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  • #17,941
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:08pm Dec 4, 2012 8:08pm
I recall once upon a time being in a similar situation - negative news events would cause one currency to move higher, despite the negative info. At some point, I figured that banks were messing with my mind, so I would then mess with them by doing the opposite of my initial plan - so I started buying - and that's when that pair dropped like a rock^^
  • #17,942
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:08pm Dec 4, 2012 8:08pm
Quoting HelloOz
Bull trap?
yep
  • #17,943
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:38pm Dec 4, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting maximmm
I recall once upon a time being in a similar situation - negative news events would cause one currency to move higher, despite the negative info. At some point, I figured that banks were messing with my mind, so I would then mess with them by doing the opposite of my initial plan - so I started buying - and that's when that pair dropped like a rock^^
Psychological warfare.
  • #17,944
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:47pm Dec 4, 2012 8:47pm
This thing is about to tank...
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #17,945
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:55pm Dec 4, 2012 8:55pm
DB what does the cloud show?
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #17,946
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:58pm Dec 4, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting dbutton1990
This thing is about to tank...
I highly doubt it

1.0460 is possible, but that's about it for the ultra bears. The bullish flag will do its thing and a new high will be established prior to the big drop
  • #17,947
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:04pm Dec 4, 2012 9:04pm
It's either going to 1.0449(38.2), 1.0438(50.0), 1.0427(61.8), or 1.0411(78.6)...1.0460 will be taken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12-4-2012 9-03-01 PM.png Size: 34 KB
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #17,948
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:05pm Dec 4, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting DaddyBear
What indicators are you using?
Common home grown stuff, your stochastics, your rsi, your adx, some smoothing tools, MTF's , cycling tools, timing tools, momentum tools, you name it and i have to have it. Together as a package they tell me everything I need to know about trending, mixed markets to stay out of, scalping, swing trading, tops and bottoms. etc. Thanks for asking, sorry about my dry sence of humor, it does not show up in type.
  • #17,949
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:06pm Dec 4, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting maximmm
I highly doubt it

1.0460 is possible, but that's about it for the ultra bears. The bullish flag will do its thing and a new high will be established prior to the big drop
I'm thinking an even bigger drop - the US fiscal cliff - is probably a key factor in the minds of deep pockets that's keeping this pair in a relative state of suspension
I see Beasts. I drop my scalpel and beckon to theatre nurse: "Charts!&
RubiconFund Return Today: na
  • #17,950
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:08pm Dec 4, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting dbutton1990
DB what does the cloud show?
M15 Inside the Cloud.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-120412-M15.JPG Size: 46 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,951
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:08pm Dec 4, 2012 9:08pm
looks like everyone ran to the yen pairs tonight
  • #17,952
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:10pm Dec 4, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting kerrydrake
Common home grown stuff, your stochastics, your rsi, your adx, some smoothing tools, MTF's , cycling tools, timing tools, momentum tools, you name it and i have to have it. Together as a package they tell me everything I need to know about trending, mixed markets to stay out of, scalping, swing trading, tops and bottoms. etc. Thanks for asking, sorry about my dry sence of humor, it does not show up in type.
I was wondering why you got conflicting information from different TF.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,953
  • Edited 10:02pm Dec 4, 2012 9:40pm | Edited 10:02pm
if 1,0460 or bull flag on h4 aren't confirmed in the near future I think the safest bet for a direction are tomorow's numbers
Trade what you see not what you hope
  • #17,954
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:50pm Dec 4, 2012 9:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I was wondering why you got conflicting information from different TF.
stochastic direction and the MA of an RSI from each time frame will paint a picture of 1000 words. example: if a 4h rsi is over the MA = long, if a 1h rsi is under the MA = short, last a 15m rsi is over the MA then long. This tells me each time frame is trying to go oppsite directions to each other and this creates the chop you saw tonight. If you can get all 3 tf's over or under the MA at the same time, then you have a move or trending of some sort.
  • #17,955
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:11pm Dec 4, 2012 10:11pm
Quoting maximmm
BTW, it's not expensive to short aud from these levels. As I've mentioned before, bank bots conduct very short term trades. They do not pay swaps. The whole thing about interest rate playing a big role for the banks/big boys is very much misleading.

I can say this much though - right now, retail traders are pretty much confused. Every negative news event causes aud to rise - I can assure you that retail traders will soon start buying aud, if they haven't already, based on that fact.
There is not as much short term algo trading in the fx markets, the spreads are way to high for that & volatility will crush algos and there's no rebates. Majority of algo trading is done on very thick heavy volume instruments that barely move & trade on ecns that provide rebates. Fx market doesn't work that way.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,956
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:17pm Dec 4, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting maximmm
It doesn't always work that way. Retail traders are heavily short now, but once audusd drops a bit, retail traders will go long and they'll pay the price as aud drops further. The fact being, retail traders on average are range players and get caught when a trend begins.

Otherwise, aud will go down, if only because it broke several uptrend lines and is simply in the process of retesting them. Retail traders will turn long a 100 pips lower - thus causing aud to start a trend downwards.
I disagree I think you are totally giving the retail market way to much weight as a presence in the market. Retail money is bs & scraps in the fx market. Hammering retailers is not nearly enough money for these big banks to profit, they need to hammer other large banks & large over leveraged hedge funds. Our money means nothing to them.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,957
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:35pm Dec 4, 2012 10:35pm
Quoting DaEdge
I disagree I think you are totally giving the retail market way to much weight as a presence in the market. Retail money is bs & scraps in the fx market. Hammering retailers is not nearly enough money for these big banks to profit, they need to hammer other large banks & large over leveraged hedge funds. Our money means nothing to them.

I agree.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #17,958
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:43pm Dec 4, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting DaEdge
I disagree I think you are totally giving the retail market way to much weight as a presence in the market. Retail money is bs & scraps in the fx market. Hammering retailers is not nearly enough money for these big banks to profit, they need to hammer other large banks & large over leveraged hedge funds. Our money means nothing to them.
So, you are saying aud will go to 1.08 first based solely on your presupposition that the current levels are too low for banks to short aud? At least that's how it appears.
  • #17,959
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:53pm Dec 4, 2012 10:53pm
this is going to be a longgg week..
  • #17,960
  • Dec 4, 2012 11:02pm Dec 4, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting HelloOz
this is going to be a longgg week..
This is the turn around Tuesday!! ... err... it's already Wednesday. Maybe you're right^^
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