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  • #127,161
  • Dec 7, 2012 3:32pm Dec 7, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting kenfen69


I'm down with that! At least we got some flows back this week. EU nearly at three digit ADR again. EA just over. AU still a bum at 63, though!

Cliff this, and cliff that should hopefully allow the flows to continue.

might be wrong but i think 12500's in play till the end of the year
  • #127,162
  • Dec 7, 2012 3:36pm Dec 7, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting kill56
might be wrong but i think 12500's in play till the end of the year


Shiny? Fibre? DOW? ES? EA?

All of them?

  • #127,163
  • Dec 7, 2012 3:42pm Dec 7, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting kenfen69
You think we'll see the 1650 soon?

if i am not mistaken i think by end of next week we should visit it then the big bounce, u do remember the $100 from 1750 ,


one more thing with unemployment going down in the US a close below 1650 will take us deep down 1420 will be wide open


man told u i am high
  • #127,164
  • Dec 7, 2012 3:50pm Dec 7, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting kenfen69


Shiny? Fibre? DOW? ES? EA?

All of them?


fiber 12500 gold 1650


es and dow west but not far then comes the big dump 1440's es dow 13400;s unless no deal on fiscal cliff (dont think so) obamoo with voodoo power now


sokers this not a call for trade , look at u dam chart and trade what u see i am high
  • #127,165
  • Dec 7, 2012 3:51pm Dec 7, 2012 3:51pm
Quoting kill56
man told u i am high



Quoting kill56
u do remember the $100 from 1750
February 29th (leap year) 2012...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1D.PNG Size: 42 KB


$1790 to $1686 in about 8 hours!


Quoting kill56
one more thing with unemployment going down in the US a close below 1650 will take us deep down 1420 will be wide open
Sure...if those numbers stick, tough not to favour shorts.
  • #127,166
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:01pm Dec 7, 2012 4:01pm
That's a wrap...get next door, killer...

Attached Image
  • #127,167
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:06pm Dec 7, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting kenfen69





February 29th (leap year) 2012...

Attachment

$1790 to $1686 in about 8 hours!




Sure...if those numbers stick, tough not to favour shorts.
look at this we did bounce 3 times of 80's dont think will hold next time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1dgold.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #127,168
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:08pm Dec 7, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting kenfen69


2970 would do the trick now. In fine shape again. Happy to see 2850 didn't print while I slept. Could have woke up .

Nice to have you about, Markus...always enjoy your views.

Enjoy your weekend, mate.


Hi Ken,

nice to be here (nice that you let me in)


Good to see 2970 - Let us look what I expect to happen:


When this is a wave 4 retrace, the premium area for a wave 4 retrace is 2958, 2983 and 3002

Since we have a nice point of recognition in the wave 3 down at around 3020, often wave 4's will challenge that.

On 4h the EMA 21 comes now in around 2992, but around 2975 we have the EMA 234 of 15min and 1h TF



Looking at my S/R-chart, I see 2967, 2991 and 3019 as bigger hurdle


Judging from EW and harmonic EW on 1, 2 and 4h TF, harmonic EW paints a clearer picture: there is a wave 5 down missing so far.

When I assume a retracement for this wave 4 to 2970, then the premium area for end of wave 5 is 2838-2827, 2807 and 2787

If wave 4 challenges the 3020 point of recognition, the targets are 2859 and 2837 (we can only calculate exactly, when wave 4 has ended)



When I look across the EW landscape, most seem to be under the impression, that this wave down over the last days is a corrective wave 4 (down) or part of it. And ask Sisse - when most of the Elliotticans are on the same page they are likely wrong LOL

Well, when this wave down is the complete wave 4, it is strange, because it has the best impulsive structure since weeks.

So we have to think about the impulsive A wave of a wave 4. But that would lead to a wave C (of the ABC zigzag), that likely would go into the 2817 area. That would make many counts invalid or looking very suspect. OK, in theory, this wave 4 down can literally go down to around 2801 without invalidating this count, but the probability is against it very clearly. Most of the time a wave 4 retraces between 18 and 36% of wave 3. And with todays low we had around 58% already.

I like to have waves with the right look, and such a count seems to not look right


So back to the idea that we are in a downward impulse:

Look at daily TF:

we see three waves down. That calls for an completed impulse. Should the impulse not be completed, we likely get an extended wave 5.

That has a severe implication on this TF AND other TF's: any correction now higher than 2972 will nullify the chance for an extended 5, because this would then move above the starting point of the subwave 1 of this extended wave 5.


