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AUD/USD

  • #57,041
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:41am Dec 6, 2012 12:41am
Quoting jplazard
Daedge

I agree 100% some of the best analyst would not survive as traders simply because you work on a main thesis for so long and it plays out slower or the swings in the charts makes them uneasy. This happened to me when I first started then I finally looked and studied ABC reversals. This year for me on AUD has been a failure for sure as I expected the price to gradually go down in light of the mining numbers and job cuts but I failed to realize the one main thing in Trade Flows/Investment flows that they are not overnight and take months...
I'm looking for a short as well on the A$ for the same reasons but not till 1.0800 to 1.1000. Depending on if it gets to 1.0800 & how it behaves up there & what policatical headwinds are hitting the wire I might wait till the latter before pulling the trigger. I trade longer term & range from up there gives an amazing RR where I see it worth holding the trade & paying the swap for the ride down. Look at how clean those moves down are off that range.


http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...psd9a8b291.jpg
It works till it doesn't
  • #57,042
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:04am Dec 6, 2012 1:04am
Quoting DaEdge
This is actually a great question. From what I've seen working on prop desks the answer is generally no. Most analysts over think things way to much & can easily talk themselves out of good trades they are way to smart for there own good. Also they are always way to biased & can't deal with the ebb & flows of the markets. Traders need to see both sides of the market & need to be able to react accordingly. I have seen specialists from the exchanges try to make move over to traders & they too weren't able to transition because of how they were taught...
I've found money management the easiest, still to perfect or significantly improve my system and to some degree managing my emotions. I believe improving my system is in part due to adapting to different condtions (trending vs ranging market)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,043
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:07am Dec 6, 2012 1:07am
There is my forecast for today:
BUY
If the price breaks through the level 1.04828 bullish movement will start. Targets of the bullish movement: 1.05575, 1.06201.
SELL
If the price breaks through the level 1.04593 bearish movement will start. Targets of the bearish movement: 1.04370, 1.03760.
  • #57,044
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:08am Dec 6, 2012 1:08am
Quoting DaEdge
I'm looking for a short as well on the A$ for the same reasons but not till 1.0800 to 1.1000. Depending on if it gets to 1.0800 & how it behaves up there & what policatical headwinds are hitting the wire I might wait till the latter before pulling the trigger. I trade longer term & range from up there gives an amazing RR where I see it worth holding the trade & paying the swap for the ride down. Look at how clean those moves down are off that range.


http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...psd9a8b291.jpg...
Nice chart & points but given that price hasn't been there for 9 months and current RBA stance I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it to get back up there. I'm more than happy having some shorts for long term and other longs & shorts for trading the ranges with the goal of at least paying my swaps but preferrably making increasing profits from the ranging with bigger payoff when price drops.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,045
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:11am Dec 6, 2012 1:11am
Quoting dab
I've found money management the easiest, still to perfect or significantly improve my system and to some degree managing my emotions. I believe improving my system is in part due to adapting to different condtions (trending vs ranging market)
IMO you definitely have 1 of the hardest parts out of the way. Way to many traders see the perfect set up & bet the house on it only to find out its not always the perfect setup that works or they over leverage themselves & get in to early on the trade. One thing to always keep in mind is that your always going to have to adjust your system to the current conditions the markets are constantly changing and as traders we need to be aware & ready to adapt to the environment were in.
It works till it doesn't
  • #57,046
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:14am Dec 6, 2012 1:14am
Quoting candle779
There is my forecast for today:
BUY
If the price breaks through the level 1.04828 bullish movement will start. Targets of the bullish movement: 1.05575, 1.06201.
SELL
If the price breaks through the level 1.04593 bearish movement will start. Targets of the bearish movement: 1.04370, 1.03760.
Why do have that number?Put chart with analisys, please.
  • #57,047
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:48am Dec 6, 2012 1:48am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Why do have that number?Put chart with analisys, please.
Does anyone know about the relative volume of this market, say over the last six months? Or absolute volume for that matter?
Perhaps Santa will bring me one, with a 21 dma as well
I ask because the employment # came out this morning on the other side of expectation, the market moved quickly, but I personally believe that is it. Some fund managers felt a bit of pain this morning, but the fundamentals that rule this market are unaltered, and it's not domestics or interest-rate projections for the time being...
  • #57,048
  • Dec 6, 2012 3:16am Dec 6, 2012 3:16am
Have actually got a sell here @ 1.0479, with a stop above the top band 30 bollinger 2 SD. But then again, I'm known to be a bit of a $%#@.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #57,049
  • Dec 6, 2012 4:32am Dec 6, 2012 4:32am
so far looks like a rejection from the 11.27 high 1.04889 if NY fails to take this resistance out and on daily we close below this figure the RR for a short looks nice.

