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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,661
  • Dec 5, 2012 8:28am Dec 5, 2012 8:28am
Quoting shahab8b
I have to say that was a bad entry.You went short on a support.
As I mentioned before, I am more bullish on JPY crosses than bearish. I took a long before the bullish pennant broke to the upside. Unfortunately, it didn't give me the move I wanted, but I am still holding it with a pretty tight SL.
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  • #5,662
  • Dec 5, 2012 8:30am Dec 5, 2012 8:30am
Quoting Forexgogo
You are absolutely right. I got out -15 -- shoulda known it
It's OK. Draw your S/R before you take any trades; that will help to not repeat this mistake.
  • #5,663
  • Dec 5, 2012 8:40am Dec 5, 2012 8:40am
Quoting shahab8b
As I mentioned before, I am more bullish on JPY crosses than bearish. I took a long before the bullish pennant broke to the upside. Unfortunately, it didn't give me the move I wanted, but I am still holding it with a pretty tight SL.
I agree. Like I said a couple of posts before, I'm looking at 85.00 UJ. EJ may go up to 111.00 or higher. I'm basing on weekly charts -- pretty bullish.
  • #5,664
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:20pm Dec 5, 2012 1:20pm
Hi Shahab,
I am playing short on EJ. Last week, I took 3 shorts and hit my SL on BE after dropping. I am taking one more shot before I go long on break of 1.08. My entry is 107.73 that got hit this morning.
Also I am not that confident taking a long on AU yet. I was short before the news and closed with 50 pips ahead. I am looking at short entry based on fundamentals ( around 1.05). Living here in Australia, i can see the damage of higher dollar. Also reading the RBA statement, its clear that higher rates are not desired by the govt. either. As I mentioned earlier, last budget was based on the dollar value of 1.03, anything over is hurting.
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  • #5,665
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:24pm Dec 5, 2012 1:24pm
shahab8b and tradoholic

What you take on AU? Do you think a range between 1.06 and 1.02 tradable (top and bottom yellow lines)?
My take is, the wedge/triangle breaks upward and the price reaches 1.06. Then, turn around downward.

Thank you in advance!
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  • #5,666
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:31pm Dec 5, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting Forexgogo
shahab8b and tradoholic

What you take on AU? Do you think a range between 1.06 and 1.02 tradable (top and bottom yellow lines)?
My take is, the wedge/triangle breaks upward and the price reaches 1.06. Then, turn around downward.

Thank you in advance!
Hi Forex,
As I mentioned, I am looking at it purely on fundamentals and not technical. I cannot see sustainability of higher AU.
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  • #5,667
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:37pm Dec 5, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Forex,
As I mentioned, I am looking at it purely on fundamentals and not technical. I cannot see sustainability of higher AU.
Thank you very much for your input (I read your previous post, too). We will see if AU breaks 1.05 in this week, or not. That tells us the direction AU heads for.
  • #5,668
  • Edited 10:33pm Dec 5, 2012 9:36pm | Edited 10:33pm
Hi, Shahab

