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  • #421
  • Dec 10, 2012 11:55pm Dec 10, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting juhanimi
Actually, it is possible to make money in roulette, just because it is random.
When it is random, long lines will never repeat, odds is in gamblers side.

We write up 20 numbers, RBBBRBBRRRR..
and start to bet after 20 spins, and we bet against that 20 spins line and use martingale.
It works in real casino, but it is hard work, always have to wait that line to complete, before you start to bet again.
Done that, been there. Real life.
You had a lucky run. If you play long enough, you'll eventually have a sequence of losses that forces you to exceed the house limit, and hence martingale will eventually bankrupt you. You are not arguing against me; you're arguing against expectancy theory. Math is inviolable.
  • #422
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:05am Dec 11, 2012 12:05am
Quoting hanover
You had a lucky run. Martingale will eventually bankrupt you. You are not arguing against me; you're arguing against expectancy theory. Math is inviolable.
4 years for a lucky run is just too much.
You do not have to believe me, you can test it yourself.
There is one casino online where is a real live european roulette with a croupier, google it, you can play with playmoney.

Bet with Small and Big and use six numbers, 1-6 7-12 13-18 for small, so you have no worries about table limits, and there is a history 2, just take from that history just one line and start to bet against it.

But I am sure, they will do same kind of tricks like market makers, if you start to take money out from there, freezing platform, no connection and so on.

Have fun.
  • #423
  • Dec 11, 2012 1:52am Dec 11, 2012 1:52am
Quoting Pipalicious
Forget What You Know:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Uq-FOOQ1TpE
Thanks.


“The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.”

Albert Einstein (http://thinkexist.com/quotes/albert_einstein/)
  • #424
  • Dec 11, 2012 1:58am Dec 11, 2012 1:58am
Quoting juhanimi
Thanks.


“The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.”

Albert Einstein (http://thinkexist.com/quotes/albert_einstein/)
cute, but even einstein would consider martingale to be stupid. much like some of the rest of us here.

Quote
Albert Einstein has been quoted as saying “You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it.”
if you want to claim something that flies directly in the face of common knowledge then you better have something more than a little story to back you up. it's all well and good to say that nobody used to think flight was possible (despite birds doing it all of the time, right?), but when you start saying that flight is possible to people who understand the forces and mechanics of flight you better come to them with something better than a party balloon strapped to a rhinoceros.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #425
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:06am Dec 11, 2012 2:06am
When it is random, it is chaotic.
When there is chaos, there is no order.
So, bets are based to that fact.
  • #426
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:14am Dec 11, 2012 2:14am
Quoting juhanimi
When it is random, it is chaotic.
When there is chaos, there is no order.
So, bets are based to that fact.
let's all give a round of applause for confirmation bias!
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #427
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:21am Dec 11, 2012 2:21am
Thank You Sir!

You can use math to count probs 2, if you want.
  • #428
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:48am Dec 11, 2012 2:48am
Randomness (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness), a lack of intelligible pattern or combination

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos
  • #429
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:09am Dec 11, 2012 3:09am
Quoting juhanimi
4 years for a lucky run is just too much.
You do not have to believe me, you can test it yourself.
There is one casino online where is a real live european roulette with a croupier, google it, you can play with playmoney.

Bet with Small and Big and use six numbers, 1-6 7-12 13-18 for small, so you have no worries about table limits, and there is a history 2, just take from that history just one line and start to bet against it.

But I am sure, they will do same kind of tricks like market makers, if you start to take money out from...
Have to agree that some games can be exploit with a system/gambling plan, eg, which i use to do soccer betting and make consistent profit over 10 years.

Pls don't feel offended, I am going to speak my own pathetic story. I don't believe in luck nor do i need any luck, but I ever on a consecutive run of wins in my main account for few years, that I felt I am formidable, and mighty that the word "losing" doesn't appear in my book of life, i bought a car, I quit my job and traded full time. Till I finally hit a loss, and start having a losing streak. The feeling of losing the amount I make from 1000 to 6 digits, the emotions I went thru kept me out of forex for few years. I finally concluded myself, I am really running on luck to make those money instead of experience, skills and knowledge. I traded according to plans, but suddenly everything stop working after few years, I am totally lost. I thought I quit, and I once think forex is just a scam. Sometimes lucks really with us for many years, and that give her an impression we attained those mighty knowledges or systems, but its not.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #430
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:32am Dec 11, 2012 3:32am
Forex will never change, it has been always same: when there is more buyers than sellers, price will go up and vice versa.
  • #431
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:20am Dec 11, 2012 7:20am
Supply & Demand comes to mind. Learning about those two & how they work in the markets & everday
life can be of great help to the trader. Supply & Demand along with a few others items has worked for me.
Just my views & nothing more. Post on people.

____________________________
  • #432
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:20am Dec 11, 2012 8:20am
Quoting acetrader
Supply & Demand comes to mind. Learning about those two & how they work in the markets & everday
life can be of great help to the trader. Supply & Demand along with a few others items has worked for me.
Just my views & nothing more. Post on people.

____________________________

I really don't have any idea how supply and demand would help me in trading forex. Maybe you could elaborate a bit.
The forex market is so efficient tick a tick that is no way I could take advantage of the "previous" tick Des-balance between supply and demand.

After all, that is why the price moved... the whole finance system trying to fill them. In other words, we all know what the supply and demand was the previous tick, but no one knows what the next tick supply and demand will be, not even the banks that can have only glance at their own internal orders but clueless of the world's overall.

J.
  • #433
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:38am Dec 11, 2012 8:38am
Quoting jeuro
I really don't have any idea how supply and demand would help me in trading forex. Maybe you could elaborate a bit.
The forex market is so efficient tick a tick that is no way I could take advantage of the "previous" tick Des-balance between supply and demand.

