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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,381
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:59am Dec 13, 2012 6:59am
Entered 2 trades today. Both were longs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This was my thought process. If prices were to come off significantly, there should be a period of distribution by SM at the top. So far, I can't see any significant distribution. So to me the longer term trend is still up. So I was looking for longs after the sell down. There was a strong sell down to 3058, but I did not enter there. It seemed climatic based on the wide spread bar but it wasn't near a supply area. There was a RUT (?) on high volume. That might be SM trying to accumulate.

I wanted to see a blip down below 3055, which was a significant previous swing low and a close off the low on high volume. This happened at bar 1. Took a long at 3057 (too slow to enter wanted to enter at the close at around 3054). Price did go up. Buyers did enter the market. Didn't like price action at the 63,64 area, so closed my trade at 63. Thought there will probably be another down move. Next key level for me is 3045. The area where price started rallying.

Again, I wanted to see 3045 get broken and close above the low on high volume. This happened at bar 2 and the bar before. But volume wasn't significantly higher. So I stayed out. A ND formed shortly after and price came back down.

Price broke 3045 again at bar 3 but close off the lows on higher volume than the bar before. A RUT(?). Buyers are definitely interested in this area. So I took a long at the close of that bar at 3045. This was followed by a shakeout(?). I was really happy when I saw that! Another shakeout happened 2 bars later. On higher volume. That kinda confirmed that I was on the right side. BUT. . . . I took myself out at 3053. There was a ND area coming up. I'm not sure how to manage the trade in that area. If there wasn't a ND, I would probably have held on for 15-20 pips.

Should I have waited and see how price reacted in the ND area? or would you guys have down what I did and close the trade?
  • #23,382
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:10am Dec 13, 2012 7:10am
Put in an order before bed as the retracement up to the massive volume FOMC area had finally occurred. Sold there, took first out at 40 pips. The previous poster may be right. There doesn't seem to have been any extended distribution yet, but a top like that on volume like that will get a reaction and that's where I place my bets.
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Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #23,383
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:29am Dec 13, 2012 7:29am
Quoting mima
Can you post swingvolume 95 indicator please?
Hi mima!
I am attaching the indicator here.

Cheers!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ay-SwingVolume.ex4   3 KB | 544 downloads
  • #23,384
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:42am Dec 13, 2012 7:42am
Another thing that I would like to share is that I am looking(still carefully) to eurgbp cross and use it for:

1. an "indicator" for timing entries in both euro or cable
2. as a relative strength indicator between euro and cable.

I always used equities and the dollar index but started to have a look on this cross recently with the same objective.
Here is a eurgbp chart for today: http://screencast.com/t/swR4lXLWvTR

It is a 1hr chart and is showing that eurgbp was approaching a strong resistance level, what indicated that euro was going to be weak, relatively to cable.
Indeed, euro dropped more than 50 pips and cable, whilst dropped too, was less than 40 pips.

Well, I know that it is not new and many of you are already using it from long time but, it is always good to remember! :-)

Cheers!
  • #23,385
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:51am Dec 13, 2012 7:51am
Quoting lx384
Entered 2 trades today. Both were longs.

Attachment

This was my thought process. If prices were to come off significantly, there should be a period of distribution by SM at the top. So far, I can't see any significant distribution. So to me the longer term trend is still up. So I was looking for longs after the sell down. There was a strong sell down to 3058, but I did not enter there. It seemed climatic based on the wide spread bar but it wasn't near a supply area. There was a RUT (?) on high volume. That might be SM trying...
Please allow me to share another view on that possible distribution phase.
Here is a 15min euro chart: http://screencast.com/t/Byk209pM

The anatomy of this PA is very clear and almost a Wyckoff(is it spelled correctly?) text book distribution phase. We have the climactic buy, the UT, the base being broken and now, this base is being tested.
What makes me think that this is a strong distribution phase is that the hourly volume is only slightly lower than the one that started this move up, at December, 7th.
Also, this move up has many inefficiencies within it that are highly probable to be closed.
So, I still expect lower prices.

It is not to say that the cannot test the 1.3125 highs but, as for now, I think we will see a pull back.

What do you think?

Cheers!
  • #23,386
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:53am Dec 13, 2012 7:53am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi mima!
I am attaching the indicator here.

Cheers!
Hello joaoborras

I have already that one. Is it the same as swingvolume 95?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #23,387
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:57am Dec 13, 2012 7:57am
Quoting mima
Hello joaoborras

I have already that one. Is it the same as swingvolume 95?
Oh, sorry.
Well, I have only this one.
Would love to see the swingvolume 95 as well.
  • #23,388
  • Dec 13, 2012 8:24am Dec 13, 2012 8:24am
Quoting Jonny 5
I can see him, and did see him, at around 5.30 yesterday evening (GMT). Could you ellaborate on how that would have affected your trading this morning? I saw that volume yesterday as SM unloading at the top of a trend channel in an uptrend on news.
Price then returns to the lower trendline this morning - high volume rejection so my thoughts were that, at worst, we should at least go up to test somewhere near yesterdays high.

Jonny, you may want to consider looking at M15 chart first rather than looking at M5 chart.
And also look a H1 chart for overall picture.

On M15, it just look like a simple down move, not a Sellers Climax and no ShakeOut yet, unlike what you mentioned.
Just a different view point.
  • #23,389
  • Dec 13, 2012 8:25am Dec 13, 2012 8:25am
Quoting joaoborras
Oh, sorry.
Well, I have only this one.
Would love to see the swingvolume 95 as well.

