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  • #18,541
  • Dec 6, 2012 5:53pm Dec 6, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting 5percent
possible . it can just be a lower high. since been ranging for days and weeks and months btw 1.0150-1.0490. went up to touch 1.0515 area to be stronger to come down ye. see weekly closing for an idea. friday can be unpredictable too. though it dont seems like a reversal pattern from a top.
if we are in this range then this month we will see 1.02 ?????

then back to 1.05 again next month..
  • #18,542
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:01pm Dec 6, 2012 6:01pm
Quoting HelloOz
if we are in this range then this month we will see 1.02 ?????

then back to 1.05 again next month..
i have no idea. this is an old picture that i did last month, price is still inside the blue box, and trading mainly in 1.02-1.05. With 1.0150 area and 1.0615/21 area as top and bottom. i have been merely ranging trade aus/usd , buy lo sell hi within the box perimeter, it looks good to buy on dip as it bounces most of the time with a pin bar 1 hour, and still it look good to sell from 1.0480-1.0490, and yet we have 1.0515 yesterday which was rejected and closed near 1.0500, so we have a wick there. Price been mainly in 23.6-50.0, wherever the price is nearing the wall, one can look to be bullish or bearish on either side.

Who knows tonight, nfp aud shoot up to 1.0600 once again to form a triple top range before heading either way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: year price action.png Size: 45 KB
  • #18,543
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:05pm Dec 6, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting 5percent
i have no idea. this is an old picture that i did last month, price is still inside the blue box, and trading mainly in 1.02-1.05. With 1.0150 area and 1.0615/21 area as top and bottom. i have been merely ranging trade aus/usd , buy lo sell hi within the box perimeter, it looks good to buy on dip as it bounces most of the time with a pin bar 1 hour, and still it look good to sell from 1.0480-1.0490, and yet we have 1.0515 yesterday which was rejected and closed near 1.0500, so we have a wick there.

Who knows tonight, nfp aud shoot up to 1.0600...
NFP has to be really bad for aud to shoot up to 1.0600
  • #18,544
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:14pm Dec 6, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting HelloOz
NFP has to be really bad for aud to shoot up to 1.0600
to be very honest, it's very hard to analyze a data outcome in US timing on price action. By the time a trader look at the tweets, refresh the data page, check on bloomberg tv, and each time in the us session, there can be many fundamental news updates about politics and etc, or a hero start to open his mouth, risk sentiment is on or off by that time, algo going crazy or not etc. Price move faster than time spend analyzing on what the news is all about, the fine prints etc etc.

But a trader can possibly open himself to 2 possibilities for instant, a sell from 1.0515-1.0500 area with a good stop above high or probably BE by now, with a his buy on area 1.03-1.04, our recent low 1.0390-1.04 , and start trailing his positions up about -20/40 pips away from live rates. Nursing 2 trades both way, hedging himself. But sometimes nfp can be an ass, go up 80 pips, go down 100 pips, can be random, just to hit stop hunt etc. If in good scenarios, if its meant to go up, the price action will attacked 1.0500 again and overlaped 1.0515, then u can cut the loser, at be or mere pips lost, with ur remaining longs higher into 1.0490 or the leap area of breakout point, who knows by end of the session u hit 1.06, u can even trail to 1.0515 by then as it can be the breakout point of resistance turns support.




my method of trading nfp would be using a good risk reward to buy high, sell lo within the consolidation away the live rates using buy sell stops with good risk reward and trailing stops. U can catch a move down, then a move up a few times. That's famous to be done in FOMC news trading, where price action go up and down crazy for 15mins . Why bother marrying to a single direction?

the first jumper/diver i always see is GOLD , first to dive or leap
  • #18,545
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:20pm Dec 6, 2012 6:20pm
i dont trade on news anymore, by the time we analyzed the numbers.. bots are already closing their positions..
and we are in distribution phase..


Quoting 5percent
to be very honest, it's very hard to analyze a data outcome in US timing on price action. By the time a trader look at the tweets, refresh the data page, check on bloomberg tv, and each time in the us session, there can be many fundamental news updates about politics and etc, or a hero start to open his mouth, risk sentiment is on or off by that time, algo going crazy or not etc. Price move faster than time spend analyzing on what the news is all about, the fine prints etc etc.

But a trader can possibly open himself to 2 possibilities for instant,...
  • #18,546
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:27pm Dec 6, 2012 6:27pm
Quoting HelloOz
i dont trade on news anymore, by the time we analyzed the numbers.. bots are already closing their positions..
and we are in distribution phase..
correct, but news trading are opportunities too, just like what happened yesterday where 1.0500 barrier was attacked, if a person want to play short term price action, he can just place a buy stop on 1.0500, where price actually landed on 1.0481 as resistance turns support first before going up to hit 1.0515 area.

