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  • #9,421
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:42am Dec 12, 2012 2:42am
Quoting mierzyk
What your made you take that trade?

Thanks in advance.
Why donīt you answer that question your self and then ask if your analysis is correct. You will learn a lot more, faster, by trying to work it out. Mark up a chart with your analysis. What is the worst that can happen??

Here are some clues
Support
Divergence
OB
BRN
TDI- Red & Green Yellow
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,422
  • Edited 4:48am Dec 12, 2012 4:00am | Edited 4:48am
Quoting dee50
Why donīt you answer that question your self and then ask if your analysis is correct. You will learn a lot more, faster, by trying to work it out. Mark up a chart with your analysis. What is the worst that can happen??
I didn't enter that trade but I'm also keen to learn so here's my assessment

For:
PA and Oscillator showing positive divergence
Recent support held several times around 1.2880
PA held at BRN 1.2900
Green and red above yellow on TDI
Widening upward angle between green and red

Against:
No cross of the TDI
Entry on third blue candle rather than 1st or 2nd
No pullback candle for entry

Without confirmation of a TDI cross I didn't see a clear entry signal.
What did I miss / get wrong.
I'd welcome any feedback on this.
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  • #9,423
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:07am Dec 12, 2012 5:07am
Stephen:

If I may offer my humble oppinion referring to your chart and what you said.... I think that the main factors you didn't mention is that the TDI had a good angle, Price had bounced three times off of support. The last red candle represented a higher swing low. And the entry candle closed higher than resistance. This last one would have been the most important to me and a sweet deal it was as it just barely closed above and those are my favorite because it improves risk reward. I could also mention that personally I use elliot wave map to help digest this scenario, but I don't think this thread uses such, so I'll respectfully keep that garbage out.

Sincerely,

LL
"IN CASH WE TRUST"
  • #9,424
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:28am Dec 12, 2012 5:28am
Thanks LazyLobster

I'm trying to develop my understanding of price action and your input helps.

In the original pdf for this method the signals are
pullback candles
PA breaking out of a range
But from what I'm starting to learn here, there's way more to it.

I'm spending as much time as I can studying charts in the hope that all the nuances of PA will gradually become familiar allowing me to make better assessments.
  • #9,425
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:36am Dec 12, 2012 5:36am
To help understand how that market moves in waves and how those waves interlock on higher timeframes and then change direction, check out the link below. I feel this is the start of PA and continues to formations (pullback candles, and many others). But understand the chart and realize that this is kind of a map that looks a little different on every chart. I consider this background to what everyone is trying to achieve in this thread.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

Sincerely,

LL
"IN CASH WE TRUST"
  • #9,426
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:36am Dec 12, 2012 5:36am
Quoting stephen77
I didn't enter that trade but I'm also keen to learn so here's my assessment

For:
PA and Oscillator showing positive divergence
Recent support held several times around 1.2880
PA held at BRN 1.2900
Green and red above yellow on TDI
Widening upward angle between green and red

Against:
No cross of the TDI
Entry on third blue candle rather than 1st or 2nd
No pullback candle for entry

Without confirmation of a TDI cross I didn't see a clear entry signal.
What did I miss / get wrong.
I'd welcome any feedback on this.
Excellent analysis, spot on. Plus what LazyLobster said. Do not depend entirely on the TDI for your decisions. PA takes first place. TDI confirmed momentum even though it did not provide a signal. What you missed. The 2 candles prior to the entry closed higher. The candle prior to the entry pulled back from a short term S&R but did not close lower than the candle before.

So all of this said "go for it". Additionally, if in doubt use a smaller stop(Risk Less) you could have put a stop just the other side of the BRN it would only have needed a 10 - 14 pip stop and / or move to B/E sooner say after 10pips. Use this tactic for the "Iīm not sure trades"
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,427
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:56am Dec 12, 2012 5:56am
Quoting dee50
Excellent analysis, spot on. Plus what LazyLobster said. Do not depend entirely on the TDI for your decisions. PA takes first place. TDI confirmed momentum even though it did not provide a signal. What you missed. The 2 candles prior to the entry closed higher. The candle prior to the entry pulled back from a short term S&R but did not close lower than the candle before.

