The Really Useless Thread

easy peasy this week.

Bastards!

again,

These stops up north, when they pop, are going to be immaculate. Stops come from the weekly... and beyond.

We've got two more years to play. Yay! Bunga Bunga



DJ Fed: 14 Of 19 Officials Expect to Hold Off on Rate Hike Until at Least 2015

By Michael S. Derby WASHINGTON--Most Federal Reserve officials continue to expect the central bank to first raise interest rates in 2015, in a projection consistent with new monetary policy thresholds announced by the central bank Wednesday.
Fed officials also on balance downgraded slightly their collective outlook for growth, while projecting touch-lower ranges of unemployment and inflation compared to forecasts released in September.

On the monetary policy front, 14 of the 19 Federal Open Market Committee members now believe the first increase in monetary policy will come in 2015 or later. Two believe the Fed will raise rates in 2013. In September, 12 FOMC members expected a hike in 2015 and one saw it happening in 2016.
The projections come as part of the release of the FOMC's official outlook for growth, unemployment and inflation. The bank's central tendency forecasts are based on the response of the 19 FOMC members, and omit the lowest and highest responses.

The Fed's outlook on unemployment and inflation has taken on added importance as central bankers moved at their policy meeting to provide greater guidance on the factors that would cause the institution to change monetary policy. Dissatisfied with expressing the monetary policy outlook based on calendar dates, the FOMC offered what it called "thresholds" that, once crossed, would call for a possible tightening in policy.

Instead of arguing short term rates will stay near zero until the middle of 2015, the central bank now says rates will stay very low as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5%, so long as expected inflation holds below 2.5%. The central bank said its new thresholds are consistent with what its calendar-based rate outlook had been projecting.

Policymakers' central tendency forecast for growth for this year was revised to 1.7% to 1.8%, from 1.7% to 2.0% in the estimate released in September. For 2013, the growth central tendency projection was moved a touch lower to 2.3% to 3.0%, while the projection for 2014 growth stands at 3.0% to 3.5%. For 2015, officials revised down their forecast to 3.0% to 3.7%, from 3.0% to 3.8%.

On the jobs front, officials now project the unemployment rate central tendency range for this year to stand between 7.8% and 7.9%, from September's 8.0% to 8.2%. The current unemployment rate is 7.7%, and the central bank has frequently underestimated the improvement in this key barometer of economic health.

For 2013, the central tendency for the unemployment rate now stands at 7.4% to 7.7%, from the prior estimate of 7.6% to 7.9%. The Fed's 2014 unemployment range was revised up to 6.8% to 7.3%, while the 2015 forecast now stands at 6.0% to 6.6%. Long range, the Fed sees unemployment ranging between 5.2% and 6.0%.

The Fed sees no threat to its 2% inflation rate target through 2015. In 2013, it sees overall inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index coming in between 1.3% and 2.0%, from September's 1.6% to 2.0%. Stripped of food and energy, the central tendency for inflation next year stands between 1.6% and 1.9%, down from the last estimate.

The release of the FOMC forecasts comes in the wake of the central bank's decision earlier Wednesday to press forward with its monetary policy stimulus campaign aimed at spurring a better level of growth.

At its gathering, the FOMC decided to continue forward, as most expected it would, with its open-end program of mortgage bond buying. Officials also decided to replace a program that sold short dated Treasurys owned by the Fed and bought a like amount of long-dated securities with an effort that will buy outright $45 billion in government debt. The program known by most as Operation Twist was scheduled to end at the close of the month and supply constraints would have made it difficult for the Fed to have continued the effort.

The Fed's forecasts are surrounded by more uncertainty than usual. While the central bank projects continued growth and a decline in the unemployment rate, the still unresolved battle over the resolution of the so-called fiscal cliff continues to cast a huge shadow over the outlook.
Unless elected leaders can reach a deal, a series of automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts will kick in at the start of the new year. Many fear the severity of these changes could send the economy back into recession. Fed officials have said repeatedly they will not be able to use monetary policy to offset the drag on the economy created by a failure to avert the fiscal cliff.


Write to Michael S. Derby at [email protected] (END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 12, 2012 14:02 ET (19:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

The FED closing the circle with the Economic Projection. Very clear and very adequate approach in my view.

In a nutshell what the FED has just done is given: Stability and Certainty for the mid term. Those are conditions "sine qua non" for economic growth and recovery that we haven't have in the last +4 years.

As soon as the politicians in Washington decide to reach an agreement and join the the right track of common sense and rationality, we will officially enter in normal times from 2013. End result of the year is: FED 3 vs US Politicians 0

In my reading is very welcome news for the US and the world. Get ready for reduced volatility trading and to adjust trading styles for next year....

sisse

You hit the nail on the head with that one. Currency trading as we knew it is over. Thank you Federal Reserve Board (Glad I still kept up with equity and index futures trading). Time to hone some new skills, that's for sure.

Trying to wrap my head around what the Fed's balance sheet will look like at the end of 2015.

Just...Can't...Do...It


http://i50.tinypic.com/2eoz8fd.jpg

back to the viagra (fiscal cliff) either or we fuck or get fucked, feds can't do shitt about it if they go over the cliff

i'll be wroking on it , but i like it the way its

berrny shitt is helping obamoo now with the viagra

equities are losing steam and berrny still talking


dam i know i am talking to my self WTF no bastards in here

sisse get ready t long from 1412-1400 rather have 1400

QE4-Eva!

momo

Clear the Cliff...and Evans Rule will be the next buzzword.

Every positive US data point from here on out should bring closer the end of Fed intervention. Not good for "the free money brigade." Could be a return to red figures to keep the dream alive. (<--very pessimistic and tongue in cheek )

and the inflation thats what kills the dam cow market dont like what he said about rates if inflation gos up

its jerk off time

Hairs on the back of me neck stood up reading that!

Fine place for some freak weather. Must have been glorious...aside from that incident.

Way ahead of you...

...
Bernie The Grinch...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...c-announcement

"Regime Change": The Critical Message In Today's FOMC Announcement