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Extreme TMA System

  • #13,741
  • Dec 2, 2012 8:09am Dec 2, 2012 8:09am
Quoting Ak386
The system is good but I think it has a lot of noise, I think many indicators can be filtered to make it easier.
The indicators are here to filter the noise, if you want less noise scale up to higher TF's.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,742
  • Dec 3, 2012 3:28am Dec 3, 2012 3:28am
Tess, buddy thank you for your PM, with your permission i want to answer your question Publicly on the thread.

Q : " Bassramy, how're you today? I know you must have traded in December period before. I just want to know how trading looks like in December with all these festivities."

A : " More often than not, the month of December is regarded as difficult to trade by market participants. Not that it is ever really easy, but the last month of the year presents even more challenges. At least that is prevailing market “wisdom”. I tend to agree with it, even though it is hard to prove what exactly is so different here. Conditions become similar to Summer slowdown. This means that days are often ranging, non-eventful sessions, just when one would expect additional movement. Volume tends to be on average lower than during other periods. Many people tend to take extended time off, especially during later part of the month. Some trading decisions are made based on tax considerations. All said, more often than not December has different “feel”, even it is difficult to quantify what this means.

From more practical stand point, one could expect a little higher percentage of trades to be stopped out and most trading patterns would be less reliable. This could be mitigated by taking fewer trades, lowering the size of average position and shooting for smaller objectives. I simply accept the fact that costs of doing business are getting higher. Towards the end of the month I will take a few extra days off from trading, but that’s about it. Trading goes on as dictated by market developments."

You can find more on Currencies Seasonality here.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,743
  • Dec 3, 2012 3:43am Dec 3, 2012 3:43am
Weekly PA view from an Eye of an Expert :

Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller

Weekly Price Action Trading Outlook for December 3rd – December 7th 2012

EURUSD – Euro/dollar bullish above 1.2875

The EURUSD moved higher into last week’s close and we can see that near-term momentum has been bullish in this market. We would note that price has stayed contained below near-term resistance around 1.3020 but we could see the market push above that level and re-test the key resistance near 1.3150 if it remains buoyant this week. Traders can watch for price action trading buy signals if price rotates down towards 1.2875 support which is the low of last Wednesday’s pin bar setup as well as an ‘event area‘.


http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1354...-clip-20kb.png

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar buoyant above 1.5975

The GBPUSD basically consolidated last week, however it did form a very strong bullish pin bar showing rejection of 1.5975 near-term support last Wednesday, and the market remained buoyant above that support all week. Thus, near-term momentum is clearly more bullish than bearish, even though last week was a sideways week. If we continue to hold above that 1.5975 support we could see higher prices later this week if the market can break above near-term resistance around 1.6050.


http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1354...-clip-19kb.png

AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar continues to chop higher

The AUDUSD continues to grind slowly higher in a rather choppy fashion. We can see in the zoomed out daily chart view below that this market is really trading in a big range between 1.0612 resistance and 1.0165 support and is currently in the midst of moving higher towards the upper end of the trading range. Whilst this market has been rather difficult to trade lately, we are slightly more bullish biased over the near-term and would not be surprised to see this choppy grind higher continue.


http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1354...-clip-20kb.png

XAUUSD – Spot Gold trading range

The spot gold market has been trapped in a range between $1750.00 resistance and $1705.00 support for the last few weeks now. Price showed some rejection of $1705.00 support late last week and if you take a look at the 4 hour chart there were a couple of pin bars that formed showing rejection of that level last week. If price remains buoyant above $1705.00 early this week, we could see a move higher back towards the trading range resistance at $1750.00. Whereas a move back below $1705.00 would open the door up for larger losses.


http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1354...-clip-16kb.png
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,744
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:04am Dec 3, 2012 4:04am
Quoting bassramy
Tess, buddy thank you for your PM, with your permission i want to answer your question Publicly on the thread.

Q : " Bassramy, how're you today? I know you must have traded in December period before. I just want to know how trading looks like in December with all these festivities."

