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  • #9,341
  • Edited 5:43am Dec 5, 2012 5:30am | Edited 5:43am
Hi,

This is the way I see today's short trade. I set the order from the most important to the least important:

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7079/eu20121205.png

Breakdown candle starts at 11:00 CET (GMT+1).

Pros:
Rejection of new day's high (double top)
Green line below Red Line
Breakdown from 4 last candle support
Breakdown from yesterday's high
Phx "gem"- possible high of the Euro session
No expected news for EUR/USD
Bounce from 68 on TDI

Cons:
Long wicks on both sides (raging market)
Countertrend entry, uptrending market in 6 previous days
1.31 psychological level just below the entry point
December! Trade is not that obvious.

Eventually I did not take the trade. Was to affraid that the trade would not follow through. Did not like the indecisive candle prior to entry. If it'd close below recent 3 candle low, I would definitely take the trade. Long wicks on last 5 candles made me sit out.

I'd be grateful if any of experienced traders would be kind and comment my approach and indicate what I missed or what factors are more important than others.


Kind regards,
Michał
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #9,342
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:31am Dec 5, 2012 5:31am
Quoting dee50
Do not have TDI at work. Try this from TP040.

"So, what my manually made TDI is all about:
- RSI 17 (a bit longer than RSI in TDI, but with a reason as it seems RSI in TDI is really closer to about 21 or even more, so it's smoothed somehow; bottom line, I tested the settings and this seems ok)
- Exponential 7, close on first indicator data (so, RSI) = trade signal line
- Exponential 34, close on first indicator data (so again, on RSI) = market sentiment
- Bollinger band, also close on first indicator data, but with deviation 1 (this is a...


dee50

so mean of your post is, we can replace/substitute TDI with
- RSI 17 (a bit longer than RSI in TDI, but with a reason as it seems RSI in TDI is really closer to about 21 or even more, so it's smoothed somehow; bottom line, I tested the settings and this seems ok)
- Exponential 7, close on first indicator data (so, RSI) = trade signal line
- Exponential 34, close on first indicator data (so again, on RSI) = market sentiment
- Bollinger band, also close on first indicator data, but with deviation 1 (this is a big difference compared to TDI). Cross of that is more powerful than market sentiment in TDI

right??
DB#23
  • #9,343
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:35am Dec 5, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Davidbeckham
dee50

so mean of your post is, we can replace/substitute TDI with
- RSI 17 (a bit longer than RSI in TDI, but with a reason as it seems RSI in TDI is really closer to about 21 or even more, so it's smoothed somehow; bottom line, I tested the settings and this seems ok)
- Exponential 7, close on first indicator data (so, RSI) = trade signal line
- Exponential 34, close on first indicator data (so again, on RSI) = market sentiment
- Bollinger band, also close on first indicator data, but with deviation 1 (this is a big difference compared to TDI)....
Yes. BUT, I have not traded with this setup, no need I have a TDI. So first backtest it. I believe TP040 trades live with it so you should really PM him about it.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,344
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:39am Dec 5, 2012 6:39am
As luck would have it, we got a nice pin bar on a pullback so I re entered for another + 25 pips, so 55 pips for this morning will do me. In hindsight I should have just held my first trade and let it run. I would normally target the 78.6% or the 89% but as we have been in a sustained up trend and these trades were counter trend, I played it safe. Isnīt hindsight a great thing, if only we could trade with it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,345
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:56am Dec 5, 2012 6:56am
Quoting mierzyk
Hi,

This is the way I see today's short trade. I set the order from the most important to the least important:

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7079/eu20121205.png

Breakdown candle starts at 11:00 CET (GMT+1).

Pros:
Rejection of new day's high (double top)
Green line below Red Line
Breakdown from 4 last candle support
Breakdown from yesterday's high
Phx "gem"- possible high of the Euro session
No expected news for EUR/USD
Bounce from 68 on TDI

Cons:
Long wicks on both sides (raging market)
Countertrend entry, uptrending market...
Also, Bearish divergence. What I would consider a strong divergence signal because the divergence comes down from above the 68 to below the 68. If you doubted the trade you could have entered on a break of the BRN 1.3100 but being aware that there is usually a pullback following a break, you could even have entered after the pullback. 2 Good confirmations of a reversal. You are correct in being cautious. I was too. Look at my last trade post you will see the pullback.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,346
  • Edited 3:10am Dec 6, 2012 2:21am | Edited 3:10am
Hi,

Today's trade. Last candle on screen shot is taken few minutes after LO.

