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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,701
  • Dec 10, 2012 2:03pm Dec 10, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting cdndollar
I observe the COT positions in conjunction with the Oanda Open Order/Position +1 Year Historical Position Ratio for sentiment analysis..

Attachment

Holding USDCAD shorts looking for .9788 & .9688
USDCAD D1
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Interesting Thread here..
Good luck & trade safe..
Good post cdndollar! I use Oanda sometimes too. in this one you can see how buy/sell orders evolved over time.And get some idea about S/R levels.
I'm also holding shorts on UCAD.
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  • #5,702
  • Dec 10, 2012 2:04pm Dec 10, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Dear Canadians!

Here's my take...
  • #5,703
  • Dec 10, 2012 2:09pm Dec 10, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
EU
EU: long trade update; a classic confluence trade.
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  • #5,704
  • Dec 10, 2012 2:14pm Dec 10, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
going long EJ, will post the chart later; have to run
EJ chart as promised
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  • #5,705
  • Dec 10, 2012 2:50pm Dec 10, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
Well, I'm currently short UCAD as I mentioned here before. Regarding your question on how to decide SL for limit orders, it's fairly subjective, but what I use is based on Standard Deviation (SD) of the TF on that particular pair. For instance, looking at UCAD, 4hr TF, SD is 19 pips. I think a SL smaller than 1 SD is too tight and you have chance to step out by price fluctuation; on the other hand a SL greater than 3 SD is too much. I say like 1.5-2 SD is fair. In UCAD case, 1.5 SD (19 pips*1.5= 30) +2-3 pip spread= 32-33 pips. For your TP, again...
Thanks for your valuable feedback .... I am absorbing the info you provided ...will get back on this if any further questions on this.
  • #5,706
  • Dec 10, 2012 3:07pm Dec 10, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting MktScape
Thanks for your valuable feedback .... I am absorbing the info you provided ...will get back on this if any further questions on this.

Am i reading this correctly .... so the SL based on std will be 24 X 2 = 48 pips ...?

Also, do you think the identified demand levels have some juice in it, would you consider a trade against those?
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  • #5,707
  • Dec 10, 2012 3:13pm Dec 10, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting MktScape
Am i reading this correctly .... so the SL based on std will be 24 X 2 = 48 pips ...?

Also, do you think the identified demand levels have some juice in it, would you consider a trade against those?
That's correct. My setup is SD (20). Yours is SD(34). The setup is subjective; you get the idea. A SL between 1.5-2 SD is more than enough. If price hits that, it means you took a bad trade. If you trade based on the daily chart or hourly chart it will different as you know. Also, the higher the volatility in he market the higher SD. Therefore, you need to adjust your position size accordingly to have a reasonable risk.
  • #5,708
  • Dec 10, 2012 11:07pm Dec 10, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
Good post cdndollar! I use Oanda sometimes too. in this one you can see how buy/sell orders evolved over time.And get some idea about S/R levels.
I'm also holding shorts on UCAD.

Thanks you.. it consolidated for 2 months before breaking below .9900.. may be it'll consolidate in-front of .9850 again for awhile taxing our patience (just ask our friend "Charles" calderone ) before going sub .9800..
Thank you for the buy/sell orders flow info.. can you share the link?

Euro Weekly Buy Fractal from 11/19 & Monthly Hammer off 1.2660 & L/T Confluence zone still in play here.. a retrace down to 1.2830~00 would inject additional liquidity.. but 1.2800 may be again the supporting "baseline in the sand" as in September & October for a retest of 1.32 ~1.35..

EURUSD D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Another Quarterly Up Fractal off L/T demand in progress resolving divergence..
M/T 1.35 may just be an hiccup en-route to 1.50 again..

EURUSD Quarterly
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USDX vs EURUSD M/T Converge/Diverge Scenarios..
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Holding long Swing/M/T possies in Euro, Cable & Loonie.. so take the above views fwiw..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thank you Forexgogo for the USDCAD views..

MktScape.. I had lived in YVR since my teens.. right from Clint Eastwood's "A Fistful of Dollars" to his "Dirty Harry" years plus another 2 decade of full moons after..
  • #5,709
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:10am Dec 11, 2012 6:10am
Quoting shahab8b
EU: long trade update; a classic confluence trade.
What's your limit target on both the EU and EJ.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,710
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:10am Dec 11, 2012 8:10am
Quoting cdndollar
Thanks you.. it consolidated for 2 months before breaking below .9900.. may be it'll consolidate in-front of .9850 again for awhile taxing our patience (just ask our friend "Charles" calderone ) before going sub .9800..
Thank you for the buy/sell orders flow info.. can you share the link?

