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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,361
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:34pm Dec 12, 2012 3:34pm
After my last post, I wanted to post this. Richard D is TradeGuider's newest trader/pitch man. He is a scalper and (apperently) does not mind counter trend trading. If you are looking to get a quick 10-15 pips with the occational homerun of 30 pips, take a look.

Gavin's way is not the only way..............



Inserted Video
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,362
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:35pm Dec 12, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting pres78

Looking at HG's chart he calls note to the fact that we find support at the UHV bar low (black volume bar 2 bars before the UT). The fact that we see support at this bars low and then print that UT at the high shows that the market is in fact ranging within the first UHV bar. The safest thing to do is wait for a break and a test of this volume. To short a ND within this bar after seeing support and since we are and have been trending upward is very risky as there is no confirmed room to move down and sellers have proven no strength.
Pres, thank you for the second time today!! I think this sums the issue up and annoyingly is something that I wrote today in to my new trading plan for the new year - DO NOT SELL IN TO SUPPORT AND DO NOT BUY IN TO RESISTANCE Seems the plan is going to be even more necessary than I first thought.

It always amazes me how I can see mistakes quite easily on someone else's charts but I'm always a bit blind to my own until someone points out the issue. So thanks Pres and thanks HG for taking the time to look over my chart and answer so well.
  • #23,363
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:22pm Dec 12, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting Jonny 5
They're HLC bars but in MT4's ususal shonky style! They only display the close but for some due to some MT4 shonkiness they have to display like that ie right across the bar.
I love HLC bars - its just a shame that not many platforms support them. I also use trade interceptor which looks much neater for HLC but I find MT4 easier as it's what I'm used to.
Yeah the bars look really weird, quite disorientating actually! Trade Interceptor is a nice bit of software, quite like it myself. I'm currently in conversation with them about fixing the Point and Figure implementation. Let's just say they were a lot more willing to listen than Sierra Charts were!
  • #23,364
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:13pm Dec 12, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting pres78
1 Hour chart attached...

Back at an important supply zone. The last two times we went passed 3100 with any follow through we made it a mere 50 pips (not even 50 to accurate) before falling back below.

This time we made it back to 3100 quicker and after a much less deep sell off. What do people make of this price action? Does the quicker return represent SOS or SOW at this zone? Curious if anyone has any thoughts on this. Either way we should see some sort of set-up and reaction at this area.

Time will tell.
This thread exploded today..

I just wanted to comment on the 1h chart.

We did see supply today.. but what seems odd to me is that price is not being held up its steadily drifting down. I think our old friend 3025 is going to be the key level today, if testing or bullish volume comes in 3150 could be taken out.

Looking at daily, this is our 4th attempt to break 3150 since September, either way if 3150 is broken or rejected a big move is in store since basically we have been going side ways for 3 months.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,365
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:16am Dec 13, 2012 3:16am
Oh dear it's happened again!

If any of you chaps could give me your views on this trade WITH the trend? I even waited for price to pop back in to the range above the trendline but failed again

http://content.screencast.com/users/...c/example1.gif
  • #23,366
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:33am Dec 13, 2012 3:33am
Quoting Jonny 5
Oh dear it's happened again!

If any of you chaps could give me your views on this trade WITH the trend? I even waited for price to pop back in to the range above the trendline but failed again

http://content.screencast.com/users/...c/example1.gif
Hi Jonny,
sorry but what was your trade? Did you take a short? If so, where was it and what was the result?
  • #23,367
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:35am Dec 13, 2012 3:35am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi Jonny,
sorry but what was your trade? Did you take a short? If so, where was it and what was the result?
Break of the high of the NS - the outcome can be seen on the chart unfortunately.
  • #23,368
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:43am Dec 13, 2012 3:43am
Understanding supply and demand is pre-request.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #23,369
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:46am Dec 13, 2012 3:46am
Quoting Jonny 5
Break of the high of the NS - the outcome can be seen on the chart unfortunately.
I see. you went long so.
Well, IMHO, it was not a bad trade! You was reading the tape correctly and the market reacted as it should to that no suppy. No supply, than the market must go up UNTIL IT FINDS NEW SELLERS(or the contrary, go down until it finds new buyers).
One thing that we should keep in mind in that price movement is a function of liquidity, that the markets are always searching for buyers or sellers(price discovery if you will).

So, our goal is to buy on demand and sell on supply, and sell on supply and buy back on demand. And we must be very honest with ourselves in regarding this market reality. If the distance between our buy and the next supply level is only 5 or 10 pips, we should take only that, until the market tells us that it will go for longer distances.
Or, if we don't like the potential profit area, we don't take the trade.

I learned it myself. I was always looking for 1000 pips every day but it didn't happens. So, I take what the market is willing to allow me.

VSA principles are great to read the tape. Maybe, if you incorporate that idea in your targets plan, you will see when and where(and why) the market is most likely to turn.

IMHO, again, your trade was not bad. The only issue is that maybe, you was looking for too many pips.
Also, remember the time of the day. There are times where breakouts are unlikely due to low volume and liquidity.

