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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #19,781
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:14pm Dec 12, 2012 10:14pm
This was first posted on 10/3/12.

Quoting DaddyBear
I have studied the daily/weekly chart pattern numerous times. I believe the channel shown below has the highest probability to occur. Based on this channel, the UTL is around 1.11xxx which shall be reached in the near future.

The real fundamental of all fundamentals is the law of the market. While people are looking for any clues from all man-made events, they forget there is an invisible and yet powerful force behind everything we can see. We as human beings don't know in advance what this force is going to do next. But, we may be able to project...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1349066892

The updated EWC is below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1349317469
daddybearforex. com
  • #19,782
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:17pm Dec 12, 2012 10:17pm
Quote
Originally Posted by DaddyBear http://images.forexfactory.net/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6067265#post6067265)
[i]I have studied the daily/weekly chart pattern numerous times. I believe the channel shown below has the highest probability to occur. Based on this channel, the UTL is around 1.11xxx which shall be reached in the near future.

The real fundamental of all fundamentals is the law of the market. While people are looking for any clues from all man-made events,...

DB, I figured as much and I agree as I am long. Just curious as to what others may think. Thank you.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #19,783
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:18pm Dec 12, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is the reason I'd say EWP is the Law of the Markets. The market are moved by the traders' heard mentality not the fundamentals. Mastering EWP is like adding wings to a tiger.
Or wings on an Alien......
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #19,784
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:22pm Dec 12, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting petehnm
Yes I'm still in NM.. Albuquerque... thanks I'll take all the luck the universe will give..I will start sharing more as well..
I have flown over Albuquerque NM in my spaceship before on my way to Roswell NM......just south of the city....
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #19,785
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:25pm Dec 12, 2012 10:25pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Thoughts? In the long run, market wins and exchange rate goes where it should be but in the short run can be tough to fight. I believe RBA would rather intervene than cut rates further as they have been skeptical and critical of ultra low rates. So, every intervention is a buying opportunity?

As posted previously, half position still long.
IMO, I doubt RBA would intervene the Aussie exchange rate. Unlike Japan and Switzerland, Australia is more like the US and UK. Have you ever heard either the US or UK intervene their currencies?
daddybearforex. com
  • #19,786
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:27pm Dec 12, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
IMO, I doubt RBA would intervene the Aussie exchange rate. Unlike Japan and Switzerland, Australia is more like the US and UK. Have you ever heard either the US or UK intervene their currencies?
In that case, we can expect heavy dose of QE from Australia^^

Anyway, if Australia really wants to lower the currency value, it should lower the interest rate by a much greater margin - the reason why USA does QE is because the interest rate is already pretty much at 0.
  • #19,787
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:28pm Dec 12, 2012 10:28pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
DB, I figured as much and I agree as I am long. Just curious as to what others may think. Thank you.
To be honest with you, before this week, I did not get anyone's endorsement of my weekly EWC.
daddybearforex. com
  • #19,788
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:28pm Dec 12, 2012 10:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is the FINALE party I mentioned a few weeks ago in this forum.
Final Party? ? ? WTH?.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Black Hole ahead db.jpg Size: 193 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #19,789
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:31pm Dec 12, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting forexalien
Or wings on an Alien......
.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355193109
daddybearforex. com
  • #19,790
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:36pm Dec 12, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting forexalien
Final Party? ? ? WTH?.......
alien, it's the end of the Time Tunnel.
daddybearforex. com
  • #19,791
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:36pm Dec 12, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
IMO, I doubt RBA would intervene the Aussie exchange rate. Unlike Japan and Switzerland, Australia is more like the US and UK. Have you ever heard either the US or UK intervene their currencies?
The only way Australia can affect the exchange rate is by entering the market agressively (like Switzerland and Japan) or change interest rates.

If they lower interest rates agressively, they will deter foreign investment in the country, and Australia can't afford to do that, the need foreign money.

Stephens is between a rock n a hard place really.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #19,792
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:40pm Dec 12, 2012 10:40pm
Quote
DB: Have you ever heard either the US or UK intervene their currencies?

Yes, Fed does now, US Treasury used to when they had a "strong dollar policy" back in the 90's. They would do it or just threaten to do it to manipulate the USD.

Bank of England yes, e.g. Black Wednesday.

Although again I believe in charts and the answers are there if we know how to find them.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #19,793
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:57pm Dec 12, 2012 10:57pm
The dollar is the Stephen Bradbury of currency markets - ‘winning’ by default because all its rivals fell in a heap, AAP writes coming up with a befitting image.

