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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,681
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:21pm Dec 9, 2012 1:21pm
hello shahab

thank you for this very good topic.
  • #5,682
  • Dec 9, 2012 10:31pm Dec 9, 2012 10:31pm
Hi Shahab and everyone,

Would you mind taking a look at the exotic pairs like NZD/CHF? My logic is here:

1, NZD/CHF = carry trade

2, AUD/USD is up (so will NZD/USD)

3, EUR/CHF has a peg and would finaly end up higher (in months / a year?)

here I only assume EUR/USD would be stable in a range (1.26-1.33)>=(1.29-1.30)

So is there a chance NZD/CHF, in your opinion would continue its way up?

I mainly focus on pairs like EUR/USD, CABLE, USD/CHF and AUD/USD, but to find this trade idea this morning when I woke up.

So please correct me if you have a different opinion, any opinion from anyone is highly appreciated

With kind regards

Fred
  • #5,683
  • Dec 9, 2012 11:40pm Dec 9, 2012 11:40pm
EU
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  • #5,684
  • Dec 9, 2012 11:41pm Dec 9, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting frederic119
Hi Shahab and everyone,

Would you mind taking a look at the exotic pairs like NZD/CHF? My logic is here:

1, NZD/CHF = carry trade

2, AUD/USD is up (so will NZD/USD)

3, EUR/CHF has a peg and would finaly end up higher (in months / a year?)

here I only assume EUR/USD would be stable in a range (1.26-1.33)>=(1.29-1.30)

So is there a chance NZD/CHF, in your opinion would continue its way up?

I mainly focus on pairs like EUR/USD, CABLE, USD/CHF and AUD/USD, but to find this trade idea this morning when I woke up.

So please correct...
Hi Fred, please post a chart so we can see what you are looking at.
  • #5,685
  • Dec 9, 2012 11:41pm Dec 9, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting fxalifx
hello shahab

thank you for this very good topic.
appreciated
  • #5,686
  • Dec 9, 2012 11:57pm Dec 9, 2012 11:57pm
Gold, TL broken and a weird looking inverted head and shoulders
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  • #5,687
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:06am Dec 10, 2012 12:06am
Quoting shahab8b
EU
Hi Shahab,
Thanks for your chart .... I was wondering if you entered via limit order on this one .... ?
  • #5,688
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:08am Dec 10, 2012 12:08am
Quoting MktScape
Hi Shahab,
Thanks for your chart .... I was wondering if you entered via limit order on this one ....and do you use limit order as main entry tool?
I did. I usually use limit orders (80% of the times). To my experience, you'll make less bad entries using limit orders.
  • #5,689
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:15am Dec 10, 2012 12:15am
Quoting shahab8b
I did. I usually use limit orders (80% of the times). To my experience, you'll make less bad entries using limit orders.
Thanks ....I am working on starting to use limit orders as well, as the London session occurs at 3:00 AM (Toronto Time) and its quite difficult to be up at that time at least for now until I become a full time trader. Also the supply/demand levels against which you take the limit trades ...is Fib a must have at those levels in addition to other confluences.
  • #5,690
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:25am Dec 10, 2012 12:25am
Quoting MktScape
Thanks ....I am working on starting to use limit orders as well, as the London session occurs at 3:00 AM (Toronto Time) and its quite difficult to be up at that time at least for now until I become a full time trader. Also the supply/demand levels against which you take the limit trades ...is Fib a must have at those levels in addition to other confluences.
Also talking of Fibs do you take the 23% level or 38% and above only?

How does the following CHFJPY level looks like for a limit order trade ..its has multiple confluences in addition to strong PA up move? ....

I would appreciate if you can identify where you would potentially place the Buy limit order and the SL and what would be your SL size in pips for such level or you just position size for the percent risk for your account?
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  • #5,691
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:50am Dec 10, 2012 12:50am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Tradoholic,
Nice going on EJ. I am a bit skeptical if it continues to fall further, let's see how it plays. As for AU, I'm more bullish technically, for now holding longs.
I observe the COT positions in conjunction with the Oanda Open Order/Position +1 Year Historical Position Ratio for sentiment analysis..
The Aussi, Kiwi & Loonie, risk correlated instruments keep on rallying & closed above 2+ months Highs last week with NZDUSD closed above 5+ month high with divergence between long positions and market price similar to the divergence observed back at the end of January where the the market maintain a side to up bias until a shift in sentiments near the end of February..

Looks like there's good odd to repeat the side to up bias over the S/T with extension to .8450 on the narrow & .8800 on the wide.. expect increase volatility & stop running as we approach the upcoming thin holiday period..

Oanda NZD/USD Open Order/Position +1 Year Historical Position Ratio
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Pending NZDUSD Buy @.8280~90.. SL 50~80 pips to be determined by PA.. 1st Target .8450
NZDUSD D1
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Holding USDCAD shorts looking for .9788 & .9688
USDCAD D1
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Interesting Thread here..
Good luck & trade safe..
  • #5,692
  • Edited 1:15am Dec 10, 2012 1:05am | Edited 1:15am
Quoting cdndollar
I observe the COT positions in conjunction with the Oanda Open Order/Position +1 Year Historical Position Ratio for sentiment analysis..
The Aussi, Kiwi & Loonie, risk correlated instruments keep on rallying & closed above 2+ months Highs last week with NZDUSD closed above 5+ month high with divergence between long positions and market price similar to the divergence observed back at the end of January where the the market maintain a side to up bias until a shift in sentiments near the end of February..

