Here we go, let us see what we have:
look at the creepy overlapping movement since the 2661 low, especially since 3019
You can only see very little momentum and divergences are building. Every here and then the best wave 3's in Forex are made out of such movements.
I am not saying this is a developing wave 3, but we have to keep that in mind that the potential exists.
Well, let us reflect on the movement since the bottom @ 2042 - which possible counts may develop?
A) 1-2-3-4-5 (with now in wave 5)
implication: after the completion of wave 5 we have either a wave 1 or wave A completed.
Best target for the recent ongoing wave 5 may be in the 3243 to 3284 area, extended wave up to 3462 to even 3647
The following wave 2 or B retracement may end somewhere between 270 and 3070 (rough estimation)
B) w-x-y-xx-z move (now in wave Z) - and that within a bigger WXYXxZ-move (down) (starting from 4940 with Y ends at 2042)
well, in a triple zigzag wave Xx retraces normally around 50% of wave Y movement
in my view, see chart, this 50% retracement is @ 3144 (which was already achieved in September with the high @ 3171
so all what we need now is a close slightly above the 3171 to make the (smaller) wxyxz complete.
BUT: statistically, the mean Z-movement is around 1.2 times of wave Y
That would call for prices around 38x, which again is too high for the wave Xx of the bigger wave in my view
one more note to the wave Xx: this wave is in over 50% of the cases a flat corretion, 30% are zigzag. A double three or triple three are very seldom.
So in our small upsloping wxyxz we have a flat in wave Xx position. That is fine
But when we view our big WXYXxZ, we now assume to be in wave Xx to be a triple three. That is against the odds. So implication is:
the move from the low @ 2042 may evolve as zigzag or flat most likely. So the wave up is either the corrective wave A of a flat, or it is the impulsive wave A of a zigzag
Implication for a zigzag would be, that the wave C would be clearly above today prices, maybe somewhere above 38x
But that is against the odds for bigger WXYXxZ movement (Xx would retrace too high)
So most likely the recent upmove is to count corrective as triple-three in this scenario. This wave should end soon. After that a dep retracing wave B. The following wave C impulse should bring us back into the 3172 to 3462 area (3405 would mark a 61.8% retracement of wave Y)
So let us look at the recent up-move from the 2661 low:
on bigger TF like daily we can count impulsive structure, but the substructure on lower TF's reveals an oftentimes choppy and overlapping structure. That is most of the time a good case for an impulse within an corrective movement.
What we have clearly not is a kind of ending diagonal here.
Judging from structure and momentum we may be in the last waves of a wave 5 here (in case the whole movement from the low at 2042 is an impulse). This wave 5 may extend further to bring us above 3172
In case the movement from the 2042 low is a WXYXxZ, we have to obey, that a wave Z is in nearly 100% of the cases is a zigzag.
That would fit with the impression, that the move from the 2659 low is an impulse within a corrective structure (wave A of Z)
The following wave B of Z will retrace between 30-60% most likely, so far I go with 3010
The then following wave C may bring us back to the 3485 high maximum.
look at the creepy overlapping movement since the 2661 low, especially since 3019
You can only see very little momentum and divergences are building. Every here and then the best wave 3's in Forex are made out of such movements.
I am not saying this is a developing wave 3, but we have to keep that in mind that the potential exists.
Well, let us reflect on the movement since the bottom @ 2042 - which possible counts may develop?
A) 1-2-3-4-5 (with now in wave 5)
implication: after the completion of wave 5 we have either a wave 1 or wave A completed.
Best target for the recent ongoing wave 5 may be in the 3243 to 3284 area, extended wave up to 3462 to even 3647
The following wave 2 or B retracement may end somewhere between 270 and 3070 (rough estimation)
B) w-x-y-xx-z move (now in wave Z) - and that within a bigger WXYXxZ-move (down) (starting from 4940 with Y ends at 2042)
well, in a triple zigzag wave Xx retraces normally around 50% of wave Y movement
in my view, see chart, this 50% retracement is @ 3144 (which was already achieved in September with the high @ 3171
so all what we need now is a close slightly above the 3171 to make the (smaller) wxyxz complete.
BUT: statistically, the mean Z-movement is around 1.2 times of wave Y
That would call for prices around 38x, which again is too high for the wave Xx of the bigger wave in my view
one more note to the wave Xx: this wave is in over 50% of the cases a flat corretion, 30% are zigzag. A double three or triple three are very seldom.
So in our small upsloping wxyxz we have a flat in wave Xx position. That is fine
But when we view our big WXYXxZ, we now assume to be in wave Xx to be a triple three. That is against the odds. So implication is:
the move from the low @ 2042 may evolve as zigzag or flat most likely. So the wave up is either the corrective wave A of a flat, or it is the impulsive wave A of a zigzag
Implication for a zigzag would be, that the wave C would be clearly above today prices, maybe somewhere above 38x
But that is against the odds for bigger WXYXxZ movement (Xx would retrace too high)
So most likely the recent upmove is to count corrective as triple-three in this scenario. This wave should end soon. After that a dep retracing wave B. The following wave C impulse should bring us back into the 3172 to 3462 area (3405 would mark a 61.8% retracement of wave Y)
So let us look at the recent up-move from the 2661 low:
on bigger TF like daily we can count impulsive structure, but the substructure on lower TF's reveals an oftentimes choppy and overlapping structure. That is most of the time a good case for an impulse within an corrective movement.
What we have clearly not is a kind of ending diagonal here.
Judging from structure and momentum we may be in the last waves of a wave 5 here (in case the whole movement from the low at 2042 is an impulse). This wave 5 may extend further to bring us above 3172
In case the movement from the 2042 low is a WXYXxZ, we have to obey, that a wave Z is in nearly 100% of the cases is a zigzag.
That would fit with the impression, that the move from the 2659 low is an impulse within a corrective structure (wave A of Z)
The following wave B of Z will retrace between 30-60% most likely, so far I go with 3010
The then following wave C may bring us back to the 3485 high maximum.