Well that is showing on your chart, never mind if you dont have it.
Thank you anyway.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #23,390
  • Dec 13, 2012 10:01am Dec 13, 2012 10:01am
I came to a clearing in the woods where I saw Gavin wrestling an grizzly bear..."the trend is your friend!"
Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
  • #23,391
  • Dec 13, 2012 2:49pm Dec 13, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting SimpleDev
...The wide spread down bar from Thursday the highest volume in 3 weeks, like I said that could pass as absorption volume to tank EU, but then we have the SO on Friday. It does not make sense to me to have absorption volume and then followed immediately by a HV SO which leaves me to believe that Thursday was buying and not absorption.
UPDATE:

Not surprisingly, SD was all over this. Well done.

Take a look at the chart now.

1. This was the interval we thought might be a "mini shake out". It most definitely is strength. The close is in the upper portion of the range on a wide spread down bar.

Take a look at the previous interval. Note that it is a down interval with a narrow range. Also note where the close is within that range. Now, this next interval (1) has greater volume and thus we would expect a greater range. But if the previous down bar managed to close where it did, then we would expect this down bar on increasing volume to close lower within its range. That is, if there was only selling going on. But instead we close more than 50% off the low. That can only mean demand (buying) is present here as well.

2. This narrow range down bar closing off the low is a No Supply/Test type interval. The volume is decreasing but not less than the previous two. Nevertheless it is sign of strength.

3. Wide spread up bar on high volume closing off its high with the next interval down. I think this bar is stronger than it is weak. Despite the next interval being down and the close being off the high, I think this high volume up bar is in response to the previous interval. That interval is an unconfirmed No Demand in the body of an Effort to Fall interval.

4. The down close on decreasing volume tells me that the previous bar while it did have some selling (supply) is mostly buying (demand). I would be better if this bar did not make a higher high, but it is what it is.

5. This interval has not yet closed. If it closes in the middle or high on this increased volume, I think the market will make a run to get above the Up Thrust just to the left. (3124).
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,392
  • Dec 13, 2012 2:58pm Dec 13, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting Jonny 5
Oh dear it's happened again!

If any of you chaps could give me your views on this trade WITH the trend? I even waited for price to pop back in to the range above the trendline but failed again

http://content.screencast.com/users/...c/example1.gif

Hi Jonny,

Nothing at all wrong with your idea for the trade. 2 points to note:-

 

  1. at this stage in your trading journey, you should be waiting for SO confirmation BEFORE you see a NS, and then enter as you did.
  2. I have traded this setup for a long time and I have found that if you put your SL 2 pips below the low of the SO and TP on a 1:1 ratio, it will yield the best results.

Check the setup again with the above SL & TP parameters and see how the trade would have gone.

  • #23,393
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:06pm Dec 13, 2012 3:06pm
Thought i'd throw this chart up here as well as the VSA forum. Upside target of 1.3190 is still in play. We have the potential to come back up to form a triple top breakout at 1.3100. I've already set a pending long if this happens over night when i'm asleep! If it doesn't, no harm done.

I'm also working on combining volume with the PnF charts. It's looking good so far. Just need the input of a programmer before I can go any further.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13-12-2012_EU1hrPnF.jpg Size: 205 KB
  • #23,394
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:11pm Dec 13, 2012 3:11pm
Quoting Intel
That about sums it up. However, you should learn VSA and NOT the setups. If you try to simply trade the setups I use, you WILL lose money.
BTW, you've missed a very important part of the setup.
Sorry for the delay in answering........I forgot!!!!!

You missed to look for a SOW before the UT. The whole setup is invalid without it no matter how good it might look.
  • #23,395
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:16pm Dec 13, 2012 3:16pm
Here's a great little video on trading with volume.


http://www.becomeabettertrader.com/p...-See-Video.cfm
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,396
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:16pm Dec 13, 2012 3:16pm
lots of opportunity's while i was sleeping oh well thats what i get for living in australia and not the uk lol

WENDIGO
  • #23,397
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:17pm Dec 13, 2012 3:17pm
Please can any one verify forex4you as a competent broker. I want to be sure before committing to them.
  • #23,398
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:19pm Dec 13, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Thought i'd throw this chart up here as well as the VSA forum. Upside target of 1.3190 is still in play. We have the potential to come back up to form a triple top breakout at 1.3100. I've already set a pending long if this happens over night when i'm asleep! If it doesn't, no harm done.

I'm also working on combining volume with the PnF charts. It's looking good so far. Just need the input of a programmer before I can go any further.
Hi Liam,

PnF charts used to hold a lot of interest for me. Not so much these days I'm afraid.
It's great to see someone using them, especially in tandem with VSA!
  • #23,399
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:19pm Dec 13, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
...I'm also working on combining volume with the PnF charts. It's looking good so far. Just need the input of a programmer before I can go any further.
The guy's name escapes me at the moment, but there is a P&F expert that uses average true range as a proxy for volume. He has been on a couple of TG webinars.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,400
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:28pm Dec 13, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting HiddenGap
After my last post, I wanted to post this. Richard D is TradeGuider's newest trader/pitch man. He is a scalper and (apperently) does not mind counter trend trading. If you are looking to get a quick 10-15 pips with the occational homerun of 30 pips, take a look.

Gavin's way is not the only way..............



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82Yo9...JLQRyQ&index=2
A lot of similarities between our trading styles. I wonder if he has a name on FF?
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