Looks like there's good odd to repeat...
Hi cdndollar,
Earlier I was looking at same level on NZDUSD ....this area looks quite strong support within two Fibs levels 50% & 61%, Round Number, Weekly and Monthly Mid levels and strong demand PA .

The level above at 38% fib and weekly pivot can certainly produce a good bounce as well.
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  • #5,693
  • Dec 10, 2012 1:16am Dec 10, 2012 1:16am
Quoting MktScape
Hi cdndollar,
Earlier I was looking at same level on NZDUSD ....this area looks quite strong within two Fibs levels, Round Number, Weekly and Monthly Mid levels.
Agree.. good S/T confluence support zone.. .8220~50 is also good support on the weekly..

Where are you in Canada? I spent many moons up there before "fleeing" to the warmer Tropics..
  • #5,694
  • Dec 10, 2012 1:27am Dec 10, 2012 1:27am
Quoting cdndollar
Agree.. good S/T confluence support zone.. .8220~50 is also good support on the weekly..

Where are you in Canada? I spent many moons up there before "fleeing" to the warmer Tropics..
I am in Toronto ...how long you lived here?
  • #5,695
  • Dec 10, 2012 8:37am Dec 10, 2012 8:37am
going long EJ, will post the chart later; have to run
  • #5,696
  • Dec 10, 2012 8:37am Dec 10, 2012 8:37am
Dear Canadians!

Here's my take...
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  • #5,697
  • Edited 11:54am Dec 10, 2012 10:43am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting Forexgogo
Dear Canadians!

Here's my take...
LOL ...hey man ...here is the H4 view of UCAD ....the level at 61% Fib,combined with weekly and monthly support makes it quite strong. With respect to entry note that there are two levels on top of each other. If entering with limit order I would consider placing SL below the green level ...in my observation, in such situation price usually go deep into the level below to find additional demand ..... also note that there is a round number at the level below which definitely attracts buyers.

Shahab's feedback will be appreciated on the limit order entry and SL strategy for this pair .
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  • #5,698
  • Dec 10, 2012 11:08am Dec 10, 2012 11:08am
Quoting MktScape
LOL ...hey man ...here is the H4 view of UCAD ....the level at 61% Fib,combined with weekly and monthly support makes it quite strong. With respect to entry note that there are two levels on top of each other. If entering with limit order I would consider placing SL below the green level ...in my observation, in such situation price usually go deep into the level below to find additional demand ..... also note that there is a round number at the level below which definitely attracts buyers.

Shahab's feedback will be appreciated on the entry and...
MktScape
Thanks for your thoughts on it. My take seems a bit different -- I will not enter if the price is in the range of the yellow box. Only when the PA comes down to fib 50, 61, or 78, I would consider going long. The lower it comes down, the better the TP is. The best scenario would be the US gov goes off the "fiscal cliff," then, USDCAD skyrokets...
  • #5,699
  • Dec 10, 2012 11:42am Dec 10, 2012 11:42am
Quoting Forexgogo
MktScape
Thanks for your thoughts on it. My take seems a bit different -- I will not enter if the price is in the range of the yellow box. Only when the PA comes down to fib 50, 61, or 78, I would consider going long. The lower it comes down, the better the TP is. The best scenario would be the US gov goes off the "fiscal cliff," then, USDCAD skyrokets...
Yep I agree ...the deeper it goes on the Fibs the better R:R could be. I was thinking in terms of limit order entry ....

Shahab is a pro in limit orders, his take would be valuable on how would consider this at all and why not....that would be valuable learning opportunity.
  • #5,700
  • Dec 10, 2012 1:53pm Dec 10, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting MktScape
LOL ...hey man ...here is the H4 view of UCAD ....the level at 61% Fib,combined with weekly and monthly support makes it quite strong. With respect to entry note that there are two levels on top of each other. If entering with limit order I would consider placing SL below the green level ...in my observation, in such situation price usually go deep into the level below to find additional demand ..... also note that there is a round number at the level below which definitely attracts buyers.

Shahab's feedback will be appreciated on the limit...
Well, I'm currently short UCAD as I mentioned here before. Regarding your question on how to decide SL for limit orders, it's fairly subjective, but what I use is based on Standard Deviation (SD) of the TF on that particular pair. For instance, looking at UCAD, 4hr TF, SD is 19 pips. I think a SL smaller than 1 SD is too tight and you have chance to step out by price fluctuation; on the other hand a SL greater than 3 SD is too much. I say like 1.5-2 SD is fair. In UCAD case, 1.5 SD (19 pips*1.5= 30) +2-3 pip spread= 32-33 pips. For your TP, again it really depends on the chart and S/R levels, but if your trade is in good shape you should go for at least 60 pips.

P.S. for calculating SL based on SD you can use the SD indicator in the standard MT4 platform.
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