So all of this said "go for it". Additionally, if in doubt use a smaller stop(Risk Less) you could have put a stop just the other side of the BRN it would only have needed...
Thanks for the feedback Dee50
Good to know that my analysis was OK
Also appreciate you taking the time to enlighten me on the things I missed. I must confess that I hadn't been looking that closely. The most interesting point for me is that I would have been put off by the pullback of the candle before entry. However I hadn't spotted the significance of it not closing lower than the previous candle.
I figure the more time I spend analysing charts and noting down my observations the clearer it'll become.
  • #9,428
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:38am Dec 12, 2012 6:38am
Quoting dee50
Why donīt you answer that question your self and then ask if your analysis is correct. You will learn a lot more, faster, by trying to work it out. Mark up a chart with your analysis. What is the worst that can happen??

Here are some clues
Support
Divergence
OB
BRN
TDI- Red & Green Yellow
The way I saw that trade:

1. Raging market. No direction, change of colours, long wicks both sides of the candles. Noone mentioned it so far, for me it is a crucial information.
2. Price broke out of A/E resistance and pulled back leaving wick behind.
3. Obviously TDI lines were sloping up (though no cross), bouncing off from 32 and yellow line. but indi is the second type of confirmation, whereas PA didn't give me clear entry.
4. Market were about to close the gap, however how many times price quickly reverses right after?

All in all, I have classified (supported by Phx62 definitions) the market as hostile- raging- enviornment. Thats why I am curious why you were all so sure of the entry.

Kind regards,
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #9,429
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:55am Dec 12, 2012 6:55am
Todays trade
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  • #9,430
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:23am Dec 12, 2012 7:23am
I posted this over in the 15 thread

try working with wilders rsi set at 51 and 48 in addition to tdi and pa

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  • #9,431
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:37am Dec 12, 2012 7:37am
Quoting ozobU
I posted this over in the 15 thread

try working with wilders rsi set at 51 and 48 in addition to tdi and pa

Attachment
WHY????
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,432
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:45am Dec 12, 2012 7:45am
Quoting munirpt
Todays trade
You in a hurry for a six digit income. 2 trades in one, now that is just plain showing off.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,433
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:51am Dec 12, 2012 7:51am
Quoting munirpt
Todays trade
Very nice trade! Conservative and safe TP setting! Congrats!

take care,
thrax
  • #9,434
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:51am Dec 12, 2012 7:51am
Quoting mierzyk
The way I saw that trade:

1. Raging market. No direction, change of colours, long wicks both sides of the candles. Noone mentioned it so far, for me it is a crucial information.
2. Price broke out of A/E resistance and pulled back leaving wick behind.
3. Obviously TDI lines were sloping up (though no cross), bouncing off from 32 and yellow line. but indi is the second type of confirmation, whereas PA didn't give me clear entry.
4. Market were about to close the gap, however how many times price quickly reverses right after?

All in all, I have...
It is lucky for us all that we have different interpretations of the same scenario. If we all thought the same there would be no market. Your perspective is interesting, thank you for sharing it. I hope the previous posts on this have answered your question.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,435
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:51am Dec 12, 2012 7:51am
munirpt
Quote
Todays trade

Great work Munir!
  • #9,436
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:53am Dec 12, 2012 7:53am
Quoting dee50
You in a hurry for a six digit income. 2 trades in one, now that is just plain showing off.
hehe, actually im still far from that type of income....
Still trying to find my way....
You are a real guru!!!
  • #9,437
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:53am Dec 12, 2012 7:53am
Hello Rick. Nice to see you here. Swing trading giving you more free time??
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,438
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:55am Dec 12, 2012 7:55am
Quoting dcginc
munirpt

Great work Munir!
Most of what I know is due to you Rick.
Thanks
  • #9,439
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:59am Dec 12, 2012 7:59am
Looks like we might have an inverted head and shoulders on the daily. Although to complete price will need to get up to 1.3090ish. Is that likely on FOMC day??
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,440
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:01am Dec 12, 2012 8:01am
Quoting munirpt
hehe, actually im still far from that type of income....
Still trying to find my way....
You are a real guru!!!
I think you miss spelled that "You are a real GRRR"
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
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