After all, that is why the price moved... the whole finance system trying to fill them. In other words, we all know what the supply and demand was the previous tick, but no one knows what the next tick supply and demand will be, not even the banks that can have...
Must admit, i agree 100% with this. Any and all imbalances happen on a tick by tick basis and how historical moves influence an 'right now' imbalance is still beyond me. Its all lagging current price.
  • #434
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:48am Dec 11, 2012 8:48am
Quoting jeuro
I really don't have any idea how supply and demand would help me in trading forex. Maybe you could elaborate a bit.
The forex market is so efficient tick a tick that is no way I could take advantage of the "previous" tick Des-balance between supply and demand.

After all, that is why the price moved... the whole finance system trying to fill them. In other words, we all know what the supply and demand was the previous tick, but no one knows what the next tick supply and demand will be, not even the banks that can have...
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #435
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:26am Dec 11, 2012 9:26am
Jeuro,

Ref post #436 you raise a very good point. In order to save me time & probably avoid getting involved in
a pissing contest that so often happens in these forums I am going to refer you over to a thread that will
explain how S&D is working in the forex market. I normally DO NOT like to recommend too many threads, but
this is one is one that I see as sharing valuable information on how to thread S&D. Check out B. S.
Trading with Kenneth Lee.

S&D is not the only thing I use, but it is in the mix of things that I do use. Thats about all I have to offer,
but I will say what works for one may not work for another. BTW: you have some 10V traders that agree
with your statement, so you are on the right track it seems. Good trades to you in the future.
_____________________________
  • #436
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:47am Dec 11, 2012 9:47am
Quoting jeuro
I really don't have any idea how supply and demand would help me in trading forex. Maybe you could elaborate a bit.
The forex market is so efficient tick a tick that is no way I could take advantage of the "previous" tick Des-balance between supply and demand.

After all, that is why the price moved... the whole finance system trying to fill them. In other words, we all know what the supply and demand was the previous tick, but no one knows what the next tick supply and demand will be, not even the banks that can have only...
There is one explanation among others why S&D, double top, H&S and other patterns work: there are many people believe and rely on them and trade them. It is an illusion, but still there is a probability that they work. however if we look at the chart more closely we will see a many cases where they did not work.
sometimes common belief and opinion of masses move the market. therefore it is not wise to totally cross over these concepts.
As Above, So Below
  • #437
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:44pm Dec 11, 2012 12:44pm
TashKen,

Nicely put & there are many things in trading that fit into that same category. That
is why it is not the sum total of what I do. Over at the B.S. thread there seems to be
many saying they are having much success with S&D, but who knows maybe it is just
in their minds that it works for them, but I really don't think so. Come to think of it
there are many threads here where everyone seems to be successful. .

Anyway always good to read your insightful post.

______________________
  • #438
  • Dec 11, 2012 4:55pm Dec 11, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting acetrader
TashKen,

Nicely put & there are many things in trading that fit into that same category. That
is why it is not the sum total of what I do. Over at the B.S. thread there seems to be
many saying they are having much success with S&D, but who knows maybe it is just
in their minds that it works for them, but I really don't think so. Come to think of it
there are many threads here where everyone seems to be successful. .

Anyway always good to read your insightful post.
AT, with all respect to CP, I do not want to turn this into a dialogue. all I would like to say is that if something works for you just go for it. For every trader, there is ONE EDGE. he is very very good at something. this edge can be something crazy like seeing a dream or flipping a coin. and it MAY work for him. so I am absolutely not questioning trading systems.
but if we want to be very successful in this business WE MUST RESPECT ALL OTHER TRADING SYSTEMS AND METHODS.
to be more precise we simply have to be open minded and welcome any new approach or theory even if it demolishes our long worshiped concepts. this is only way to find the truth.
VANITY KILLS.
many successful trades to everyone.
As Above, So Below
  • #439
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:07am Dec 12, 2012 12:07am
TashKent,

My friend I do respect CP & all others posting here along with their systems
& methods. Your point is very valid & I agree 100% with you. What works
for me may not work for another & I discovered that many years ago. Who am I to
make light of another's method of trading. I am very opened minded & always
enjoy reading what others are doing, but if I don't understand it I certainly
DO NOT start slamming it. Anyway thank you for your comments & views
as they are always enjoyed & appreciated.

____________________
  • #440
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:18am Dec 14, 2012 5:18am
This post is not a response to anything, but you guys are here coz u wanna fire off a few new synapses, so i wanna have a little rant.

If you are a losing trader it is because you are not complex enough. You don't have to be more complex to be a profitable trader, but if you were complex to a sufficient extent (and had a passion for trading), then profitability would be an inevitable outcome.

My implication is that you can try and become profitable, or try and become more complex - they will have the same outcome. Increasing your complexity will also improve most of the other aspects of your life whereas trying to become profitable will only help your trading (if u are lucky).

You can divide the world into two groups. People who are more complex (read intelligent) than you and people who are less complex than you.

People who are less complex than you are not able to help you grow you're own complexity. They may provide you with things that are psychologically rewarding, but they will not help you grow you're own complexity.

You should also consider things in you're life which are natural inhibitants to your growth of intelligence like alcohol or a real nice fat doobie.

If you focus on growth and surrounding yourself with people/teachers who are more complex than you, then you will inevitably become more and more successful.

The alternative is to be mediocre like most of the people around you. Unlike CP.

The fortunes from brain teasing don't only have to be in money. Complexity is its own reward i promise. Grow to a certain point, and the money won't even matter.
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