Just cut some of my A/J long at put a tester in on AU at 1.0485 lets see what happens. Tight stop of course in case the big breakout occurs
  • #57,050
  • Dec 6, 2012 5:54am Dec 6, 2012 5:54am
Hey there guys. Some aussie lines in the sand. Possible triangle formation there in action now. The 1.500 level and stuff. The only trade I would get in here: long on a pullback to the daily open area with a range template. By the way: do you have a gap at ~1,0444-1,0462 area?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #57,051
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:05am Dec 6, 2012 6:05am
hmmmm H4 ??
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  • #57,052
  • Dec 6, 2012 6:08am Dec 6, 2012 6:08am
Still waiting on 1.06~

Still waiting.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #57,053
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:34am Dec 6, 2012 7:34am
the holder is really defending that 105 option. Trade balance is tonight which should highlight the continued deceleration taking place
  • #57,054
  • Dec 6, 2012 8:19am Dec 6, 2012 8:19am
increased short at 1.0496 and have one waiting at 1.0513 position trade to 1.0380-60 engaged !! lol

a.j still on long just in case
  • #57,055
  • Dec 6, 2012 8:49am Dec 6, 2012 8:49am
Dollar Index made a successful test on a YTD fib this week if this continues look for a reversal on AUD coming. I wont predict nothing major for AUD/USD as they have been so spectacular in the past Im happy to take 20=30 here and there for now
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-12-06-TOS_CHARTS.jpg2.jpg Size: 227 KB
  • #57,056
  • Edited 2:18pm Dec 6, 2012 9:53am | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting dab
Nice chart & points but given that price hasn't been there for 9 months and current RBA stance I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it to get back up there. I'm more than happy having some shorts for long term and other longs & shorts for trading the ranges with the goal of at least paying my swaps but preferrably making increasing profits from the ranging with bigger payoff when price drops.
It's all a matter of what fits into your trading style & trading plan as of now this is mine that doesn't mean it won't change as the days pass. I'm just hesitant to short this pair with out the fiscal cliff nonsense out of way. We are also going into a very slow part of the year where liquidity dries up quickly and pairs tend to float upward, I really don't see to many major players looking to establish huge shorts at this time of the year when many have already closed there books for the year. I see it very realistic to reach the area I'm interested in by the next RBA rate decision in early February, which is fine I have more than enough exposure in my long yen crosses while I wait for my price. We just took out 1.0500 the next level to watch is 1.0625 a solid daily close above there will open up the level I'm looking for to short.
It works till it doesn't
  • #57,057
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:54am Dec 6, 2012 11:54am
A sweet move down in aussie here, nice rejection from the 1.05 level, the Daily tendline is holding strong. Still looking for below 1.04 by tomorrow.
  • #57,058
  • Dec 6, 2012 4:09pm Dec 6, 2012 4:09pm
Sweet my old sell limit @ 105150 got the top to the point lol. I only targeted 1.048 so nice 35 pips.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354126466
  • #57,059
  • Edited 5:58pm Dec 6, 2012 5:10pm | Edited 5:58pm
Our AUD/USD levels triggered, here is a link to the first post.

Our original posts on the AUD/USD long analysis are attached. Here's is an updated picture with the original levels still in place:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...12-06_1809.png

1.0453 - (Bids) DPV and 4H 9EMA
1.0440 - (Bids) WPV and Daily 9EMA TRIGGERED
1.05-1.0516 - (Offers) DR1 and MR1 TRIGGERED

Please read our execution rules: All trade results shown are based on our lowest bid zone triggered, to our highest offer zone triggered (longs), or vice versa from our highest offer zone triggered, to our lowest bid zone triggered (shorts). This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise. All bid levels are valid stop loss levels (longs), and all offer levels are valid stop loss levels (shorts), and will only be stopped out if there is a 15 minute Heikin Ashi Candlestick close into the said level. All take profit and entry levels are allowed -5/+5 price interest point flexibility due to discrepancies between platforms, spreads, and other market inefficiencies. Trades go break even at the first offer zone when going long, and trades go break even at the first bid zone when going short. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise. A break even trade also won't trigger unless there is a 15 minute Hiekin Ashi Candlestick close into the said level. If you have any questions about these rules, please post them in the forum. They will be answered.

Total: + 76 pips

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Quoting Fxfuse
Our mentioned bid zones held in place and our stance remains the same on the AUD/USD until we are proven otherwise.

Here is a chart of how the market responded to yesterdays levels today:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...12-05_1646.png

#FXFUSE
  • #57,060
  • Dec 6, 2012 5:26pm Dec 6, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting Fxfuse
Our AUD/USD levels triggered, here is a link to the first post.

Our original posts on the AUD/USD long analysis are attached. Here's is an updated picture with the original levels still in place:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...12-06_1809.png

1.0453 - (Bids) DPV and 4H 9EMA
1.0440 - (Bids) WPV and Daily 9EMA TRIGGERED
1.05-1.0516 - (Offers) DR1 and MR1 TRIGGERED

Please...
You can post your analysis without posting disclaimers, unless you are trying to promote something here...like your business "Fx Fuse"
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