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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #18,761
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:20am Dec 8, 2012 10:20am
Quoting DaddyBear
Long term view sets my sight straight even I am a short term trader. You see, while COT is a lagging data, my long term view is ahead of the curve. When surfing the Forex markets, I wouldn't use COT. Here is a cartoon posted a few months ago. Let me use it to visualize my point for those COT believers.
BTW, nobody surfs behind the waves.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1354978659
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,762
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:22am Dec 8, 2012 10:22am
Quoting DaddyBear
Some people are thinking the probability of a gap up on Sunday open due to CNY CPI & PPI.
Chinese data will be out today as well as tomorrow - retail sales info coming out tomorrow is equally important -
  • #18,763
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:23am Dec 8, 2012 10:23am
Quoting DaddyBear
Can you make your point straight?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354668254
I know you follow EWP and that is great ! we all need something to hang our bear hats on.... There very well could be a gaint green candle to 1.10xx to clear out all the stops on the shorts that are building right now. I trade in the moment and not for the future, not even Aliens can project or predict the future....
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #18,764
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:24am Dec 8, 2012 10:24am
Quoting maximmm
Chinese data will be out today as well as tomorrow - retail sales info coming out tomorrow is equally important -
Thanks, MAXIM. I thought CPI & PPI were due at 830 EST.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,765
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:25am Dec 8, 2012 10:25am
Quoting DaddyBear
I used to think this was perfect projection before. I am not sure who was the first one to produce this formation. Others have been just following this view without an in-depth review by themselves.

A few months ago, I suddenly realized that this projection was not going to happen in the future. Simply because it was against the EWP. IMO
haha - triangle is a part of ewp - PA moving to the bottom of the triangle prior to breaking to the upside would not in any way detract from the ewp projection. I'm not sure where you see the conflict with ewp. Oh well.
  • #18,766
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:27am Dec 8, 2012 10:27am
Quoting forexalien
I know you follow EWP and that is great ! we all need something to hang our bear hats on.... There very well could be a gaint green candle to 1.10xx to clear out all the stops on the shorts that are building right now. I trade in the moment and not for the future, not even Aliens can project or predict the future....
alien, you see it does not cost me a penny to project the Aussie's future moves. It's fun and help me make my brain as useful as it can be. I have to make it clear for all aliens including you. I am not predicting anything but projecting what is in my mind.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,767
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:31am Dec 8, 2012 10:31am
Quoting maximmm
haha - triangle is a part of ewp - PA moving to the bottom of the triangle prior to breaking to the upside would not in any way detract from the ewp projection. I'm not sure where you see the conflict with ewp. Oh well.
MAXIM, triangle is a part of EWP. That is correct. But, a channel may have higher hierarchical rank than a triangle in this case. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,768
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:34am Dec 8, 2012 10:34am
Quoting maximmm
haha - triangle is a part of ewp - PA moving to the bottom of the triangle prior to breaking to the upside would not in any way detract from the ewp projection. I'm not sure where you see the conflict with ewp. Oh well.
I know you are a true believer of triangles. I believe triangles are good trading setups. But, I wouldn't just take them for granted without further investigations.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,769
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:35am Dec 8, 2012 10:35am
Quoting DaddyBear
alien, you see it does not cost me a penny to project the Aussie's future moves. It's fun and help me make my brain as useful as it can be. I have to make it clear for all aliens including you. I am not predicting anything but projecting what is in my mind.
I am a thinker also. This is like a chess game, flying space ships, or instrument flying though the clouds.....Most of what I see on the charts are technicals short term, fundimentals long term. I enjoy your reverse opinions on peoples ideas. It either puts them in the game to think harder about what they see, or it makes them walk away, which is human nature. either way they turn, it is their final choice.
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #18,770
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:37am Dec 8, 2012 10:37am
Quoting DaddyBear
MAXIM, triangle is a part of EWP. That is correct. But, a channel may have higher hierarchical rank than a triangle in this case. IMO
I can certainly see a channel and I will close half of my shorts at 1.0400 with a sell order below that figure as a precaution. If Aud does go higher, it will later retest 1.05 prior to the last wave to 1.0670. I suspect though that the channel will be broken and 1.015 will be retested before any consideration of a move higher (a test of 0.98 figure is also possible). COT numbers support that notion.
  • #18,771
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:39am Dec 8, 2012 10:39am
Quoting DaddyBear
MAXIM, triangle is a part of EWP. That is correct. But, a channel may have higher hierarchical rank than a triangle in this case. IMO
As to the hierarchical rank, I believe EWP is just a part of the Law of the Market. The markets' paths were preset long time ago before men left the Garden of Eden. I am trying to discover those paths with EWP and ADX. Sometimes I was right on but sometimes I got lost. It's not an easy task but intriguing indeed.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,772
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:39am Dec 8, 2012 10:39am
Quoting DaddyBear
MAXIM, triangle is a part of EWP. That is correct. But, a channel may have higher hierarchical rank than a triangle in this case. IMO
DB post 18,750 is waiting for your opinions
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #18,773
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:40am Dec 8, 2012 10:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
Regarding your weekly view, I have to disagree based on the following rationales.