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/5892/eu20121206.jpg


Pros:
Pullback-looking bar, rejected the breakout from last 4 candles.
Bearish momentum
Cross of TDI
No serious sell signals, though why not to trade if there are no serious Cons either?

Cons:
Still counter-trend entry
Previous candle pulled back a bit after breaking Asian low.
Close to TDI 32
December, nothing has changed since yesterday


Comments are much appreciated.

Kind regards,
M.



EDIT.

SL hit, creating double-bottom higher close formation. Entered long after candle's close

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/8623/eu201212062.jpg

Pros:
Price reached new low and reversed (Phx62 "gem")
Double bottom higher close formation
Green line sloping up and crossing yellow


Cons
Yellow sloping down
Counter momentum



Thankyou in advance
Kind regards,
M.
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #9,347
  • Dec 6, 2012 3:18am Dec 6, 2012 3:18am
Quoting mierzyk
Hi,

Today's trade. Last candle on screen shot is taken few minutes after LO.



Pros:
Pullback-looking bar, rejected the breakout from last 4 candles.
Bearish momentum
Cross of TDI
No serious sell signals, though why not to trade if there are no serious Cons either?

Cons:
Still counter-trend entry
Previous candle pulled back a bit after breaking Asian low.
Close to TDI 32
December, nothing has changed since yesterday


Comments are much appreciated.

Kind regards,
M.



EDIT.

SL hit, creating double-bottom...
Looking at the same potential trade and agree with your observations but waiting for PA to break and close above 1.3072. I have that marked up as a previous level of support and resistance during the last week.

As Mierzyk, I'd be interested to hear comments on this
  • #9,348
  • Dec 6, 2012 3:31am Dec 6, 2012 3:31am
What do U think??? Range of about 30 - 35 pips until after the ECB press conference???? OR ????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,349
  • Dec 6, 2012 3:46am Dec 6, 2012 3:46am
How does it look this way up'''
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: The other way.png Size: 49 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,350
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:12am Dec 6, 2012 6:12am
Closed the second trade after pullback/engulfing candle 90m prior to the speach. According to X-man, closed the trade just past 1PM CET (GTM+1). Was the decision correct?

Can anyone help me what went wrong with today's trades?

Cheers,
M.

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/5...201212062b.jpg
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #9,351
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:00am Dec 6, 2012 7:00am
Quoting mierzyk
Closed the second trade after pullback/engulfing candle 90m prior to the speach. According to X-man, closed the trade just past 1PM CET (GTM+1). Was the decision correct?

Can anyone help me what went wrong with today's trades?

Cheers,
M.
Hi mierzyk

I went long just above where you entered, when price reached the resistance I mentioned earlier and closed on pullback.
Seems PA is bouncing in a limited range as pointed out by Dee50. Is ranging PA a predictable effect of imminent news releases.

Dee50 can you advise on good news listings. I normally look at DailyFX but I dont think the ECB Press Release is mentioned there.
  • #9,352
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:15am Dec 6, 2012 7:15am
Quoting stephen77

Dee50 can you advise on good news listings. I normally look at DailyFX but I dont think the ECB Press Release is mentioned there.

Forex News | Currency News by ForexLive
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,353
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:46am Dec 6, 2012 7:46am
Quoting dee50
Forex News | Currency News by ForexLive
Thanks for that - looks good
  • #9,354
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:55am Dec 6, 2012 7:55am
Quoting mierzyk
Closed the second trade after pullback/engulfing candle 90m prior to the speach. According to X-man, closed the trade just past 1PM CET (GTM+1). Was the decision correct?