A short term buy stops can be accompanied by 10-15 or more pips take profit, or using trailing stops to break even that position, so even if price got rejected to form a wick or resistance/supply line, the 1.0500 is cut, can be followed with a sell stop below 1.05 again to catch the rejection downwards, always be opened to 2 possibilities at all time, so a retailer can reap both sides of the game. We ain't here betting on its bullishness/bearishness, unless u have a long from under parity, then u can hope and pray for its continuation to 1.08-1.10. but if without a good positions in + pips BE, then it's practically no point to marry to a single direction.

Yesterday, euro took the dive, everyone was aiming 1.3139/70 1.32/1.34, then suddenly price went down, now everyone will be speaking 1.26/1.24/1.20, it's a joke. Then later if tonight eur go to 1.32, then those shorters can stunned lol. It does happen. Just like how 1.20 climbed to 1.3170. when short seller was selling all the way from 1.24-1.26 aiming 1.18 back then.

News trading are good opportunities because price move very fast within spans of minutes/hours, if u are right, u can nail a handsome payout, if ur wrong, cut it short and try to go with the flow, if wrong 2 times by false spikes in either direction, get out for the day with small losers. One thing i don't recommend is using sell/buy limits, unless one is so precised with the level of important bids/bounce area of a base, can be dangered against the flow of trend, stops are better in terms of trend, and that's the key pusher of trend during volatility, not limits.
  • #18,547
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:30pm Dec 6, 2012 6:30pm
ill comment this later,
im waiting for data..
GL

Quoting 5percent
correct, but news trading are opportunities too, just like what happened yesterday where 1.0500 barrier was attacked, if a person want to play short term price action, he can just place a buy stop on 1.0500, where price actually landed on 1.0481 as resistance turns support first before going up to hit 1.0515 area.

A short term buy stops can be accompanied by 10-15 or more pips take profit, or using trailing stops to break even that position, so even if price got rejected to form a wick or resistance/supply line, the 1.0500 is cut, can be followed...
  • #18,548
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:32pm Dec 6, 2012 6:32pm
Quoting HelloOz
ill comment this later,
im waiting for data..
GL
not much change in export..
  • #18,549
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:42pm Dec 6, 2012 6:42pm
hope those new to forex will learn from this..
well said.
if i can put a star on this post, i will
thumbs up.

RE: Euro,
if you remember about the POLL "which one will be reach first.. "
majority of voters (inc me) voted 1.01x, because we were closer to that at the time,
few days later... it went up to mid point and i changed to 1.05x.. LOL..


Quoting 5percent
correct, but news trading are opportunities too, just like what happened yesterday where 1.0500 barrier was attacked, if a person want to play short term price action, he can just place a buy stop on 1.0500, where price actually landed on 1.0481 as resistance turns support first before going up to hit 1.0515 area.

A short term buy stops can be accompanied by 10-15 or more pips take profit, or using trailing stops to break even that position, so even if price got rejected to form a wick or resistance/supply line, the 1.0500 is cut, can be followed...
  • #18,550
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:24pm Dec 6, 2012 7:24pm
This is a daily chart as of 1700 EST close. What I see is that the red cloud is broken. This leaves room for the Aussie to move higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-120612-D.JPG Size: 53 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,551
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:27pm Dec 6, 2012 7:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is a daily chart as of 1700 EST close. What I see is that the red cloud is broken. This leaves room for the Aussie to move higher.
Usually, when a cloud breaks, at least two candles will move into the no cloud void. We have seen one candle entered the void. One more candle to follow is in the cards.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,552
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:52pm Dec 6, 2012 7:52pm
DB,
are you going anywhere this holiday?
  • #18,553
  • Dec 6, 2012 8:05pm Dec 6, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting HelloOz
DB,
are you going anywhere this holiday?
No. Stay home.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,554
  • Dec 6, 2012 8:19pm Dec 6, 2012 8:19pm
A Hammer like Doji has formed at H4 daily support 1.0471.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,555
  • Dec 6, 2012 9:53pm Dec 6, 2012 9:53pm
somebody please poke that bull or bear..
they have been sleeping for 8hrs..
  • #18,556
  • Dec 6, 2012 10:12pm Dec 6, 2012 10:12pm
Quoting HelloOz
somebody please poke that bull or bear..
they have been sleeping for 8hrs..
This is it - we'll be in 10 pip range until January. See you then!^^
  • #18,557
  • Dec 6, 2012 10:30pm Dec 6, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting maximmm
This is it - we'll be in 10 pip range until January. See you then!^^
just give me a range and i will trade at top and bottom.
  • #18,558
  • Dec 6, 2012 10:57pm Dec 6, 2012 10:57pm
Quoting HelloOz
somebody please poke that bull or bear..
they have been sleeping for 8hrs..
This is the prelude of a major move.
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,559
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:02pm Dec 6, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is the prelude of a major move.
The Aussie has been under compression for hours. The unwinding process is imminent. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #18,560
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:06pm Dec 6, 2012 11:06pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is the prelude of a major move.
major move up or down??
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