That's a pretty good number no? Remember full time jobs went up last month too. Overall unemployment % down. Ditto with most other numbers around the world. Things are looking up for global economy imo.
Like i mentioned a couple weeks back Dec numbers should not be counted on for a long time trend this is holiday hiring even full time numbers go down in January ALWAYS. Unemployment will rise a bit in JANUARY FACT!
I wont just make a statement let me show you guys a simple breakdown of the actual facts BRB
Right i understand short term traders or scalpers can disregard but the macro position and hedgies all know this is not a number to look at seriously its like looking at retail sales in December not reliable for the overall trend
Like i mentioned a couple weeks back Dec numbers should not be counted on for a long time trend this is holiday hiring even full time numbers go down in January ALWAYS. Unemployment will rise a bit in JANUARY FACT!
I wont just make a statement let me show you guys a simple breakdown of the actual facts BRB
This is not a green shoot for AU jobs
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its true that Jan numbers go down,
but compare it with Nov, it is up.
Right i understand short term traders or scalpers can disregard but the macro position and hedgies all know this is not a number to look at seriously its like looking at retail sales in December not reliable for the overall trend
here it is
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Thanks JP! Will have to file this away for future reference, noting that December & Sept have always shown increases, July almost always, whilst Jan always down and August most of the time. (All my references to the Australia total not individual states). I'm guessing these aren't the seasonally adjusted figures that we often get presented and which can dominate the headlines.
right november increase starts and December is even higher but in January and Feb more norm comes back in.
No problem I have a full excel sheet breaking down M/F State full time, Part time ect which is several sheets in an excel workbook I will post it later tonight when I get home it is great for seasonal trading on jobs expectations
Right i understand short term traders or scalpers can disregard but the macro position and hedgies all know this is not a number to look at seriously its like looking at retail sales in December not reliable for the overall trend
here it is
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Interesting data but not really tradable since its +/- in regards to expectations. Aka no point if its already priced in.
+/- expectations
Jan 19, 2012 0.8 -29.3K 10.2K -7.5K worst
Dec 8, 2011 0.8 -6.3K 10.3K 16.8K worst
Jan 13, 2011 1.0 2.3K 25.2K 54.6K worst
Dec 9, 2010 1.4 54.6K 21.3K 36.9K better
Jan 14, 2010 1.4 35.2K 10.2K 31.4K better
Dec 10, 2009 1.9 31.2K 5.3K 27.2K better
Jan 15, 2009 2.1 -1.2K -21.0K -16.2K better
Dec 11, 2008 1.2 -15.6K -15.0K 36.5K worst
Jan 17, 2008 1.0 20.1K 20.0K 47.6K better
Dec 13, 2007 0.9 52.6K 20.0K 12.9K better
3 Jan/Dec results vs expectations same
1 Jan results vs expectations worst
1 Jan results vs expectations better
So around 50/50 chance to profit If you were to sell in Jan and buy in December. Not exactly what I would call "always".
Interesting data but not really tradable since its +/- in regards to expectations. Aka no point if its already priced in.
+/- expectations
Jan 19, 2012 0.8 -29.3K 10.2K -7.5K worst
Dec 8, 2011 0.8 -6.3K 10.3K 16.8K worst
Jan 13, 2011 1.0 2.3K 25.2K 54.6K worst
Dec 9, 2010 1.4 54.6K 21.3K 36.9K better
Jan 14, 2010 1.4 35.2K 10.2K 31.4K better
Dec 10, 2009 1.9 31.2K 5.3K 27.2K better
Jan 15, 2009 2.1 -1.2K -21.0K -16.2K better
Dec 11, 2008 1.2 -15.6K -15.0K 36.5K worst
Jan 17, 2008 1.0 20.1K 20.0K 47.6K better
Dec 13, 2007 0.9 52.6K 20.0K...
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Not sure I follow where you got all your figures from?? FF were showing forecast of adding 200 jobs so when from 34 years of JP's data the lowest December add was 10,000 jobs I'd say it's a far better chance than 50/50 that this month's data would exceed forecast.....
Edit: Part about not being sure where your figures stands but other part doesn't as I was thinking of December when it was November jobs (my bad)
QUICK REACTION: australian labour force, november2012
Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November from 5.4% in October, in contrast with expectations for a rise (mkt and ANZ: 5.5%).The unemployment rate has been quite volatile on a monthly basis and was unchanged in trend terms at 5.3% in November.
While the rise in the unemployment rate in November was partly due to another drop in participation (to 65.1% from 65.2%),the main driver was an upward surprise for employment which increased by +13.9Kin November (mkt and ANZ: 0.0K). Employment has now recorded an average gain of +13.6K in the past three months, although trend employment growth remains softer at 5.8K per month.
In November, part-time employment rose 18.1K, partly reversing falls in the previous three months. Full-time employment dropped by 4.2K, following strong increases in the previous two months. The employment-to-population ratio was unchanged in the month.
