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  • #17,921
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:02pm Dec 4, 2012 7:02pm
Quoting fxstir
I've close my longs and have started building a short position. Would like to see 1.05.

Happy Trades,
fxstir
This being December, this consolidation channel may play out well.
Or... maybe not. Looked at previous decembers - not many of them were in consolidation.
  • #17,922
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:05pm Dec 4, 2012 7:05pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StJLvbPIvTw
  • #17,923
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:07pm Dec 4, 2012 7:07pm
1.0460 should hold, 5m down, 15m ready for up, 1h down , 4h has more up. mixed for now no trade.
  • #17,924
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:13pm Dec 4, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting kerrydrake
1.0460 should hold, 5m down, 15m ready for up, 1h down , 4h has more up. mixed for now no trade.
What indicators are you using?
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,925
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:13pm Dec 4, 2012 7:13pm
We should all go long now, because the market would never expect us to do that!^^
  • #17,926
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:13pm Dec 4, 2012 7:13pm
maybe channel will hold, but on h4 we had triple top and then a positive break out, I really am curious were this is going... I think if we start to see a break below 1.046 it could go down
Trade what you see not what you hope
  • #17,927
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:24pm Dec 4, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting maximmm
This being December, this consolidation channel may play out well.
Or... maybe not. Looked at previous decembers - not many of them were in consolidation.
Hello maximmm,

Only time will tell. My trade position is based on price action. Price hasn't left the supply zone yet but the night is young. If it goes to 1.05, all the better, as I have another sell limit waiting at that level.

Happy Trades,
fxstir
  • #17,928
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:27pm Dec 4, 2012 7:27pm
Trouble Ahead for Australia's Economy - CNBC
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,929
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:28pm Dec 4, 2012 7:28pm
OK, I'm seeing a triangle formation on the 15 minute chart. 1.0478 is next. At some point this triangle will break - the question is, to which side? If there is a need for a last wave higher - as per ewp, then it seems to make sense if aud breaks the triangle to the upside - but even if it does, I expect this to be a very very brief rally.
  • #17,930
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:29pm Dec 4, 2012 7:29pm
btw, it's not even triangle per se.... that is, it's a triangle within a parallel channel alongside the broken expansion triangle line
The problem is.... this parallel channel looks like a bullish flag^^
  • #17,931
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:35pm Dec 4, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Trouble Ahead for Australia's Economy - CNBC
I think we all know that fundamentals don't really count in forex^^
  • #17,932
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:41pm Dec 4, 2012 7:41pm
I have closed my short position. I will wait for a better entry.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #17,933
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:41pm Dec 4, 2012 7:41pm
I would not be surprised if aud broke the triangle to the downside, but even then, it will be held by the broken expanding triangle line at 1.0458 - leading aud to break the parallel channel to the upside - 1.0495 or slightly higher.

The good thing is - this should be the last wave to the upside and it is likely that we'll see reversal there.
  • #17,934
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:48pm Dec 4, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting DaddyBear
What indicators are you using?
A whole Crap load, secret stuff ya know.
  • #17,935
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:50pm Dec 4, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting maximmm
I think we all know that fundamentals don't really count in forex^^
It's all about R:R for the big guys controlling the markets & shorting this pair is still very expensive from these levels where R:R isn't that attractive for them longer term. Even a 700 pip drop factoring the range they need for entries & exits & the 3% swap I really don't see any serious downside yet from these levels. That doesn't mean we won't get 100 pip sell offs here & there but any serious longer term moves to the downside I see starting at much higher levels, basically areas where most retailers will have watched it go up so much they will finally jump on the long side cuz there so frustrated from getting burnt on all the previous shorts they have taken, that's where they hammer it & pound it to much lower levels.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,936
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:54pm Dec 4, 2012 7:54pm
Another thing people fail to realize about the fundies is that the large players have massive research teams that are doing all there homework ahead of all the news that's published & by the time the actual release comes its been priced in already in the weeks leading up to the news event. Fundies definitely move the markets but the actual releases are just areas to add liquidity for the big boys to cash out.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,937
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:58pm Dec 4, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting DaEdge
It's all about R:R for the big guys controlling the markets & shorting this pair is still very expensive from these levels where R:R isn't that attractive for them longer term. Even a 700 pip drop factoring the range they need for entries & exits & the 3% swap I really don't see any serious downside yet from these levels. That doesn't mean we won't get 100 pip sell offs here & there but any serious longer term moves to the downside I see starting at much higher levels, basically areas where most retailers will have watched it go up so much they...
It doesn't always work that way. Retail traders are heavily short now, but once audusd drops a bit, retail traders will go long and they'll pay the price as aud drops further. The fact being, retail traders on average are range players and get caught when a trend begins.

Otherwise, aud will go down, if only because it broke several uptrend lines and is simply in the process of retesting them. Retail traders will turn long a 100 pips lower - thus causing aud to start a trend downwards.
  • #17,938
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:59pm Dec 4, 2012 7:59pm
OK chart masters, could you define this weekly triangle to me? In my understanding, this is a bearish triangle at the top of the range. I am no expert at drawing charts though. You'll notice my long term short trades hanging at the top of the pennant.

Thanks
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bearish Triangle AUDUSD.jpg Size: 181 KB
  • #17,939
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:03pm Dec 4, 2012 8:03pm
BTW, it's not expensive to short aud from these levels. As I've mentioned before, bank bots conduct very short term trades. They do not pay swaps. The whole thing about interest rate playing a big role for the banks/big boys is very much misleading.

I can say this much though - right now, retail traders are pretty much confused. Every negative news event causes aud to rise - I can assure you that retail traders will soon start buying aud, if they haven't already, based on that fact.
  • #17,940
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:07pm Dec 4, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting maximmm
BTW, it's not expensive to short aud from these levels. As I've mentioned before, bank bots conduct very short term trades. They do not pay swaps. The whole thing about interest rate playing a big role for the banks/big boys is very much misleading.

I can say this much though - right now, retail traders are pretty much confused. Every negative news event causes aud to rise - I can assure you that retail traders will soon start buying aud, if they haven't already, based on that fact.
Bull trap?
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