Been following your thread for a few weeks.
What's your opinion on long GU around 6050, I see this level has several confluences:
- Previous key resistance
- Between fib 50-62
- Psychological level xx50
- (possibly) trendline bounce
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  • #5,669
  • Dec 6, 2012 9:47am Dec 6, 2012 9:47am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Shahab,
I am playing short on EJ. Last week, I took 3 shorts and hit my SL on BE after dropping. I am taking one more shot before I go long on break of 1.08. My entry is 107.73 that got hit this morning.
Also I am not that confident taking a long on AU yet. I was short before the news and closed with 50 pips ahead. I am looking at short entry based on fundamentals ( around 1.05). Living here in Australia, i can see the damage of higher dollar. Also reading the RBA statement, its clear that higher rates are not desired by the govt. either. As...
EJ seems to have got a serious downward spin -- see a weekly chart. I missed the entry
Do you think I still have an entry point? a retracement? see 4H
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  • #5,670
  • Dec 6, 2012 2:21pm Dec 6, 2012 2:21pm
Quoting Forexgogo
EJ seems to have got a serious downward spin -- see a weekly chart. I missed the entry
Do you think I still have an entry point? a retracement? see 4H
I'm not sure if EJ is really turning the trend. I can still draw UTL, while I see a divergence on 4H as well as daily....
Probably I should stay away from EJ for a while....
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  • #5,671
  • Dec 6, 2012 5:12pm Dec 6, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting Forexgogo
I'm not sure if EJ is really turning the trend. I can still draw UTL, while I see a divergence on 4H as well as daily....
Probably I should stay away from EJ for a while....
Hi Forex,
EJ hit my target of 106.60, My thoughts are that it would re-touch the 107.5 FE level before dropping again. I have a pending sell limit at this stage but will monitor triggers when it gets there.
My short limit order on AU was also hit last night and got me 50 pips till support line. Staying away from shorting AU till Monday at this stage.
Currently long on GU.
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  • #5,672
  • Dec 7, 2012 5:52am Dec 7, 2012 5:52am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Shahab,
I am playing short on EJ. Last week, I took 3 shorts and hit my SL on BE after dropping. I am taking one more shot before I go long on break of 1.08. My entry is 107.73 that got hit this morning.
Also I am not that confident taking a long on AU yet. I was short before the news and closed with 50 pips ahead. I am looking at short entry based on fundamentals ( around 1.05). Living here in Australia, i can see the damage of higher dollar. Also reading the RBA statement, its clear that higher rates are not desired by the govt. either. As...
Hi Tradoholic,
Nice going on EJ. I am a bit skeptical if it continues to fall further, let's see how it plays. As for AU, I'm more bullish technically, for now holding longs.
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  • #5,673
  • Dec 7, 2012 5:56am Dec 7, 2012 5:56am
UJ: moved TP up to 84
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  • #5,674
  • Dec 7, 2012 5:57am Dec 7, 2012 5:57am
Quoting Forexgogo
shahab8b and tradoholic

What you take on AU? Do you think a range between 1.06 and 1.02 tradable (top and bottom yellow lines)?
My take is, the wedge/triangle breaks upward and the price reaches 1.06. Then, turn around downward.

Thank you in advance!
I'm still playing it long. but it seems you can play both sides.
  • #5,675
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:03am Dec 7, 2012 6:03am
Quoting coo.za
Hi, Shahab

Been following your thread for a few weeks.
What's your opinion on long GU around 6050, I see this level has several confluences:
- Previous key resistance
- Between fib 50-62
- Psychological level xx50
- (possibly) trendline bounce
Hi ,I was looking at the same level, then I saw the LTL broke and dropped the long idea.
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  • #5,676
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:24am Dec 7, 2012 6:24am
Quoting Forexgogo
I'm not sure if EJ is really turning the trend. I can still draw UTL, while I see a divergence on 4H as well as daily....
Probably I should stay away from EJ for a while....

I am not taking any positions on EJ for now. The reason is that UJ is uptrend and EU is down/mixed. I prefer playing crosses when they give you a better play.Yo can look at the currency heat map to identify the best crosses to play:
http://www.actionforex.com/markets/d...2009031181561/
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  • #5,677
  • Dec 7, 2012 7:05am Dec 7, 2012 7:05am
Quoting shahab8b
I am not taking any positions on EJ for now. The reason is that UJ is uptrend and EU is down/mixed. I prefer playing crosses when they give you a better play.Yo can look at the currency heat map to identify the best crosses to play:
http://www.actionforex.com/markets/d...2009031181561/
Thank you for the nice link! have a great weekend!
  • #5,678
  • Dec 7, 2012 7:48am Dec 7, 2012 7:48am
Quoting shahab8b
UJ: moved TP up to 84
I'm going the other way
SL=bar top TP=80.00 (tentative)

Fib 76
triple top
divergence
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  • #5,679
  • Dec 7, 2012 9:33am Dec 7, 2012 9:33am
Hi guys, is there still some COT trading going on in here?
  • #5,680
  • Dec 7, 2012 12:01pm Dec 7, 2012 12:01pm
Hi Shahab,
Thanks for the posts.
Closed all positions except my long on GU that is not just 3 pips in black after missing my SL by 6 pips last night but am thinking of getting out of it as its showing signs of forming h&S on daily eyeing 1.58XX.
as for EJ I am sitting on side line.
My bank manager here in Australia told me that there is a talk of .5% interest rate drop amongst the top management in feb ( in time for election campaign). So there could be a buy on rumour scenario till feb, currently holding no position, but will see if the UTL on daily from 27 july 2011 holds, then will enter shorts again.
NZU looks interesting atm, missed out my short entry on what would have been a triple top by 4 pip, dropped 50 and recovered again. Will re-consider Monday.good luck
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