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AUD/USD

  • #57,001
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:11am Dec 5, 2012 4:11am
RBA's Lowe: Australian Dollar Is Uncomfortably High
  • #57,002
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:13am Dec 5, 2012 4:13am
Quoting jplazard
RBA's Lowe: Australian Dollar Is Uncomfortably High
JP,
there is nothing RBA can do..
we have to learn to face it.
  • #57,003
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:14am Dec 5, 2012 4:14am
Quoting HelloOz
JP,
there is nothing RBA can do..
we have to learn to face it.
tbh, even with aud at parity, ausie retail (and economy) will be as bad

edit: i dont know why i said retail, when in fact weaker aud should make all import goods more expensive..
  • #57,004
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:54am Dec 5, 2012 4:54am
Quoting HelloOz
tbh, even with aud at parity, ausie retail (and economy) will be as bad

edit: i dont know why i said retail, when in fact weaker aud should make all import goods more expensive..

assume aud at 50c and prices/salaries the same. What will change ?

imported goods much more expensive. As domestic industry gone/never existed, there will be no choice but buy foreign.
property will not get much break from foreign investors. Look at prices in US. Why would anyone buy in AU if it can much cheaper in US where everything is similar. Not many seem to be buying there anyway.
Only will benefit resource firms as they will get more AUD for shipped raw materials. However, one can have higher AUD lower share price or lower AUD and higher share price. Overall effect is not that much different.

To suddenly start manufacturing will not work. One requires know-how to be sucessfull, which has gone.

Where is the benefit of dropping AUD large ? If AU was manufacturing then it is different story but this has never been the case.
  • #57,005
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:59am Dec 5, 2012 4:59am
Quoting macroman
assume aud at 50c and prices/salaries the same. What will change ?

imported goods much more expensive. As domestic industry gone/never existed, there will be no choice but buy foreign. Agree

property will not get much break from foreign investors. Look at prices in US. Why would anyone buy in AU if it can much cheaper in US where everything is similar. Not many seem to be buying there anyway. Property in AU will be cheaper than US ...

Only will benefit resource firms as they will get more AUD for shipped...
and resource firms will get lesser AUD ...
  • #57,006
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:20am Dec 5, 2012 5:20am
Quoting HelloOz
and resource firms will get lesser AUD ...
actually you are right on this, resource firm get more aud with weaker aud.
  • #57,007
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:25am Dec 5, 2012 5:25am
Quoting macroman
assume aud at 50c and prices/salaries the same. What will change ?

imported goods much more expensive. As domestic industry gone/never existed, there will be no choice but buy foreign.
property will not get much break from foreign investors. Look at prices in US. Why would anyone buy in AU if it can much cheaper in US where everything is similar. Not many seem to be buying there anyway.
Only will benefit resource firms as they will get more AUD for shipped raw materials. However, one can have higher AUD lower share price or lower AUD and...
If AUD at 50c wouldn't make a change than why do those in charge at the RBA care about the exchange rate? Even if there was no manufacturing the exchange rate would make a difference to tourism (more come from overseas & fewer Aussies travel overseas). Fact is there is still manufacturing (I work in the industry) and to say Australia lacks the know-how is way off the mark. I at least agree that imported goods will be more expensive but there would be choice. In some sectors it would be very limited or non-existant but anything with low start up costs would respond first. Maybe read up on price elasticity.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,008
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:39am Dec 5, 2012 10:39am
Finally, this thread works
  • #57,009
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:44pm Dec 5, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting dab
If AUD at 50c wouldn't make a change than why do those in charge at the RBA care about the exchange rate? Even if there was no manufacturing the exchange rate would make a difference to tourism (more come from overseas & fewer Aussies travel overseas). Fact is there is still manufacturing (I work in the industry) and to say Australia lacks the know-how is way off the mark. I at least agree that imported goods will be more expensive but there would be choice. In some sectors it would be very limited or non-existant but anything with low start up...
In the end its all nonsense bottom line it's the speculators, big banks & hedge funds that are controlling the price & making it move the way it is so it really doesn't matter what we think is right or wrong or how believe things should be. Just look at oil the price is so out sync with reality it insane but as long as the speculators want it that way & they can profit from it they will keep controlling its moves.
It works till it doesn't
  • #57,010
  • Dec 5, 2012 2:33pm Dec 5, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting dab
If AUD at 50c wouldn't make a change than why do those in charge at the RBA care about the exchange rate? Even if there was no manufacturing the exchange rate would make a difference to tourism (more come from overseas & fewer Aussies travel overseas). Fact is there is still manufacturing (I work in the industry) and to say Australia lacks the know-how is way off the mark. I at least agree that imported goods will be more expensive but there would be choice. In some sectors it would be very limited or non-existant but anything with low start up...

Sure there is manufacturing in AU. However looking from macro level % is much less than in other countries, so it is insignificant. Know - how to start new production, maybe few industries, but in general, nope. AU has no brand name known globally. This is sign of no manufacturing.