Revisions owing to the re-benchmarking of labour force data to incorporate updated and more accurate population estimateshad little impact on the key ratios including the unemployment rate and the employment-to-population ratio. However they have altered both the growth rate and level of employment (please see charts below). Most noteably, annual employment growth through much of 2012 has been revised up by around 0.3 to 0.4ppt. In contrast, employment growth was revised down by 0.5ppt in 2010 as a whole and revised up by 0.4ppt in 2011 as a whole.
Across the states, the biggest driver in the month was a 28K gain in Qld employment, while employment fell 18K in NSW and 13.8K in Victoria. We would caution into reading too much into these figures however as they are very volatile on a monthly basis. In trend terms, employment growth per month has been only slightly positive or slightly negative for all major states although is slightly stronger in WA where it is averaging +3K per month.
TodayR17;s stronger-than-expected labour force data are at odds with the downward trend in more timely indicators of labour demand such as job advertisements (see below for write up on Seek internet job advertisements for November). At this stage and given the volatility in monthly labour force figures, they do not appear at odds with RBA projections for the unemployment rate to edge up. We will receive another update on the labour market prior to the RBA’s next meeting in February.At the margin however, today’s figures should give the RBA more space to assess whether the 125bp of cuts through 2012 are starting to stimulate economic activity. That said, with little evidence that key areas of demand are picking up to fill the expected growth hole when mining investment peaks in mid-to-late 2013, the RBA will retain an easing bias into next year and every meeting remains live.
If debating and analyzing economic data can help a trader let the winners run and cut the losers short, I suppose it holds value. I've yet to see anyone who can quantify economic data and turn it into trading scripts. Macro funds are a different story. If you buy with a 300 pip stop loss and look for a couple thousand pips, then I will hear that side of the argument.
Not sure I follow where you got all your figures from?? FF were showing forecast of adding 200 jobs so when from 34 years of JP's data the lowest December add was 10,000 jobs I'd say it's a far better chance than 50/50 that this month's data would exceed forecast.....
Edit: Part about not being sure where your figures stands but other part doesn't as I was thinking of December when it was November jobs (my bad)
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I just copied and pasted from the the forexfactory calender. The thing is he may be right but if everyone is already expecting that then its already priced in you see.
Can a top notch analyst be a successful trader at the same time?
What makes a successful trader? Analyzing everything that at the end has nothing to do with exchange rate or might have but will take 1 - 10 years to see the effects. Do you place a position against the trend and willing to pay the negative swap in the waiting period? Guess it depends on the leverage used. Does this fall into the category of a long term trader?
I just copied and pasted from the the forexfactory calender. The thing is he may be right but if everyone is already expecting that then its already priced in you see.
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Had another look and can see where your data came from but haven't seen a link between some of the FF data and ABS data. I guess it depends whether the forecast is based purely on ABS data or takes into consideration other factors. Using the ABS data can help us assess the accuracy of the forecast and thus in some instances give better than 50% chance of anticipating the actual.
Can a top notch analyst be a successful trader at the same time?
What makes a successful trader? Analyzing everything that at the end has nothing to do with exchange rate or might have but will take 1 - 10 years to see the effects. Do you place a position against the trend and willing to pay the negative swap in the waiting period? Guess it depends on the leverage used. Does this fall into the category of a long term trader?
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I would have thought a top notch analyst would need to factor in the time component to be top notch. Time component would be about understanding cause & effect and when it will effect. If it can be reasonably assumed to be instant effect than suitable for scalping. If unsure of when the effect will eventuate than would need to take longer term position, factoring in swap. If really unsure of the timing than might mean they only take positions where swap is in their favour.
Being the world's greatest analyst would not in itself make a successful trader. They still need money management etc
Can a top notch analyst be a successful trader at the same time?
What makes a successful trader? Analyzing everything that at the end has nothing to do with exchange rate or might have but will take 1 - 10 years to see the effects. Do you place a position against the trend and willing to pay the negative swap in the waiting period? Guess it depends on the leverage used. Does this fall into the category of a long term trader?
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This is actually a great question. From what I've seen working on prop desks the answer is generally no. Most analysts over think things way to much & can easily talk themselves out of good trades they are way to smart for there own good. Also they are always way to biased & can't deal with the ebb & flows of the markets. Traders need to see both sides of the market & need to be able to react accordingly. I have seen specialists from the exchanges try to make move over to traders & they too weren't able to transition because of how they were taught to think. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to trade successfully all you need is a simple system with sound money mgmt & self control over yourself & your emotions. The system is the easy part it's the last 2 that take years to learn.
I agree 100% some of the best analyst would not survive as traders simply because you work on a main thesis for so long and it plays out slower or the swings in the charts makes them uneasy. This happened to me when I first started then I finally looked and studied ABC reversals. This year for me on AUD has been a failure for sure as I expected the price to gradually go down in light of the mining numbers and job cuts but I failed to realize the one main thing in Trade Flows/Investment flows that they are not overnight and take months sometimes years for a complete reversal.
News traders could possibly trade off of historical data expecting a decrease in numbers of jobs or increase getting in say a day or two before so that will give them some room for a stop loss at BE. But I agree hedgies and macro guys like fx concepts have alot more information and wiggle room to survive the moves before the trend takes hold