Euro Weekly Buy Fractal from 11/19 & Monthly Hammer off 1.2660 & L/T Confluence zone still in play here.. a retrace down to 1.2830~00 would inject additional liquidity.. but 1.2800 may be again the supporting "baseline in the sand" as in September &...
Yea calderone is a good friend of mine and a great trader of course. The buy/sell orders are from Oanda, the same place you got the other data.

BTW, what do you use to get the overlay chart?
  • #5,711
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:12am Dec 11, 2012 8:12am
Quoting bassramy
What's your limit target on both the EU and EJ.
What you mean? I'm already long both pairs. You wanna know limits for short or long?
  • #5,712
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:18am Dec 11, 2012 8:18am
EU long from the start of the idea till now.

AU long as we mentioned earlier

Also, holding long EJ, GU, Gold and short UCHF, UCAD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,713
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:28am Dec 11, 2012 8:28am
Quoting shahab8b
EU long from the start of the idea till now.

AU long as we mentioned earlier

Also, holding long EJ, GU, Gold and short UCHF, UCAD
I just chickened out EU, which I entered at about the same price as you did. Well a little than 100 pips gained -- no complain

(I just couldn't go against quadruple top, 1.300, and fib 50...)
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  • #5,714
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:00am Dec 11, 2012 9:00am
Quoting shahab8b
What you mean? I'm already long both pairs. You wanna know limits for short or long?
Your profit targets on both, do you think they gonna revisit the top and form a double top or the 23.6 Fibo is a possible target and i just realized that u r short UCHF also do you think a double bottom is expected.

Thank you.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,715
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:38am Dec 11, 2012 9:38am
Are we heading to a wide H&S ? on EU, I guess we will have to wait and see.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,716
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:50am Dec 11, 2012 9:50am
Quoting shahab8b
Yea calderone is a good friend of mine and a great trader of course. The buy/sell orders are from Oanda, the same place you got the other data.

BTW, what do you use to get the overlay chart?
It's manual overlay.. I only do it to highlight certain patterns..

Not very often we have EURUSD+EURGBP+EURJPY+GBPUSD bulls all running in tandem with the Dollar Index pulling back to 79.50!
daily above 1.2988 suggest the recent aberration is over & a retest of 1.3128~68..
  • #5,717
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:51am Dec 11, 2012 9:51am
Quoting bassramy
Are we heading to a wide H&S ? on EU, I guess we will have to wait and see.
Maybe... but even if it's the case, I wouldn't go short unless it breaks the UTL...
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  • #5,718
  • Edited 10:42am Dec 11, 2012 10:28am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting cdndollar
I observe the COT positions in conjunction with the Oanda Open Order/Position +1 Year Historical Position Ratio for sentiment analysis..
The Aussi, Kiwi & Loonie, risk correlated instruments keep on rallying & closed above 2+ months Highs last week with NZDUSD closed above 5+ month high with divergence between long positions and market price similar to the divergence observed back at the end of January where the the market maintain a side to up bias until a shift in sentiments near the end of February..

Looks like there's good odd to repeat...
Long NZDUSD earler @.8368 with 20 pips stop..

H1 keep backing off from weekly R1.. closed for a few beers.. will wait for retrace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture-20121211-162251 NZD H1.png Size: 16 KB
  • #5,719
  • Edited 12:49am Dec 12, 2012 12:31am | Edited 12:49am
price compression into a supply zone which was tested back in early 2012 ....

Shahab, is this currently on your radar for a short? Is there any guidance we can get from any of COT reports to support our decision?
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  • #5,720
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:52am Dec 12, 2012 12:52am
Quoting MktScape
price compression into a supply zone which was tested back in early 2012 ....

Shahab, is this currently on your radar for a short? Is there ant guidance from COT reports to decided?
Hi guys, my take on COT is that the JPY positioning is very heavily bullish (yet to be reflected in price) and the GBP is very bearish (reflected across some cross pairs). This pair is on my list for a short but as usual MUST wait for the price breakdown before getting involved.

Due to the high levels of Long holdings by the Commercials and the opposing massive short holdings by the NonComms (Funds and Specs) I would struggle to have a bullish bias on this pair even if we get above the 133.5 area.

Hope to hear Shahab's opinion too.
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