Hope it helps a bit!
Cheers!
  • #23,370
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:05am Dec 13, 2012 4:05am
Hi, I'd like to share this short I took on euro today: http://screencast.com/t/t7WEEHHfF

sorry that the chart is a bit cluttered.
I wanted to show it because it shows 2 important things:
1. it is ok to go take "counter trend" trades if the supply/demand equation allows you to do so. In this case, the trend is up by any technical measures. The only thing that shows that we can go for the short is the presence of heavy selling pressure in the background shown by VSA principles.
But I do strongly agree with HG that in the other cases(no strong SOW/SOS in the background), we must follow the trend, until we have a strong SOW/SOS
2. be aware of the next demand area because it is likely the market will turn again there or at least stop a bit. So, it is a good place to take profits.

Cheers!
  • #23,371
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:06am Dec 13, 2012 5:06am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi, I'd like to share this short I took on euro today:...
Cheers!
Can you post swingvolume 95 indicator please?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #23,372
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:07am Dec 13, 2012 5:07am
Quoting Jonny 5
Oh dear it's happened again!

If any of you chaps could give me your views on this trade WITH the trend? I even waited for price to pop back in to the range above the trendline but failed again

http://content.screencast.com/users/...c/example1.gif
The buying climax you have marked is wrong, this is more like a selling climax that got bought, the no supply you have marked is more like a test.

A buying climax is on an up bar after a period of rising prices, opposite for a selling climax.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,373
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:11am Dec 13, 2012 5:11am
Quoting mima
Understanding supply and demand is pre-request.
thanks for that
  • #23,374
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:11am Dec 13, 2012 5:11am
Quoting gez40
The buying climax you have marked is wrong, this is more like a selling climax that got bought, the no supply you have marked is more like a test.

A buying climax is on an up bar after a period of rising prices, opposite for a selling climax.
Sorry, meant selling climax
  • #23,375
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:20am Dec 13, 2012 5:20am
Quoting joaoborras
I see. you went long so.
Well, IMHO, it was not a bad trade! You was reading the tape correctly and the market reacted as it should to that no suppy. No supply, than the market must go up UNTIL IT FINDS NEW SELLERS(or the contrary, go down until it finds new buyers).
One thing that we should keep in mind in that price movement is a function of liquidity, that the markets are always searching for buyers or sellers(price discovery if you will).

So, our goal is to buy on demand and sell on supply, and sell on supply and buy back on demand. And...
Thank you for taking the time to post all of that helpful info. It's refreshing to hear that sometimes VSA entries don't yield that great a pip haul or even dare I say it, don't work sometimes. But hey it's all about having an edge right?

I certainly understand where you're coming from regarding the expectancy of big moves every day - I definitely need to lower my expectations and look more for consistency than huge wins.

Thanks again joaoborras
  • #23,376
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:24am Dec 13, 2012 5:24am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi, I'd like to share this short I took on euro today: http://screencast.com/t/t7WEEHHfF

sorry that the chart is a bit cluttered.
I wanted to show it because it shows 2 important things:
1. it is ok to go take "counter trend" trades if the supply/demand equation allows you to do so. In this case, the trend is up by any technical measures. The only thing that shows that we can go for the short is the presence of heavy selling pressure in the background shown by VSA principles.
But I do strongly agree with HG that in the other...
i had the same trade had the 2 up thrust bars with increasing climax buying followed by a failed up thrust i was straight onto it. took it all the way down to 1.305 got a bit worried when there was some stopping volume at 64 so i took half off there.. trades like that prove to me vsa is the only way to trade for me.

WENDIGO
  • #23,377
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:31am Dec 13, 2012 5:31am
Jonny 5

Scroll back your M5 chart, you should see text there: Hello Trader! My name is Yao Ming.
  • #23,378
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:42am Dec 13, 2012 5:42am
Quoting juhanimi
Jonny 5

Scroll back your M5 chart, you should see text there: Hello Trader! My name is Yao Ming.
I can see him, and did see him, at around 5.30 yesterday evening (GMT). Could you ellaborate on how that would have affected your trading this morning? I saw that volume yesterday as SM unloading at the top of a trend channel in an uptrend on news.
Price then returns to the lower trendline this morning - high volume rejection so my thoughts were that, at worst, we should at least go up to test somewhere near yesterdays high.
  • #23,379
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:04am Dec 13, 2012 6:04am
Quoting Jonny 5
Oh dear it's happened again!

If any of you chaps could give me your views on this trade WITH the trend? I even waited for price to pop back in to the range above the trendline but failed again
Hi Jonny,

Everyone will have a different opinion, but personally I don't think this was ever a trade worth taking.

You've identified the selling climax followed by the shakeout and with the trendline included it's beginning to shape into a nice set up. But you need to see a nice up bar to confirm that the shakeout was actually showing some strength. The test/NS is just in the wrong place. It even closes in the lower half of the bar which isn't great either. It's not actually testing anything in particular, it's lower than the low of the high volume bar, and it even closes lower. Sure you get a nice reaction up but it's after this reaction that I'd be looking for the test or NS, which never comes.

Another thing to consider in my chart below, trend is so subjective. I just eyeballed the trends so they might not be parallel, you get the gist of it though. After the FOMC last night we've been trending down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,380
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:42am Dec 13, 2012 6:42am
Jonny
I would not think about longs, when price is under Yao Ming.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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