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  • #9,481
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:20am Dec 13, 2012 7:20am
Back again for lunch. Wish I could have traded this today. I have harped on about not just looking at the Higher time frames and I know that there are those of you among us who consider lower time frames the "Devils Spawn" but look at what you could have been forewarned about if you had just glanced every now and then at a lower time frame, and that entry at the beginning of the day, I would kill for entries like that. Using divergence could have almost predicted every turn of today´s market. I have never understood why some traders want to wear dark glasses on a cloudy day.

Ignore the macd at the bottom it is something I am trying out for my umbrella trades.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,482
  • Dec 13, 2012 7:27am Dec 13, 2012 7:27am
Quoting munirpt
Hi guys

Just wanted to share my trade today for 25 pips, which I am very proud of.... :-)
Here is my thought process.
Although I saw the 1H cross of TDI + bearish divergence, I knew that there were some news about CHF at 8h30 (USD/CHF is highly correlated with EUR/USD), so I decided that I would not enter before the news event.
After seeing the news candle after the event, I realized that the impulse leg was down.
At that point I had 2 reasons to enter :
- 1H TF TDI cross with divergence
- Impulse leg on 15TF, breaking previous structure

The next...
I am so proud of you. Superb analysis. 25 "Safe" pips. Perfect example of controlling risk. I bet I have more of your charts for reference than you have of mine. And thank you for reminding me, I had actually forgotten about the USD/CHF correlation and news.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,483
  • Edited 10:54am Dec 13, 2012 9:45am | Edited 10:54am
Long EU target is 1.3110 I´m at B/E +5

UPDATE

Closed for +22 pips at 1.3098 following divergence.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,484
  • Edited 11:53am Dec 13, 2012 11:40am | Edited 11:53am
Hi guys

This is a chart to explain my thought process on a new way of entering the market using Dee methodology using the 15 TF.
The chart is self-explanatory if you have some knowledge of price action.
Would like to reinforce that you find the exact entries signal at similar spots using the 1H chart - This method only helps you minimizing the drawdown.
Im also not sure if this works everyday, since its something I am testing recently....
Im sure some days , price will just shoot and not give an opportunity to enter the trade in a retracement.
The chosen targets are very obvious but please ask any questions if you get confused.

Would like to hear your comments about this entry method.

Thanks

Munir
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  • #9,485
  • Dec 13, 2012 12:54pm Dec 13, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting dee50
Long EU target is 1.3110 I´m at B/E +5

UPDATE

Closed for +22 pips at 1.3098 following divergence.
Went long at the similar point based on my analysis - Maybe i'm getting there

For
Pullback on last red candle - long lower wick and small body
TDI moving up
TDI and signal line closing in - looking for a cross next candle
Stoch moving up and above the 20
PA seems to have bounced off SR at 1.3043

Against
No TDI Cross yet

Trade
Waited for price to clear previous candle
SL set at -20 pips
TP at 1.3098 just before BRN and area of previous resistance
Trailing stop at -15 pips

Result
Trailing stop was hit an trade closed for 1 pip

Reflection
Maybe I should have waited for the TDI cross (entered too early)
A 15 pip trailing stop might have been overly cautious
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  • #9,486
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:11pm Dec 13, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting munirpt
Hi guys

This is a chart to explain my thought process on a new way of entering the market using Dee methodology using the 15 TF.
The chart is self-explanatory if you have some knowledge of price action.
Would like to reinforce that you find the exact entries signal at similar spots using the 1H chart - This method only helps you minimizing the drawdown.
Im also not sure if this works everyday, since its something I am testing recently....
Im sure some days , price will just shoot and not give an opportunity to enter the trade in a retracement.
The...
So what is the purpose of "The dee method"?
Since we here trade on the H1... do we use this method to find an entry if the trigger candle allready moved a long way and the direct entry would be "to late"?.
Thoughts are things
  • #9,487
  • Edited 1:50pm Dec 13, 2012 1:18pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting munirpt
Hi guys

This is a chart to explain my thought process on a new way of entering the market using Dee methodology using the 15 TF.
Thanks for sharing Munir

I certainly get what you show here and it makes a lot of sense pulling the trigger once price has finished a retrace. I presume the idea is that a much smaller SL can be used by entering at the limit of retracement.

I'm interested to know more about the second set up on your chart.
There seemed to be something of a retracement earlier in the impulse leg - candle 4 and 5 where we see a spinning top and doji
Why was the Fib not used at that point ?
I see that the retracement from the end of the impulse leg reached 50. Do you just wait to see if it bounces off any one of the fibs before entering ?

Thanks
Stephen

EDIT

I just tried running the Fibs on the earlier impulse as I mentioned above.
Yes, that would have worked too by the looks of it.
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  • #9,488
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:25pm Dec 13, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting Quezoy
So what is the purpose of "The dee method"?
Since we here trade on the H1... do we use this method to find an entry if the trigger candle allready moved a long way and the direct entry would be "to late"?.
Exactly!

When the signal candle is huge, you have 4 options in my opinion :

1. Let the trade go
2. Entry at close of the candle - if it already moved a lot, you might face a major drawdown and your risk reward might not be enough to justify entering
3. Enter when price breaks previous candle high/low - like Phx does
4. Entry on retracement on the 15 tf

I used to enter based on option 3, but now I'm testing this option.