First, this has been a very popular and dominant view of the Forex websites. You are using that view as a base to add you opinions to it.

Second, as mentioned before, all long term TF wave formations are corrective patterns. Having said this, the wave C has completed at the end of wave 5. The Aussie has moved to another major downward corrective pattern after wave 5.

Third, unlike impulsive waves, a corrective pattern does not have a 5-wave triangles.

Fourth,...
1.Is my count and follow the principles of EW.
2.Is corrective pattern.
3. Corrective pattern are a) zigzags b) flats c)triangles d) double threes and triple threes.
4.EWP There are two varieties of triangle: contracting and expanding.Within the contracting variety, there are three types: symmetrical, ascending, and descending.
5.In the book The Elliott Waves Principles Prechter lesson 8: triangles pages 21
  • #18,774
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:42am Dec 8, 2012 10:42am
Quoting DaddyBear
As to the hierarchical rank, I believe EWP is just a part of the Law of the Market. The markets' paths were preset long time ago before men left the Garden of Eden. I am trying to discover those paths with EWP and ADX. Sometimes I was right on but sometimes I got lost. It's not an easy task but intriguing indeed.
So you are driving the freeway of Forex, 3 lanes, left , right , or to nowhere until you get there then?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #18,775
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:45am Dec 8, 2012 10:45am
Quoting forexalien
I am a thinker also. This is like a chess game, flying space ships, or instrument flying though the clouds.....Most of what I see on the charts are technicals short term, fundimentals long term. I enjoy your reverse opinions on peoples ideas. It either puts them in the game to think harder about what they see, or it makes them walk away, which is human nature. either way they turn, it is their final choice.
Cannot agree with you more. This forum is a place like Greece's Acropolis 2,000 years ago. The debates, discussions and exchanges by the thinkers like you will benefit everyone participating in this great game, the Forex trading. I hope nobody considers who is right or who is wrong. In the Forex markets, nobody was wrong but right too soon.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,776
  • Edited 11:02am Dec 8, 2012 10:50am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting forexalien
So you are driving the freeway of Forex, 3 lanes, left , right , or to nowhere until you get there then?
My answer: There are only two lanes going to the same direction, Holy Grail. If you know how to drive this highway.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353021718
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,777
  • Dec 8, 2012 10:56am Dec 8, 2012 10:56am
Quoting forexalien
Very Mixed signals in general , as the slower green stochastic fades away and the faster black stochastic is nearing topping out and a reversal is near, the price action is showing weakness. As far as the 4H RSI it is showing signs of retreating lower, Currently RSI divergence is showing on the daily and weekly charts for lower price action. Monthly and weekly ADX have been resting for quite some time. Larger move beginning early next year to be exspected.
alien, sorry that I missed this message.

I see something similar to yours. See my earlier posts below.

Quoting DaddyBear
This is the daily chart with my system-X. The yellow Indicator-X has reached its maximum value. The next move will be down. This will bring the Aussie down with it. The support is near the LTL at 1.044xx.
Quoting DaddyBear
This is a further study of the daily chart. A drop to monthly Pivot and previous daily low is highly possible.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354945207
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,778
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:01am Dec 8, 2012 11:01am
Quoting maximmm
I can certainly see a channel and I will close half of my shorts at 1.0400 with a sell order below that figure as a precaution. If Aud does go higher, it will later retest 1.05 prior to the last wave to 1.0670. I suspect though that the channel will be broken and 1.015 will be retested before any consideration of a move higher (a test of 0.98 figure is also possible). COT numbers support that notion.
Are you holding short positions over this weekend. I suspect a brief gap up is going to take place on Sunday due to CNY data this weekend. As usually, the China fever will recede fast by the pro bears. IMO

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352576752
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,779
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:03am Dec 8, 2012 11:03am
Quoting DaddyBear
Are you holding short positions over this weekend. I suspect a brief gap up is going to take place due to CNY data this weekend. As usually, the China fever will recede fast by the pro bears.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352576752
I am holding shorts over this weekend, aye^^
  • #18,780
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:05am Dec 8, 2012 11:05am
The problem with EWP is, 50,000 different traders can come up with 25,000 different A,B,C's 1,2,3's, a,b,c's, 1a,1b,1c's, x,y,z's, etc.
I agree when you see the PA slowly drift lower or higher and when the big boys see it bottom or top out , then the PA screams up or down to trap the dribble traders. If you want to know the direction of a trend , just look at the direction of the fastest moving PA in those short blasts of time.
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
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