 2012 11:03am
Quoting SimpleDev
There is a lot going on in that chart.

Bar 3 to me really sets the tone for the move, no one is interested in the move up.. This also ties into your last question, which Pres answered this a few weeks ago and it makes perfect sense, the S&P daily is the perfect example. Price can move up with low volume and be carried by momentum (the trend) and which it will not likely stop and reverse directions with out stopping volume. Bar 3 the market came up on low volume, but the reaction was not a continued up move, so on bar 4 we know it was no interest...
Nice reply, thank you.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,415
  • Dec 14, 2012 1:19pm Dec 14, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting sweatx
On a bottom downtrend if you have a widespread bar with a close up and high volume it is considered buying climax. correct or not. In an uptrend if you have a small spread bar with low volume and a middle or low close it is considered no supply? If in a downtrend you have a small spread bar with a close in the middle or higher you have a no demand? If these are correct then my mind is starting to think up side down. On the
I have to make a correction. In an uptrend a no supply would be low volume-middle or high close bar-low spread/ No demand in a downtrend is the opposite. A low spread bar-low volume-closing in the middle or low. I think!
  • #23,416
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:12pm Dec 14, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Thought i'd throw this chart up here as well as the VSA forum. Upside target of 1.3190 is still in play. We have the potential to come back up to form a triple top breakout at 1.3100. I've already set a pending long if this happens over night when i'm asleep! If it doesn't, no harm done.

I'm also working on combining volume with the PnF charts. It's looking good so far. Just need the input of a programmer before I can go any further.
Nearly got there!

Info annotated on chart.

Unfortunately I heard back from the programmer today and he's busy until Feb 2013 so can't look into helping me with the PnF/volume combination. Does anyone out there know how to code for Sierra Charts?
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  • #23,417
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:23pm Dec 14, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting sweatx
I have to make a correction. In an uptrend a no supply would be low volume-middle or high close bar-low spread/ No demand in a downtrend is the opposite. A low spread bar-low volume-closing in the middle or low. I think!
You're missing some important parts in each explanation. The only difference you have between the two is the close on high, middle or low. You must compare it to the previous bar.

No Demand - Narrow spread, up bar (the close is higher than the close of the previous bar), volume less than the previous two bars, close in the middle or high. Personally speaking I don't worry too much about where the No Demand closes, so long as it's still an up bar with the other elements intact.

No Supply - Narrow spread, down bar (the close is lower than the close of the previous bar), volume less than the previous two bars, close in the middle.

The No Supply and the (Basic) Test are very similar, both have pretty much the same qualities. If it closes towards the high it tends to be called a test. If it closes in the middle, it tends to be called a No Supply. The test may also make a lower low, but this isn't really a quality of the No Supply.

This is how I look at it all anyway, some others may disagree. I know a few people who prefer their No Demand to have all the above qualities as well as make a higher high than the previous bar.

Hope this helps.
  • #23,418
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:24pm Dec 14, 2012 8:24pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Nearly got there!
Info annotated on chart.

Unfortunately I heard back from the programmer today and he's busy until Feb 2013 so can't look into helping me with the PnF/volume combination. Does anyone out there know how to code for Sierra Charts?
Nevermind!

It took 2 and a half hours and the help of a good friend but we finally figured it out.

I present to you all a fully functioning PnF chart with correct volume reads. The first of it's kind i'd wager!

I'm wrecked. And hopefully never have to look at C++ again.

Good night!
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  • #23,419
  • Dec 15, 2012 5:00am Dec 15, 2012 5:00am
[quote=KinsaleForex;6296712]Nearly got there!

Info annotated on chart.
Looking at that P&F chart..there is a nice 10 box horizontal count, forming the base of the current up move. Its base is that very long down and up move..The wall to wall should not sustain such a move (yes, I see your 7 box vertical)..but the real bullishness is caused by the support below that. I would be looking somewhere between your 7 and 10 box projected area, and just let it run till it hits the first target..Then evaluate.
  • #23,420
  • Dec 15, 2012 8:13am Dec 15, 2012 8:13am
Quoting FrankSA
Looking at that P&F chart..there is a nice 10 box horizontal count, forming the base of the current up move. Its base is that very long down and up move..The wall to wall should not sustain such a move (yes, I see your 7 box vertical)..but the real bullishness is caused by the support below that. I would be looking somewhere between your 7 and 10 box projected area, and just let it run till it hits the first target..Then evaluate.
Without a chart I don't really understand what you're talking about to be honest! My 7 and 10 box projected area? I've nothing on the chart about a 10 box count. Apart from the pink area at the top of the chart, all the targets have been hit.

I don't look at horizontal counts at all, there are far too many ways to measure it in my opinion. With vertical counts there is one way and that's it. With the experience I have so far I find the vertical counts to be much more reliable. This is evident on the charts i've been posting over the last couple of weeks.

Feel free to edit my chart and show me!
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