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  • #18,701
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:00pm Dec 7, 2012 4:00pm
Have a good weekend everyone! Many green pips to you next week!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #18,702
  • Edited 7:58pm Dec 7, 2012 7:29pm | Edited 7:58pm
PA analogy -
August 29, 2010 to March 11, 2011 - PA looks eerily similar to the one we have seen in the past 6 months or so.

What happened on the week of march 13, 2011 was a major drop of 500 pips and a very quick recovery - one that led to an uptrend in the following 6 weeks.
By candle count, that week coincides with the week we have coming up this Monday.

Will we see a similar scenario? If so, I would expect a 400 pip drop in aud, then recovery of 300 pips (all within the same week) and the breach of 1.06 in the weeks to come - causing aud to reach as high as 1.12 or even higher before the reversal.

Technically, it would make sense - in order for aud to move higher, it has to flush out the longs - it would also complete the head and shoulders formation - though it will ultimately be rejected at the neckline at 1.0120

If this analogy is correct, next week could be the most exciting week of the year. I dunno about catalysts - horrid Chinese data this weekend (leading to drop) and the fiscal cliff being solved in the same week (for recovery)?

Good luck to all and safe trading.
  • #18,703
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:00pm Dec 7, 2012 8:00pm
Quoting maximmm
PA analogy -
August 29, 2010 to March 11, 2011 - PA looks eerily similar to the one we have seen in the past 6 months or so.

What happened on the week of march 13, 2011 was a major drop of 500 pips and a very quick recovery - one that led to an uptrend in the following 6 weeks.
By candle count, that week coincides with the week we have coming up this Monday.

Will we see a similar scenario? If so, I would expect a 400 pip drop in aud, then recovery of 200 pips and the breach of 1.06 in the weeks to come - causing aud to reach as high as...
i have been trading eur usd to compensate the lsck of volatility in audusd

i guessed many would had already witnessed the tight boring and lethargic range of aud usd so far. another alternatives are cross aud pairs like eur aud gbp aud audjpy. to predict or analyze the next big move is purely fundamental rather than technical. its more on macro economic and risk situation for heavy drop or qe fomc for steriod bull run. generally one can look for long term and short term. if i see short term i will long on good level of bounce. where short aud from these levels for long term target parity and 0.98 as focus. but short aud is not prefer on swap account. there are no swap account for that on long term .
  • #18,704
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:00pm Dec 7, 2012 8:00pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1354927268
not euphoria follower
  • #18,705
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:09pm Dec 7, 2012 8:09pm
Quoting 5percent
i have been trading eur usd to compensate the lsck of volatility in audusd

i guessed many would had already witnessed the tight boring and lethargic range of aud usd so far. another alternatives are cross aud pairs like eur aud gbp aud audjpy. to predict or analyze the next big move is purely fundamental rather than technical. its more on macro economic and risk situation for heavy drop or qe fomc for steriod bull run. generally one can look for long term and short term. if i see short term i will long on good level of bounce. where short aud from...
In other words, you only go long when it comes to aud?!^^
  • #18,706
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:11pm Dec 7, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting 5percent
i have been trading eur usd to compensate the lsck of volatility in audusd

i guessed many would had already witnessed the tight boring and lethargic range of aud usd so far. another alternatives are cross aud pairs like eur aud gbp aud audjpy. to predict or analyze the next big move is purely fundamental rather than technical. its more on macro economic and risk situation for heavy drop or qe fomc for steriod bull run. generally one can look for long term and short term. if i see short term i will long on good level of bounce. where short aud from...
I think only if aud closes below 1.01 will it reach 0.98 figure
  • #18,707
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:16pm Dec 7, 2012 8:16pm
Looking at the 4 hour chart, that 450 pip drop in 2011 took only 2 days with the rest of the week spent with aud going up
  • #18,708
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:23pm Dec 7, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting maximmm
Looking at the 4 hour chart, that 450 pip drop in 2011 took only 2 days with the rest of the week leading to the major recovery
in 2010-2011 aud volaility and daily range are big. most times i see 150-200 one day. but bc that time aud is highly correlated with many instrumemts. but now with many central banks keeping aud reserves and we witness the shift of corelatiom as a risk currency. its less volatile that way as often offers and bids come in play. unlike in eur a strong is likley to burst. yes 1.01 is the gateway of that rally from 0.96-1.06 . serves as a door way to parity. why 0.98? a higher low on the down side 0.93-0.94 - 0.95-0.96 so now anticipsting a 0 97-0.98. there are times aud csn drop more than 450 see earlier yeare chart where aud was 0.6
  • #18,709
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:30pm Dec 7, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting 5percent
in 2010-2011 aud volaility and daily range are big. most times i see 150-200 one day. but bc that time aud is highly correlated with many instrumemts. but now with many central banks keeping aud reserves and we witness the shift of corelatiom as a risk currency. its less volatile that way as often offers and bids come in play. unlike in eur a strong is likley to burst. yes 1.01 is the gateway of that rally from 0.96-1.06 . serves as a door way to parity. why 0.98? a higher low on the down side 0.93-0.94 - 0.95-0.96 so now anticipsting a 0 97-0.98....
I know why 0.98 - I didn't lose you there - it's the bottom of the year old triangle formation - but for that number to be reached 1.01 has to be broken first. Although it is possible, I would also not be surprised if 1.012 served as the bounce line - from which Aud would go above 1.06