Like the Aussie skater’s unlikely Olympic medial win, the dollar remains at sky-high levels because of the sloppy performance of its bigger, and normally stronger, counterparts.


By all rights, the dollar should have fallen back below $US1.00 in the past few months; commodity prices have fallen, economic growth has slowed and interest rates are lower and consumers and businesses are generally pretty depressed. But this week it climbed above $US1.05 to reach fresh three-month highs.


ANZ interest rate strategist Andrew Salter expects it to remain around $US1.05 throughout 2013 and possibly hit $US1.10.


It’s not that the Australian economy is doing particularly well, he says, it’s that most major developed economies - Europe, Britain, Japan and the United States - are weak and likely to stay that way.Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve’s efforts to stimulate growth have pushed the US dollar lower against its Australian counterpart.


‘‘The problem at the moment is that Australia at the moment looks ok but everything else in the world looks pretty poor,’’ he says.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-shares-lack-direction-20121213-2bayy.html#ixzz2EuA5Natz

  • #19,794
  • Dec 12, 2012 11:00pm Dec 12, 2012 11:00pm
Quoting HelloOz
The dollar is the Stephen Bradbury of currency markets - ‘winning’ by default because all its rivals fell in a heap, AAP writes coming up with a befitting image.

Like the Aussie skater’s unlikely Olympic medial win, the dollar remains at sky-high levels because of the sloppy performance of its bigger, and normally stronger, counterparts.


By all rights, the dollar should have fallen back below $US1.00 in the past few months; commodity prices have fallen, economic growth has slowed and interest rates are lower and consumers...
I give him (Andrew Salter) a 50% chance of being correct.
  • #19,795
  • Dec 13, 2012 12:03am Dec 13, 2012 12:03am
WOW! Did any of you see this gem today?

Happy Trades,
fxstir
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  • #19,796
  • Dec 13, 2012 12:30am Dec 13, 2012 12:30am
Quoting HelloOz

‘‘The problem at the moment is that Australia at the moment looks ok but everything else in the world looks pretty poor,’’ he says.

And that's it in a nutshell... the US $ is being debased massively with QE'zzing and the AU$ can't be debased as fast. The only way to debase the Aussie is by lowering interest dramatically, and that's counterproductive to what Australia needs... foreign investment.

Unfortunately the Aussie will stay high, and most likely go a lot higher... I've seen educated predictions that it could go to US$1.30
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #19,797
  • Dec 13, 2012 12:40am Dec 13, 2012 12:40am
Quoting pt49
And that's it in a nutshell... the US $ is being debased massively with QE'zzing and the AU$ can't be debased as fast. The only way to debase the Aussie is by lowering interest dramatically, and that's counterproductive to what Australia needs... foreign investment.

Unfortunately the Aussie will stay high, and most likely go a lot higher... I've seen educated predictions that it could go to US$1.30
Why would foreign companies heavily invest in Australia given the dollar value?
There was an article a while back where even Chinese investors commented that Australia is slowly becoming the most expensive place to invest in - I'm not talking investing money in Australian banks, but rather in property, factories, commodities, etc.

China, on the other hand, has cheap currency, thus cheap labour, and that is primarily one of the main reasons why it has been invested in by so many foreign companies. High interest rate is far from being a necessity for investors. That, of course, is merely my opinion.
  • #19,798
  • Dec 13, 2012 12:53am Dec 13, 2012 12:53am
These days, many sovereign banks see AUD as a safe haven currency -
The more sovereigns see AUD in this light, the higher AUD will go.

What is interesting is that we have all witnessed what happens when sovereigns pick one nation's currency as safe haven. CHF/JPY - these are just some of the examples - where foreign sovereign banks would buy the currency to such high levels that the economies of the said countries would begin to crumble to pieces.

USA, on the other hand, with usd being a safe haven currency, has to print billions of dollars to keep the dollar low - so that it wouldn't kill its economy in the process.

Everyone is hoping that China's Yuan will enter the forex market - so that sovereigns could buy it (and, accidentally or not, kill its economy in the process). China has been very smart thus far by keeping Yuan away from the Forex market - if its economists have any brains, it is unlikely that we'll see Yuan on the market anytime soon.
  • #19,799
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:04am Dec 13, 2012 1:04am
Nope look at the CNY/AUD chart. Its basically unchanged. Its not a China and Australian story. Its a story of how usd is getting hammered by FED printing. Everyone else is just trying to park their money in a country that isn't printing money and killing their savings at the drop of a hat.
  • #19,800
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:12am Dec 13, 2012 1:12am
opened a small long here,sl 0530
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
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