And waves are fractal. We can not have a substantially different count on H1 and D1


So, above I said, that a wave 4 often challenges the point of recognition. But in this special case it will not happen. A movement towards 3020 would invalidate such a count on daily TF.


So trading advise is:


short

break above of 2972 by a single pip will most likely lead to a higher retracement towards 3000 to 3038, extended 3062

So a short with a SL at 2974 will give an excellent opportunity for a decline towards at least 2878, but more like sub 2840


long

long at 2974 with target 3000 to 3038
  • #127,169
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:08pm Dec 7, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting kenfen69
That's a wrap...get next door, killer...

Attachment

i am bro enjoy the weekend
  • #127,170
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:10pm Dec 7, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Ken,

nice to be here (nice that you let me in)


Good to see 2970 - Let us look what I expect to happen:


When this is a wave 4 retrace, the premium area for a wave 4 retrace is 2958, 2983 and 3002

Since we have a nice point of recognition in the wave 3 down at around 3020, often wave 4's will challenge that.

On 4h the EMA 21 comes now in around 2992, but around 2975 we have the EMA 234 of 15min and 1h TF



Looking at my S/R-chart, I see 2967, 2991 and 3019 as bigger hurdle


Judging from EW and harmonic EW on...
thanks bro enjoy the weekend
  • #127,171
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:11pm Dec 7, 2012 4:11pm
junkiesssssssssssssssss


have a great weekend dont fak it up
  • #127,172
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:32pm Dec 7, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting kill56
junkiesssssssssssssssss


have a great weekend dont fak it up
always trying kill , have a good one
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #127,173
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:56pm Dec 7, 2012 4:56pm
Nice weekend to all of you :-)


Enjoy the time, move your lazy bones or other parts of your body



Catch you all on Sunday,


Markus
  • #127,174
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:58pm Dec 7, 2012 4:58pm
Daily
Close1,2926
Range96
High1,2971
Low1,2875

R31,3069
R21,3020
R11,2973
Pivot1,2924
S11,2877
S21,2828
S31,2781


for Sunday/Monday
  • #127,175
  • Dec 7, 2012 7:28pm Dec 7, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting kenfen69


I'm down with that! At least we got some flows back this week. EU nearly at three digit ADR again. EA just over. AU still a bum at 63, though!

Cliff this, and cliff that should hopefully allow the flows to continue.
I don't know, what to make of that cliff thing. Honestly, is there a fair possibility that they don't get a deal done?
From what I understand, if they raise the taxes, the consumers get hit hardest - as usual. The way they react cannot be in the government's interest, can it?
  • #127,176
  • Dec 7, 2012 7:36pm Dec 7, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
I don't know, what to make of that cliff thing. Honestly, is there a fair possibility that they don't get a deal done?
From what I understand, if they raise the taxes, the consumers get hit hardest - as usual. The way they react cannot be in the government's interest, can it?
i reckon they'll come to some kind of agreement... kick the can down the road for a few years... deficit is going exponential anyway...

http://www.usdebtclock.org/
  • #127,177
  • Dec 7, 2012 7:38pm Dec 7, 2012 7:38pm
so a rather jolly whip-saw after all that then, to wind up pretty much at the pre new york opening level...
  • #127,178
  • Dec 7, 2012 11:20pm Dec 7, 2012 11:20pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
i reckon they'll come to some kind of agreement... kick the can down the road for a few years... deficit is going exponential anyway...

http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Sad part is, from a deficit perspective, the better, long term approach is no deal being made. Although, if they fail to make a deal, they'll just put up new laws saying basically, it doesn't' count.

Oh yeah, and the slow emergence of a new recession. When you run yourself into a hole so big... what can be done? You either limp along and slowly die... or cut your losses and try and rebuild from there.
  • #127,179
  • Dec 8, 2012 2:42am Dec 8, 2012 2:42am
Quoting Venice
Sad part is, from a deficit perspective, the better, long term approach is no deal being made. Although, if they fail to make a deal, they'll just put up new laws saying basically, it doesn't' count.

Oh yeah, and the slow emergence of a new recession. When you run yourself into a hole so big... what can be done? You either limp along and slowly die... or cut your losses and try and rebuild from there.
what's sad is seeing your country being run into the ground, it's the same here, i used to be proud of my country, now i'm just ashamed of what it's become...
  • #127,180
  • Dec 8, 2012 2:43am Dec 8, 2012 2:43am
read sokers


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/div...lty-2012-12-06
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