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Fail Better

  • #4,781
  • Dec 5, 2012 12:47pm Dec 5, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting Amart83
The normal schedule for Webinars will resume this Sunday. From the e-mail Tom sent out 4 days ago:
I didn`t get that...thanks
  • #4,782
  • Dec 5, 2012 12:55pm Dec 5, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting Mezzy
I like that one! Bet you could ride it down quite a ways.
I see these zones . Don't really know which will work out.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,783
  • Dec 5, 2012 3:50pm Dec 5, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting Rust
SFP quickie for today:
Attachment

I am still a newbie on these SFPs, doing my record on them the last 2-3 months .... and they just don't want to fail.
Literally just watched the webinar on SFPs yesterday so I could be totally wrong, but I thought the key part of a SFP is a big swing in and then a big swing out and then another big swing back up and past the original swing point, this example seems to be a big messy and not clean sharp swings..?
  • #4,784
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:24pm Dec 5, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting andyhardwick
Literally just watched the webinar on SFPs yesterday so I could be totally wrong, but I thought the key part of a SFP is a big swing in and then a big swing out and then another big swing back up and past the original swing point, this example seems to be a big messy and not clean sharp swings..?
I haven't watched the webinar, but to me, the only logical thing to be watching at a SFP are the orders/traders there. Is it an obvious place to other traders too, so that we have liquidity there (cause after all, the reason price actually moves is to find liquidity) ?

1) Are there many SL orders placed above/below the previous high/low that can be hit with the SFP bar?

2) Is this a place where Breakout traders will come in and start puking when the price reverses on them and try to bail out => Slippage => Price quickly moves in our favor.

This is my opinion . Feel free to comment/add Tom
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,785
  • Dec 5, 2012 9:40pm Dec 5, 2012 9:40pm
Is anyone scalping these levels on the 1m/5m TF?

In my downtime awaiting the bigger levels to hit, I've had limited success with this running through forextester, taking just the first few pips of a reaction. Curious if anyone here has traded in similar fashion?
  • #4,786
  • Dec 6, 2012 4:09pm Dec 6, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I haven't watched the webinar, but to me, the only logical thing to be watching at a SFP are the orders/traders there. Is it an obvious place to other traders too, so that we have liquidity there (cause after all, the reason price actually moves is to find liquidity) ?

1) Are there many SL orders placed above/below the previous high/low that can be hit with the SFP bar?

2) Is this a place where Breakout traders will come in and start puking when the price reverses on them and try to bail out => Slippage => Price quickly moves in our...
I definitely agree with this but Tom says in the webinar that the the swings are very important as well, strong movements away from and into the level, not drifting.

Hope to hear other comments
  • #4,787
  • Dec 6, 2012 9:40pm Dec 6, 2012 9:40pm
A couple of levels I'll be watching tonight..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,788
  • Dec 7, 2012 12:37am Dec 7, 2012 12:37am
Quoting sam0182
A couple of levels I'll be watching tonight..
gbp/usd BEOB D1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,789
  • Dec 7, 2012 12:54am Dec 7, 2012 12:54am
Quoting pex
gbp/usd BEOB D1
Looks good Pex, there's a 50% fib there too for those who like them.

NFP Friday.... don't bet the farm.
  • #4,790
  • Dec 7, 2012 1:43am Dec 7, 2012 1:43am
3 touches, strong break - crude :
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  • #4,791
  • Dec 7, 2012 3:21am Dec 7, 2012 3:21am
Quoting sam0182
A couple of levels I'll be watching tonight..

Hey Sam, I notice you were watching a level higher up level on EURJPY, however the 106.92 level had so many support touches before the clean break down that made it look good. I took it for around 30 pips but should have squeezed more.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,792
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:44am Dec 7, 2012 4:44am
Quoting NTM
do you trade at futex?
Yes
  • #4,793
  • Dec 7, 2012 4:45am Dec 7, 2012 4:45am
Quoting sam0182
Is anyone scalping these levels on the 1m/5m TF?

In my downtime awaiting the bigger levels to hit, I've had limited success with this running through forextester, taking just the first few pips of a reaction. Curious if anyone here has traded in similar fashion?
Sam, I am scalping levels using the 5m in addition to trading H1 and having a very good deal of success with it.

It requires a lot of focus though.
  • #4,794
  • Edited 5:02am Dec 7, 2012 4:52am | Edited 5:02am
Quoting the_wizard
Sam, I am scalping levels using the 5m in addition to trading H1 and having a very good deal of success with it.

It requires a lot of focus though.
Hey Tom,

How many playable level based trades (blind touches) this method produces for you on H1? Per week or month...
And how many SFP based?
  • #4,795
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:03am Dec 7, 2012 6:03am
Favorit on my watchlist:
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  • #4,796
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:06am Dec 7, 2012 6:06am
One more:
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  • #4,797
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:15am Dec 7, 2012 6:15am
Quoting the_wizard
Sam, I am scalping levels using the 5m in addition to trading H1 and having a very good deal of success with it.

It requires a lot of focus though.
Thanks for the feedback Tom.
  • #4,798
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:17am Dec 7, 2012 6:17am
Quoting FX Dreamer
Hey Sam, I notice you were watching a level higher up level on EURJPY, however the 106.92 level had so many support touches before the clean break down that made it look good. I took it for around 30 pips but should have squeezed more.
Nice trade. I definitely see the level now, just didn't when I looked over the charts last night.
  • #4,799
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:18am Dec 7, 2012 6:18am
Nice charts Pex & KarlfromHU
  • #4,800
  • Dec 7, 2012 2:26pm Dec 7, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting andyhardwick
I definitely agree with this but Tom says in the webinar that the the swings are very important as well, strong movements away from and into the level, not drifting.

Hope to hear other comments
Great topic for discussion. My 2 cents with chart attached. If you're still not sure, take the A+ setups. Tom isn't going to teach anything that isn't an A+ setup so his teachings trump all. Once you become better at analyzing SFPs and the context behind them, you can trade them at your discretion like how DaGrizlyBull did.

Andy, you have the right idea; big swing up, big swing down, then a move back, take out the high, close below the high. If Tom says to look for a strong move back up on the second attempt, then take his word over mines, but personally, I don't like to see a big swing back up. I like to see a move back up that is weaker than the previous move up. In the chart we're referencing, the move took 4 candles after the swing low to get back up, where as the first time it took just 1 candle. It's a lot more candles if you include the down swing. The psychology behind wanting to see a weak move back, IMO: longs are scared by the strong rejection and are trying to get out at the highest price, which is stalling the move back up. The smart, patient long have their S/L behind the BUEB (Bullish Engulfing Bar) and set their T/P at the high of the Big Bear candle, which will add to the reversal of the order flow. Longs are probably not going to be committed based on the numerous tests of the BUEB low along with that Big Bear candle. Their suspicions will be confirmed by the SFP.

As for the drifting, I'm not sure if you're referring to the swing down or the swing back up. If you're referring to the swing back up, well, I personally would be cautions of a one-candle swing up back to that level. If the drifting you're referring to is the down swing, I offered my explanation above and in the chart, IMO, of what that drifting may have meant.

Personally, I don't trade SFPs (never around to catch em when they happen), but I look to them for bias on exhausted trends as an indication of a trend reversal.

Quoting pex
I didn`t get that...thanks
No problem, you might want to check w/ Tom to see if you're on the list so you don't miss out.
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