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AUD/USD

  • #56,981
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:24am Dec 4, 2012 6:24am
I was long on AUD/USD before RBA rate cut, though trend and forecast predicted the opposite. Closed @1.471. Now short on the same, but not sure how this will work out this time.
  • #56,982
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:11am Dec 4, 2012 8:11am
looking at the weekly, aud/usd looking at a resistance of 1.08. according to the daily we are at a resistance point now. lets see how this plays out...
  • #56,983
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:31am Dec 4, 2012 8:31am
[quote=ibram.forex;6258989]
Quoting Iro
Were you long before the announcement Ken?

I have to admire those big money players, that was the best fake out in aud/usd since June.[/QUOTE)

Down here we go.
Quoting Ken A
And your reason being? Or that's just random statement?
hahaha
  • #56,984
  • Dec 4, 2012 11:52am Dec 4, 2012 11:52am
Quoting 100PipsADay
To confirm what Ken just said, anybody who missed these articles should have a look...
But if its expectations for more qe why is gold been sold?
  • #56,985
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:20pm Dec 4, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting Iro
But if its expectations for more qe why is gold been sold?
It still hasn't even retraced to hit the Daily TL.

Probably looking to find fresh liquidity from new buyers. Not too sure though to be honest...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold - Daily.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #56,986
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:11pm Dec 4, 2012 2:11pm
major upswing in aud is a possibility with more chances than random walk theory would suggest.

There is some friction as it appears RBA does not like it. On the other side, free money from safe haven status comes handy. not necessary RBA will start anti AUD campaign as not everyone loses.
  • #56,987
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:47pm Dec 4, 2012 4:47pm
G'day pips' hunters,
... no retracement since RBA decision, however there is a clear topping price structure,
but too early for me to pull a trigger on short ... another 2-hours till GDP q/q numbers.
So, maybe then, if the outcome will show negativity. Just wait & see game for now ...
  • #56,988
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:27pm Dec 4, 2012 5:27pm
GDP day for Australia and this country has flat lined.

At least 6 Australian companies who have survived for over 100 years ( the big depression and 2 world wars ) have gone under. Surely they aren't all run by incompetents? There must be a common theme and I think I have found it. - Wayne Swan Australian Treasurer who was branded as the worlds greatest treasurer in 2011 by Europeans.. In Australia we call it a Bradbury ( the term stems from an Australian Olympic Ice skater Steven Bradbury who was coming last and won Gold as the rest of the competitors fell over).. A former RBA governor in around about way agrees

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politi...205-2au3j.html

The current stats don't reflect the economic conditions in Australia.Its worse. What the frustration that many are confronted with is that it aint any good elsewhere.
  • #56,989
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:31pm Dec 4, 2012 5:31pm
expecting shot up.. relative to eu and gu.. au has been under performing and needs to catch up to equilibrium... I expect it to lead the way sometime this month.
  • #56,990
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:39pm Dec 4, 2012 6:39pm
GDP 0.5 a tad below expectations.. but the economists keep forgetting one thing.. the government handed out Billions of dollars to Australians to offset CO2 tax and brought forward school allowances. . Imagine the GDP number with out it?

It aint good but as I said before looking around there isnt much else that does.
  • #56,991
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:40pm Dec 4, 2012 6:40pm
Quoting sidhujag
expecting shot up.. relative to eu and gu.. au has been under performing and needs to catch up to equilibrium... I expect it to lead the way sometime this month.
It works till it doesn't
  • #56,992
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:28pm Dec 4, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting lasty
GDP day for Australia and this country has flat lined.

At least 6 Australian companies who have survived for over 100 years ( the big depression and 2 world wars ) have gone under. Surely they aren't all run by incompetents? There must be a common theme and I think I have found it. - Wayne Swan Australian Treasurer who was branded as the worlds greatest treasurer in 2011 by Europeans.. In Australia we call it a Bradbury ( the term stems from an Australian Olympic Ice skater Steven Bradbury who was coming last and won Gold as the rest of the competitors...
Curious as to who the 6 are?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #56,993
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:33pm Dec 4, 2012 7:33pm
Agreed, most of my indicators are pointing for a move to the upside.

1.0453 - (Bids) DPV and 4H 9EMA
1.0440 - (Bids) WPV and Daily 9EMA
1.05-1.0516 - (Offers) DR1 and MR1


All of the below measured in respect to the 1H 9EMA ("Where is the 1H 9EMA in respect to X indicator")

DPV - Above
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above

I've attached a picture below of the key support levels. With RBA on the horizon, anything can happen, but price indicates higher unless that zone is taken out.

#FXFUSE

Quoting sidhujag
expecting shot up.. relative to eu and gu.. au has been under performing and needs to catch up to equilibrium... I expect it to lead the way sometime this month.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 13 KB
  • #56,994
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:18am Dec 5, 2012 1:18am
Quoting Iro
But if its expectations for more qe why is gold been sold?
Investors are pulling out in anticipation of taxes on the wealthy re US Fiscal Cliff.
  • #56,995
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:32am Dec 5, 2012 1:32am
just tested audusd with a single contract.

it feels sooo shallow. gone in mkt moved in my direction, gone out, price chopped off 2 pips before executed.

anyone else similar feel or it was just random?
  • #56,996
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:36am Dec 5, 2012 1:36am
Quoting macroman
just tested audusd with a single contract.

it feels sooo shallow. gone in mkt moved in my direction, gone out, price chopped off 2 pips before executed.

anyone else similar feel or it was just random?
Yep, I have the same.

Just open short positin and waiting for 1,044
  • #56,997
  • Dec 5, 2012 1:38am Dec 5, 2012 1:38am
Quoting Ken A
Investors are pulling out in anticipation of taxes on the wealthy re US Fiscal Cliff.
There was an article on forexlive that Paulsons clients are calling in for redemptions & he has to satisfy them & he has a huge gold position so basically he's being forced to liquidate.
It works till it doesn't
  • #56,998
  • Dec 5, 2012 2:42am Dec 5, 2012 2:42am
Quoting macroman
major upswing in aud is a possibility with more chances than random walk theory would suggest.

There is some friction as it appears RBA does not like it. On the other side, free money from safe haven status comes handy. not necessary RBA will start anti AUD campaign as not everyone loses.
I agree with your basic gist, but what makes you think the RBA conducts market operations so much? Depth and liquidity of all AUD loans is increasing but there are 'natural ceilings'. Do you not agree?
  • #56,999
  • Dec 5, 2012 2:58am Dec 5, 2012 2:58am
This thread is dead???
Or guys are underwater???, if so cut loss and wait for another right entry.

Gl
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #57,000
  • Dec 5, 2012 3:47am Dec 5, 2012 3:47am
Quoting DrDiscretion
I agree with your basic gist, but what makes you think the RBA conducts market operations so much? Depth and liquidity of all AUD loans is increasing but there are 'natural ceilings'. Do you not agree?
there are shades visible of RBA beeing uncomfortable with current exchange rate. My hypotesis is that whoever is buyer of bonds, in a way dictates RBA view.... Just hypotesis at this stage. So, they will not do anything to upset investor(s). Going from stone cruncher status to reserve currency is also uplifting, dont you think ? Worth recession or two even....
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