Too much money goes into supporting property prices. Misinvestment which will backfire at some point.
  • #57,011
  • Dec 5, 2012 2:37pm Dec 5, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting macroman
Sure there is manufacturing in AU. However looking from macro level % is much less than in other countries, so it is insignificant. Know - how to start new production, maybe few industries, but in general, nope. AU has no brand name known globally. This is sign of no manufacturing.

Too much money goes into supporting property prices. Misinvestment which will backfire at some point.
Lol..
Arnotts, cadbury, toyota, holden
Onesteel now known as arrium
  • #57,012
  • Edited 3:00pm Dec 5, 2012 2:49pm | Edited 3:00pm
arnotts sold to us, cadburry uk firm, toyota japanese, holden german

what i mean when i say brand is like Lindt for switzerland, bmw for germany, jeans for US, nokia finland, stuff like that.

I believe there was one true AU brand 'speedo' for swimsuits that was sold to US.

To say rates are too high, hhahahaa. See japanese. They adjusted JPY appreciating to US from 320 to under 80. Same with CHF. They have disproportionately larger number of brands.

lots of BS floating around.
  • #57,013
  • Dec 5, 2012 3:48pm Dec 5, 2012 3:48pm
Our mentioned bid zones held in place and our stance remains the same on the AUD/USD until we are proven otherwise.

Here is a chart of how the market responded to yesterdays levels today:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...12-05_1646.png

#FXFUSE

Quoting Fxfuse
Agreed, most of my indicators are pointing for a move to the upside.

1.0453 - (Bids) DPV and 4H 9EMA
1.0440 - (Bids) WPV and Daily 9EMA
1.05-1.0516 - (Offers) DR1 and MR1


All of the below measured in respect to the 1H 9EMA ("Where is the 1H 9EMA in respect to X indicator")

DPV - Above
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above

I've attached a picture below of the key support levels. With RBA on the horizon, anything can happen, but price indicates higher unless that zone is taken out.

#FXFUSE
  • #57,014
  • Edited 4:14pm Dec 5, 2012 3:57pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting macroman
arnotts sold to us, cadburry uk firm, toyota japanese, holden german

what i mean when i say brand is like Lindt for switzerland, bmw for germany, jeans for US, nokia finland, stuff like that.

I believe there was one true AU brand 'speedo' for swimsuits that was sold to US.

To say rates are too high, hhahahaa. See japanese. They adjusted JPY appreciating to US from 320 to under 80. Same with CHF. They have disproportionately larger number of brands.

lots of BS floating around.
is that why the oz are so good at swimming?
  • #57,015
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:27pm Dec 5, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting macroman
arnotts sold to us, cadburry uk firm, toyota japanese, holden german

what i mean when i say brand is like Lindt for switzerland, bmw for germany, jeans for US, nokia finland, stuff like that.

I believe there was one true AU brand 'speedo' for swimsuits that was sold to US.

To say rates are too high, hhahahaa. See japanese. They adjusted JPY appreciating to US from 320 to under 80. Same with CHF. They have disproportionately larger number of brands.

lots of BS floating around.
Between you & HelloOz there are several manufacturing companies identified as good examples. To me it doesn't matter if they are true Aussie brands or not. What matters is relative exchange rate. As long as it stays relatively high more of these companies will decide to just manufacture overseas and export to Australia rather than have a base in country. Where they manufacture to meet Australian demand will impact the number of people who have jobs in Australia (both directly in manufacturing and in support industries). I'd suggest this is why the relativity of exchange rate matters to many, including RBA. Fewer jobs for Australians will mean weaker economy.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,016
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:44pm Dec 5, 2012 4:44pm
Boral plans suspension of clinker production at its
Waurn Ponds cement plant in Victoria

In the face of an increasingly competitive domestic and international landscape, Boral has been
conducting a review of its Australian cement operations to identify opportunities to improve its future
competitiveness.

Boral CEO and Managing Director, Mike Kane, said that the high Australian dollar and low shipping costs,
together with rising energy and other manufacturing costs, are all contributing to higher costs of domestic
clinker production relative to imported clinker and cement.

“A continued low level of demand associated with the downturn in Australian building and construction
activity is also adversely impacting the profitability of Boral’s cement business, where high fixed cost
manufacturing assets continue to be underutilised,” said Mr Kane.
  • #57,017
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:39pm Dec 5, 2012 6:39pm
wow, to those you are betting AUD economy is going down may want to check their thesis again..
  • #57,018
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:41pm Dec 5, 2012 6:41pm
OMG ,this one's a killer
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #57,019
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:44pm Dec 5, 2012 6:44pm
Full time jobs are DOWN 4200, Part time jobs up 18000. This is not good news.
  • #57,020
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:47pm Dec 5, 2012 6:47pm
Quoting mmccormac
Their employment data is coming out shortly so you have a 50/50 shot. lol
I win!

30 pips in the pouch.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
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