Advantages of option 3 over option 4
- you might get a better price
- price might not retrace and you already are in the trade

disadvantages of option 3 over option 4:
- you run the risk of getting faked out if price comes back making a double bottom/top

As everything in life each path has its own good and bad things. You just have to choose one that fits better your trading personality and risk tolarance.
  • #9,489
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:34pm Dec 13, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting stephen77
Thanks for sharing Munir

I certainly get what you show here and it makes a lot of sense pulling the trigger once price has finished a retrace. I presume the idea is that a much smaller SL can be used by entering at the limit of retracement.

I'm interested to know more about the second set up on your chart.
There seemed to be something of a retracement earlier in the impulse leg - candle 4 and 5 where we see a spinning top and doji
Why was the Fib not used at that point ?
I see that the retracement from the end of the impulse leg reached...
Hi Stephen

The reason why I didn't consider the impulse leg that you highlighted are the following :

1 - price didn't close above my 2 emas - so not valid change of trend according to my view
2 - there was major news at 13h30 and I don't trade before the news. I wait for the news effect to settle down ( normally 30 minutes) and then I enter if a setup presents itself.

The impulse leg you highlighted is valid because it broke previous structure resistance, but for me to enter long I need more than that.

Hope that it helps.

Munir
  • #9,490
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:42pm Dec 13, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting stephen77
Went long at the similar point based on my analysis - Maybe i'm getting there

For
Pullback on last red candle - long lower wick and small body
TDI moving up
TDI and signal line closing in - looking for a cross next candle
Stoch moving up and above the 20
PA seems to have bounced off SR at 1.3043

Against
No TDI Cross yet

Trade
Waited for price to clear previous candle
SL set at -20 pips
TP at 1.3098 just before BRN and area of previous resistance
Trailing stop at -15 pips

Result
Trailing stop...
Just a word of encouragement.
When I started Trading ( less that a year ago...) I used to do exactly the same as you are doing, writing the reasons to take the trade , reasons not to trade, put notes on my charts and analyze my mistakes after the trade is over.
I kept it in a electronic journal with my analysis for the day on various time frames drawing support resistance, trend lines, spotting divergences, etc.

It takes a lot of work, but it was one the most important aspects for my progress.

So in simple words, you are on the right track. Keep posting, keep studying and eventually you will get there!
wish you success!

Munir
  • #9,491
  • Edited 11:14pm Dec 13, 2012 10:49pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting munirpt
Hi guys

Just wanted to share my trade today for 25 pips, which I am very proud of.... :-)
Here is my thought process.
Although I saw the 1H cross of TDI + bearish divergence, I knew that there were some news about CHF at 8h30 (USD/CHF is highly correlated with EUR/USD), so I decided that I would not enter before the news event.
After seeing the news candle after the event, I realized that the impulse leg was down.
At that point I had 2 reasons to enter :
- 1H TF TDI cross with divergence
- Impulse leg on 15TF, breaking previous structure

The...
Thanks for posting your chart . I had an old s/r line at 1.3073, something I learned from you a while ago , which ties in with your fibo , but i cant see from where you draw this fibo , can you please explain - I'm still trying to learn fibs
edit - I see my mistake now , so now ok I got it .
  • #9,492
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:50am Dec 14, 2012 2:50am
Quoting robuk
Thanks for posting your chart . I had an old s/r line at 1.3073, something I learned from you a while ago , which ties in with your fibo , but i cant see from where you draw this fibo , can you please explain - I'm still trying to learn fibs
edit - I see my mistake now , so now ok I got it .
great!
  • #9,493
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:58am Dec 14, 2012 2:58am
Quoting munirpt
Just a word of encouragement.
When I started Trading ( less that a year ago...

So in simple words, you are on the right track. Keep posting, keep studying and eventually you will get there!
wish you success!

Munir
Hi Munir

Thank you for your encouragement - it certainly helps to hear that I'm on the right lines.
It's also good to hear that you have got where you are by doing the same things ... and in less than a year.
Will keep persevering, studying, posting and learning.
Thanks
  • #9,494
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:01am Dec 14, 2012 3:01am
Short
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Thoughts are things
  • #9,495
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:15am Dec 14, 2012 4:15am
Quoting Quezoy
Short
Also short when PA broke and closed below the 1.3080 psychological level on 15 min TF
PA seems to be stalling here now
  • #9,496
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:23am Dec 14, 2012 4:23am
Yap.
I wanted to take half at Asia low 1.307 but was not at my computer.
We need to monitor this closely now. If it closes above 1.31 Im out.

Also divergence.
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Thoughts are things
  • #9,497
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:04am Dec 14, 2012 5:04am
Strong pullback on EU and my BE was hit. Since there was no real momentum down I didnt wanted to take chances and put my SL down.
Still short EJ but I predict the same fate...

I'll maybe enter long if I see a setup.
Thoughts are things
  • #9,498
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:24am Dec 14, 2012 5:24am
Hello Munirpt ,

short ?
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  • #9,499
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:30am Dec 14, 2012 5:30am
Quoting thomi
Hello Munirpt ,

short ?
Hi thomi

not yet for some reasons:

impulse leg was very fast, so retracement can be very large.
The place you entered is s logical place to enter.
What i dont like is that price is above all my EMAS
Also green and red are very distant.
but we are approaching 61.8 retracement and RN. thats the major defense line for bears.
I will wait for a more clear entry signal, so far, im a bit confused. Also we went back up into the 1H trendline....
  • #9,500
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:35am Dec 14, 2012 5:35am
In 2 hours there are news, US core CPI, so I wont trade till then.
But I've marked a scenario I would enter later.
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Thoughts are things
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