Can anyone help me what went wrong with today's trades?
You should have been flat until after the press conference. these market conditions are typical of Interest Rate decision day. Only scalpers would have been active and that is what creates these whipsaws.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,355
  • Edited 2:39pm Dec 6, 2012 10:14am | Edited 2:39pm
Attached are my trades for the week. I will not be trading the rest of the week....off on a business trip.
Trade 1....a typical London trade....low of session set by 1st candle....price moved up to ADR (after some bouncing around).
Trade 2.....entered during Frankfurt on a break of the Asian session...price retraced...exited at 27 pips.
Trade 3....entered a 20 pip scalp trade following a reversal and move in the direction of the trend.
Trade 4....another typical London trade...high set by first candle...pullback...entry on candle 2.
Trade 5....bounce off the 38 fib of the last impulse leg down...scalp for 20 pips.
Trade 6...lots of resistance above but took trade anyway based on the red Frankfurt session candle which appeared to be the low of the day....taken out at BE.
Trade 7....strong move down on news release...finally got in...exit above 200 EMA and daily resistance. Price continued down but I'm done for the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012.12.6 eu h1 week.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #9,356
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:02pm Dec 6, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting Phx62
Attached are my trades for the week.
Thanks for sharing - appreciate the chance to review & compare
  • #9,357
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:54pm Dec 6, 2012 12:54pm
Better late than never. Had to wait today, patience was really tested but in the end it paid off +73 pips following the News conference. While this trade was looking after itīs self I have been nursing a trade on the E-Mini which ended up whip sawing all over the place again, hence my late posting.

Hope you all prospered and caught this move as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6 12 + 73pips.png Size: 87 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,358
  • Dec 6, 2012 2:00pm Dec 6, 2012 2:00pm
ADVICE TO NEWBIES

Hi, today my account has blown/gone/null money on it. I think it is good to share the reasons:

EUR/USD : I was LONG from .3050 with TP .3120 SL .3020 (later moved to BE)

Mistakes I made:

a) I ignored TP +20 and TP +30 (I used to finish trading on that level of TP and wait next day/ I am newbie TP20-30 is lot of pips to me);
b) ignored that .3085 was tested at least 4 times without result ( in such situations i close trades with profit or leave them alone if it is losing trade);
c) ignored news conference;
d) after each SL I traded new LONGS ;
e) I ignored all my and S3 rules

and at the end of day EUR/USD is .2960...
, why I did that?

because I had followed some advices from day trader who was "120% " sure that it will hit 3,120 today.
I got psychologically so fixed (wow! daytrader gave some advices to newbie and they made profits last days, why should I ignore them today?) on .3120 that I broke all rules and all opportunities to rescue the account or even make some pips.
I completely lost my mind.

Luckily it was small account - no big loss for me, so I will resupply it and begin once again.

Today I have learned important lesson:
" Trade What You See, Not What You Want To See "

best regards
Konosament
  • #9,359
  • Dec 6, 2012 2:19pm Dec 6, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting dee50
See what u mean!!! Top one your version, bottom TDI.
Dee,

I feel very stupid to ask you this but could you please share your template. I'm realty not able to make the custom TDI working. I added the Exponential 7, 34 and the Bollinger by choosing Apply to: First Indicator Data which was the RSI but everything looks very wrong.
Have a look below and feel free to laugh
[IMG]file:///C:/Users/cristi/Desktop/pic1.gif[/IMG]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic1.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #9,360
  • Dec 6, 2012 2:37pm Dec 6, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting Phx62
EU H1 trades I took this week.
The Average Daily Range for EU has gotten smaller over the past few months and is currently about 80 pips per day. As a result, I have reduced my opening TP from 50 pips to 40 pips per trade. I also took a couple of H1 scalp trades during the Asian session with 20 pip targets. Those trades I monitor closely and exit on pullbacks. Overall, a good trading week even though I overtraded a bit and did not limit myself to A+++ setups. In the long term, that can result in losses. Next week I need to trade according to...

Good advice of course. and good luck..


can i ask what your trade plan is?

have you a forum page of it?


this 2-3 hr out of london opening = peak event , is interesting.
my aim is only to trade the mornign break, so i'm interested.
i'd love more information on the london + 2 hr theory where do i look.


thanks in advance.
afos.

ta/ afos.
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
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