Look at the price action from last 6 month and compare it to the one from august 2010 to march 2011 - you say that volatility was much higher than it is now, but actually it was exactly the same. Albeit - it was MUCH higher prior in 2008 - then again, I'm NOT projecting a 2008 scenario @@
  • #18,710
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:37pm Dec 7, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting maximmm
I know why 0.98 - I didn't lose you there - it's the bottom of the year old triangle formation - but for that number to be reached 1.01 has to be broken first. Although it is possible, I would also not be surprised if 1.012 served as the bounce line - from which Aud would go above 1.06

Look at the price action from last 6 month and compare it to the one from august 2010 to march 2011 - you say that volatility was much higher than it is now, but actually it was exactly the same. I'm not sure which numbers you are looking at - seriously.
I am speaking as per-se daily range . now i look at my broker i see, 40 pips range, 50 pips range, 60 pips range T_T most of the times. and 1 hour bar moves like 5-7 pips or even just 12-15 pips. Asia's volatility can sometimes slam on the wall, moves few pips every few hour, up then down, making scalping/set up even more boring. AUD looks good on buy sell limits over buy sell stops [ not like 1.05 would had shoot to 1.0550 in 50 pips breakout, but it just went up to touch down and slam down], as it's not very likely to crash, but likely to reject on both sides. Hving a friday's high lower than 1.0515, its looking like a lower hi, if its a lower hi, once 1.0480 train move into 1.0450, its going down more. btm we have 1.0390-1.0400. which we expect a higher low @ 1.0410-20 to keep this battle of uptrend involves.



A 5 min candle in eur/usd move 5-10 pips, 15mins 15-20 pips in us session, that's what i am talking about. though yes i know eur/usd is the no.1 traded pair. but last year when i was actively trading aus/usd, or even just in early 1st 4 months this year where aud was 1.08-1.3 area, that was active as well, it moves fast and furious. Now trading aud/ i just need a horizontal line on pa, if u look at the 1 hour bars, u get what i mean.

Why 0.98 is because i am expecting aud to be continued as a uptrend on low, so ye that would serve ur btm year of triangle. But still, we can't determine a drop from 1.0490 into 1.01 that short while, it can be done, but the levels of support below, is making it hard. And with fundamental moving such way it does not make usd nor eur look good, making aud gradually becoming a stable currency over a risk currency as label by IMF.
  • #18,711
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:42pm Dec 7, 2012 8:42pm
This is the daily chart with my system-X. The yellow Indicator-X has reached its maximum value. The next move will be down. This will bring the Aussie down with it. The support is near the LTL at 1.044xx.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-120712-D.JPG Size: 106 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,712
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:43pm Dec 7, 2012 8:43pm
BTW, a similar weekly formation was also witnessed in 2009 -
August 2009 to April 2010 - that time, the drop was much more significant - BUT there was also something different - that time, aud briefly broke the downtrend line by 150 pips (so, aud would go to 1.0670 in this case) and then suddenly reversed to drop 1500 pips.

I still think though that the first scenario is more likely. For the first scenario, aud would have to start its drop sooner rather than later - that is, it would not go above 1.0520
  • #18,713
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:46pm Dec 7, 2012 8:46pm
Quoting 5percent
I am speaking as per-se daily range . now i look at my broker i see, 40 pips range, 50 pips range, 60 pips range T_T most of the times. and 1 hour bar moves like 5-7 pips or even just 12-15 pips. Asia's volatility can sometimes slam on the wall, moves few pips every few hour, up then down, making scalping/set up even more boring. AUD looks good on buy sell limits over buy sell stops [ not like 1.05 would had shoot to 1.0550 in 50 pips breakout, but it just went up to touch down and slam down], as it's not very likely to crash, but likely to reject...
I've just posted a second possible scenario - it appears that if aud does break higher, then it will also move much lower than 0.98 figure at very rapid pace.

