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  • #18,781
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:06am Dec 8, 2012 11:06am
Quoting maximmm
I am holding shorts over this weekend, aye^^
I have got beaten up most of times when I held positions over the weekends. Now, I try to close all positions before Friday close.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,782
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:08am Dec 8, 2012 11:08am
Let's take a look at some factual/technical info in regards to bullish/bearish view.

Bullish view -
EWP projection of 1.12
Two month old upward channel
Historical analogy suggesting a move to 1.0670 prior to a move down
AUD going higher on negative news as well as positive
DB being bullish on this pair

Bearish view -
Two month old upward channel severely lacking momentum in comparison to previous waves higher
COT net longs at record levels
One year old resistance line
Bearish divergence on various time charts
Historical PA analogy suggesting a move down from current levels
H/s formation at 1.015 missing the right shoulder
I guess I'll also add bearish butterfly on daily chart - haha
Maxim being bearish on this pair
  • #18,783
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:09am Dec 8, 2012 11:09am
Quoting DaddyBear
I have got beaten up most of times when I held positions over the weekends. Now, I try to close all positions before Friday close.
That only makes sense - but when you are the ultra-bear that I am, you do not fear being short over the weekend at these levels.
  • #18,784
  • Edited 7:26pm Dec 8, 2012 11:13am | Edited 7:26pm
Quoting forexalien
The problem with EWP is, 50,000 different traders can come up with 25,000 different A,B,C's 1,2,3's, a,b,c's, 1a,1b,1c's, x,y,z's, etc.
I agree when you see the PA slowly drift lower or higher and when the big boys see it bottom or top out , then the PA screams up or down to trap the dribble traders. If you want to know the direction of a trend , just look at the direction of the fastest moving PA in those short blasts of time.
This is why I preferred not to discuss EWP in this forum because there wouldn't have a common point anytime soon. Sometimes I did it in order to make my opinions crystal clear. Then again, it is crystal clear but may be opaque to most people in the end.

EWP is based on human heard mentality. Unlike most indicators, it is a principle discovered by R.N. Elliot. It is very profound and tough to comprehend. This is the main reason that most people run away from this Holy Grail. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,785
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:16am Dec 8, 2012 11:16am
Quoting maximmm
Let's take a look at some factual/technical info in regards to bullish/bearish view.

Bullish view -
EWP projection of 1.12
Two month old upward channel
AUD going higher on negative news as well as positive
DB being bullish on this pair

Bearish view -
Two month old upward channel lacking momentum
COT net longs at record levels
One year old resistance line
Bearish divergence on various time charts
H/s formation at 1.015 missing the right shoulder
I guess I'll also add bearish butterfly on daily chart - haha
Maxim being bearish on this pair
MAXIM, you have got a good analysis on both sides. Fair enough. If your view prevails in the end, this cartoon is for you to enjoy.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,786
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:21am Dec 8, 2012 11:21am
Quoting maximmm
That only makes sense - but when you are the ultra-bear that I am, you do not fear being short over the weekend at these levels.
Although, I am bullish in the longer term, I wouldn't miss a shorting opportunity. At this point, like you said, shorting may be safer at this level. But, bear in mind, there is no such thing that it is too high in the Forex market. It can always go higher when everyone thinks it is the top. Sky is the limit.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,787
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:23am Dec 8, 2012 11:23am
Quoting DaddyBear
Although, I am bullish in the longer term, I wouldn't miss a shorting opportunity. At this point, like you said, shorting may be safer at this level. But, bear in mind, there is no such thing that it is too high in the Forex market. It can always go higher when everyone thinks it is the top. Sky is the limit.
Actually, long is safer in any case because there is an absolute bottom, ZERO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,788
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:26am Dec 8, 2012 11:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
MAXIM, you have got a good analysis on both sides. Fair enough. If your view prevails in the end, this cartoon is for you to enjoy.
But then, you will find that I sit next to the driver.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,789
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:27am Dec 8, 2012 11:27am
Quoting DaddyBear
Actually, long is safer in any case because there is a absolute bottom, ZERO.
and the top is at infinity?!^^

Keep in mind, being bullish on aud, you are being bearish on usd - like aud, usd can also go to the infinity land - thus, by being bearish on aud, you are actually seeking the infinity in the usd land.,
  • #18,790
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:28am Dec 8, 2012 11:28am
Quoting Tim_isoara
1.Is my count and follow the principles of EW.
2.Is corrective pattern.
3. Corrective pattern are a) zigzags b) flats c)triangles d) double threes and triple threes.
4.EWP There are two varieties of triangle: contracting and expanding.Within the contracting variety, there are three types: symmetrical, ascending, and descending.
5.In the book The Elliott Waves Principles Prechter lesson 8: triangles pages 21
Tim, I got your point. Let's keep our own views intact and live together peacefully forever.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,791
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:28am Dec 8, 2012 11:28am
Quoting DaddyBear
But then, you will find that I sit next to the driver.
There is only enough space for one person on this super-rocket to the depth of the earth^^
  • #18,792
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:32am Dec 8, 2012 11:32am
Quoting maximmm
and the top is at infinity?!^^

Keep in mind, being bullish on aud, you are being bearish on usd - like aud, usd can also go to the infinity land - thus, by being bearish on aud, you are actually seeking the infinity in the usd land.,
Theoretically, sky is the limit for the bulls. However, I am not a perma-bull but a speculator in the Forex market. Like a hyena in the African prairie.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,793
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:33am Dec 8, 2012 11:33am
Quoting maximmm
There is only enough space for one person on this super-rocket to the depth of the earth^^
Don't be so stingy. Move over your butt!
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,794
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:37am Dec 8, 2012 11:37am
Quoting maximmm
There is only enough space for one person on this super-rocket to the depth of the earth^^
Be careful! You may find yourself lost in the Deep Space instead.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,795
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:42am Dec 8, 2012 11:42am
I believe this forum provides more real time analysis, interactive discussions and fun than any Aussie websites on the Internet. I welcome everyone with my bear hug.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342730506
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,796
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:51am Dec 8, 2012 11:51am
Quoting DaddyBear
Tim, I got your point. Let's keep our own views intact and live together peacefully forever.
DB of course. Anyway none of us don't trade after the weekly chart.
  • #18,797
  • Edited 12:05pm Dec 8, 2012 11:51am | Edited 12:05pm
Last week, fundamentals did not play much role in the Aussie's moves. Like I mentioned previously, the market is driven by an invisible force beneath the charts. Whoever can discover this force will gain an edge in the Forex market.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,798
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:56am Dec 8, 2012 11:56am
Quoting Tim_isoara
DB of course. Anyway none of us don't trade after the weekly chart.
Agree. But, it leads us to our destination.

Below is the tally of current poll. It shows that H1 is still the leading TF. W1 is at the bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: POLL-112612-2.JPG Size: 93 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,799
  • Dec 8, 2012 12:07pm Dec 8, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
DB of course. Anyway none of us don't trade after the weekly chart.
Also, weekly chart will decide how the lower TF moves. In the end, it is still the papa of all lower TF.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,800
  • Dec 8, 2012 12:08pm Dec 8, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Also, weekly chart will decide how the lower TF moves. In the end, it is still the papa of all lower TF.
This is the reason why I believe weekly chart is as valuable as H1 chart. It gives traders a big picture and a clear view as well.
daddybearforex. com
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