AUD/USD

LOL you're hilarious...

...


What happens when Aussie runs out of minerals, China slows down.

Why did we bounce off 1.10 earlier in the year. You look back.

I didn't get a scholarship in economics for nothing.

Yep far too many people.

AUD Longs at 10 year highs according to CFTC

http://globalfx.com.au/wp-content/up...Positions1.png

I never get why people use COT data as a guide. They make up such a tiny part of the market and their positionings are not successful enough that you can follow, nor are they wrong enough that you can use them as an contraian indicator. Didn't jplazard post a few weeks ago that the AUD futures were at 90 something? How'd that go for them? I'd love to see someone post some trades following COT data over several months that are even remotely profitable.

I got a degree in economics as well but economics don't teach you anything about trading (referring to John gray post). Get 5 economics masters and even phds and you'll have 5 different opinions. How many economists can predict rate cut with 100% certainty? Zero. Out of the two years I've been following rate decisions I've yet to see any economists put their foot down and predict 3 rate decisions in a row. Most of them don't even have the balls to decide either way. They'll pussyfoot around it and frame their opinions with words like "probably", "likely to", or MAYBE. Just so they can't be proven wrong. The ones that I've seen who put their name on the line will perhaps get 1 decision right once in a while. But so can a monkey if you gave them a coin.

Plus there's no telling what the price might do even if you get the decision right (as evidenced by the latest rate cut).

BTW if Australia runs out of minerals (somehow), China will source minerals from Africa. I foresee the greatest threat to Australia's economy over the coming decades would not be a China slowdown, but rather competition from newly emergent African countries as they put more mines online and get their political situation stabilized.

I don't think you'd find anyone who trades off the CFTC report but is something I consider at an extreme level like this. But hey I also use futures volume as a proxy for the FX market and seems to work pretty well for me

So then I take it you'll short now then? How would you consider stop loss and target? I take it you're a daily trader at least if you're using COT data since its not good for intraday swings. Please come back a few weeks later if you're successful or not. I'd like to see if these COT figures can actually do anything.

No way I'd be short after that excess low on the earlier sell off but no way I'd be long either. I'll wait till it picks a direction and volatility comes back.

Why do you think I'd be short?

BTW think you should read my post again. RE: "something I consider"

By short because you put that yellow line at 1.10 where it was the previous top as well near the other record high in COT aud longs. So I assumed your bias is to the short side. Feel free to correct me if you're actually bullish.

Other than that what conditions would you consider until it "picks a direction and volatility comes back"? Eg drops to 1.038 to short, atr 100+? Hmm?

I consider traders that go by quoting cot figures totally useless, but hey I also like to be proven wrong if I can learn something new.

I'm neutral at the moment.

A break of this wedge would be a good start.

No need to be rude.

Well that's not COT trading is it then if you can't even pick a direction based on the numbers. Just saying I reckon its useless.

I'm not trying to be rude I just want someone who uses COT to defend it for whatever merits they think it has and post some trade ideas to prove it. And if they can't do that.... it just proves my point.

She is lovely, always flying like free birds

no excitement although audusd closing day above 1.0500 !?!

my hypotesis is that final shorts will not be scared out on tl break therefore long biased.

I'm not too crazy about going long at these levels at least not on a short term basis. 1.053 marks the completion of the wave from 1.034. In fact I've taken a short @ 1.053 targeting 1.0485 and 1.0465. My usdcad short from 9930 is also close to tp @ 9850 and nzdusd long from 8094 @ 8400. Its possible qe5 could push the wave even further up without retracement but I think I like the risk/reward here.

Aud move above 1.05 isnt that significant however a move above 1.06 is which could spark a major bull run.

Failure to break through 1.0530-70 resistance and unable to hold 1.0400 then we slide towards parity.

Most are praying for a break of 1.06 so we can hammer those online shopping sites..

Daily, 20 EMA 40 SMA

it is just me or consumer sentiment is improving for real?!?

You have a wish. It will be granted by market. Anything to improve consumer sentiment.

That should help also:
"Stevens says ending period of low financing rates may be tough politically."

translation - rates will go up soon.

AUD/USD trading over the 1.0533 monthly resistance, US FED decision in about 5 hours +.

I think as to AUDUSD that it is better to BUY
If the price breaks through the level 1.05407 bullish movement will start. Targets of the bullish movement: 1.05610.
http://www.accentforex.com/images/_a...12.11.2012.gif

another pairs are avaliable

Very quiet here.

Damn FOMC has everyone in wait & see mode.