In other words, if aud does bounce off 1.04 - and goes above 1.0520 - then aud would face a much more bearish scenario.
  • #18,714
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:55pm Dec 7, 2012 8:55pm
Quoting maximmm
BTW, a similar weekly formation was also witnessed in 2009 -
August 2009 to April 2010 - that time, the drop was much more significant - BUT there was also something different - that time, aud briefly broke the downtrend line by 150 pips (so, aud would go to 1.0670 in this case) and then suddenly reversed to drop 1500 pips.

I still think though that the first scenario is more likely. For the first scenario, aud would have to start its drop sooner rather than later - that is, it would not go above 1.0520
History repeats itself, but your assumption of a ceiling at 1.0520 based on a cherry picked PA in the history may not be the case this time.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,715
  • Dec 7, 2012 9:01pm Dec 7, 2012 9:01pm
Quoting DaddyBear
History repeats itself, but your assumption of a ceiling at 1.0520 based on a cherry picked PA in the history may not be the case this time.
Err... 1.520 is not cherry picked in history - it's a one year resistance. Unless..... trendlines and yearly triangles are mere illusions in your view.

Regardless, I am very open to a much bigger drop from 1.0670 - there you have a very strong supply zone - if you're the supply/demand type of trader^^

The second scenario though would mean that buying above 1.06 could be by far more risky than most realize.

Thus, essentially I am considering two possible scenarios - either a drop now and a big rebound, or a move higher but a by far more significant drop from slightly higher levels - the second scenario would cause aud to go much lower than 0.98 at a vary rapid pace. Again, I don't see the second scenario as being likely (unless fiscal cliff talks fail and no resolution is found by the deadline) and see the first scenario as being the more realistic one.

These - as they say, are my cards -
  • #18,716
  • Dec 7, 2012 9:09pm Dec 7, 2012 9:09pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is the daily chart with my system-X. The yellow Indicator-X has reached its maximum value. The next move will be down. This will bring the Aussie down with it. The support is near the LTL at 1.044xx.
This drop may be swift and to be bounced off after hitting the support. IMO

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354934465
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,717
  • Edited 9:33pm Dec 7, 2012 9:10pm | Edited 9:33pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This drop may be swift and to be bounced off after hitting the support. IMO

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354934465
In that case, I would expect a very significant drop from 1.0670 - a drop below 0.98. These two scenarios, of course, are based on the 'history repeats itself' condition.
  • #18,718
  • Dec 7, 2012 10:06pm Dec 7, 2012 10:06pm
Quoting maximmm
Err... 1.520 is not cherry picked in history - it's a one year resistance. Unless..... trendlines and yearly triangles are mere illusions in your view.

Regardless, I am very open to a much bigger drop from 1.0670 - there you have a very strong supply zone - if you're the supply/demand type of trader^^

The second scenario though would mean that buying above 1.06 could be by far more risky than most realize.

Thus, essentially I am considering two possible scenarios - either a drop now and a big rebound, or a move higher but a by far more significant...
I understand your concept very well. You are thinking that the DTL is a resistance and cannot be penetrated. However, the current a-b-c pattern has accumulated plenty of energy. When it is unwinding, the Aussie will be pushed over the DTL and heads toward Weekly Destination C. [Not the H4 Destination C.]


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352525455
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,719
  • Dec 7, 2012 10:08pm Dec 7, 2012 10:08pm
Quoting maximmm
In that case, I would expect a very significant drop from 1.0670 - a drop below 0.98. These two scenarios, of course, are based on the 'history repeats itself' condition.
My view is that the Aussie will reach 1.10xx before a major drop.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,720
  • Dec 7, 2012 10:17pm Dec 7, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I understand your concept very well. You are thinking that the DTL is a resistance and cannot be penetrated. However, the current a-b-c pattern has accumulated plenty of energy. When it is unwinding, the Aussie will be pushed over the DTL and heads toward Weekly Destination C. [Not the H4 Destination C.]
Current a-b-c pattern has tested weekly DTL twice already. Although these two tests failed, it may be tough for the bears to hold back the bulls this time. I won't be surprised that the next initial test is rejected at the DTL. But, the following tests will break this line in the sand and ejects the Aussie into the Deep Space.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352525455
daddybearforex. com
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