A : " More often than not, the month of December is regarded as difficult to trade by market participants. Not that it is ever really easy, but the last month of the year presents even more challenges. At least that is prevailing market “wisdom”....
Thanks for the response.
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #13,745
  • Edited 4:25am Dec 3, 2012 4:08am | Edited 4:25am
Your are welcome tess.

Even thought the EU have a lot of Resistances Headwinds, I would consider today's break of the Long term Down Trend-line on a close basis a shift in Long term Sentiment from Bearish to Bullish Just Notice the Previous Breaks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,746
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:01am Dec 3, 2012 5:01am
The Clock is Ticking.
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Attached Image
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,747
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:15am Dec 3, 2012 5:15am
Finally today for those of you Trading the Extreme TMA System like us and with us we are currently :

1 - PA is @ the Upper H1 and H4 so we are Flat EU waiting for it to break consolidation to go short, as a type PA tried to broke the 50 RSI 2 times but failed hope the third will be the one and its close and we have a bearish divergence on the H1 RSI also.
2 - GU, PA is @ the upper H1 and H4 Bands and we also are flat Waiting for a bearish consolidation break to go short.
3 - UCHF, Since there is a negative correlation with the EU so the same but opposite scenario applies.
4 - UCAD, we are flat consolidation is in play since past week waiting for a fresh signal to trade and possibly to the short side since the D1 TMA Bands trend is down.
5 - AU, we are short waiting for our H4 Lower Band target to be hit which i predict will be in these 2 days.
6 - NU, Same plan as the AU, we are short waiting for the H4 lower Band target to be hit.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,748
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:36am Dec 3, 2012 7:36am
Quoting bassramy
Finally today for those of you Trading the Extreme TMA System like us and with us we are currently :

1 - PA is @ the Upper H1 and H4 so we are Flat EU waiting for it to break consolidation to go short, as a type PA tried to broke the 50 RSI 2 times but failed hope the third will be the one and its close and we have a bearish divergence on the H1 RSI also.
2 - GU, PA is @ the upper H1 and H4 Bands and we also are flat Waiting for a bearish consolidation break to go short.
3 - UCHF, Since there is a negative correlation with the EU so the same...
What is your analysis on GBPCHF?
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #13,749
  • Dec 3, 2012 11:39am Dec 3, 2012 11:39am
Quoting Tess1
What is your analysis on GBPCHF?
the overall trend is down on the Daily but i have a small longs that i took on support which is an important one and after GCHF broke the WP up targeting the upper H4 Band which is also a classic resistance level, already in profit and hopefully tomorrow TF will be reached.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,750
  • Edited Dec 4, 2012 2:39am Dec 3, 2012 12:09pm | Edited Dec 4, 2012 2:39am
The Dax Today, notice how the PA has been Rejected from Resistance.
And a beautiful Bearish pin-bar is been printed yesterday @ the NY Close good luck trading it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx_d1.jpg Size: 66 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,751
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:38am Dec 4, 2012 2:38am
Crude, Dax, and Euro Stoxx 50, Nasdaq 100 E-Mini, all had a beautiful Bearish Pin-Bar being printed yesterday ( or as they call it Bearish Inverted Hammer ) @ the NY Close and all on resistance, good luck trading them.

Let me know if you like to see some pics.

Good Morning and Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,752
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:28am Dec 4, 2012 3:28am
Tess Asked me yesterday about GCHF , just wanna tell you that i took some profit today on the H4 Upper Band, waiting for consolidation and the break of it to short with the D1 TMA trend and this time targeting the D1 lower Band.

Regards,
B.R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gchf.jpg Size: 112 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,753
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:43am Dec 4, 2012 3:43am
Just to let you know.
Amid talk a major Swiss bank will impose 1.0% charge on swiss franc balances over 100 million (chunky negative interest rate!!) Cross up at 1.2137.

Its the first time since long time that i see the UCHF Break free from the EU Correlation, long live freedom.

Can you believe this baby.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echf.jpg Size: 119 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,754
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:03am Dec 4, 2012 4:03am
Good Trade, relating to yesterday EU Trend Line Analysis that i posted, Ichimoku Strategy Signals EURUSD Strength.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,755
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:25am Dec 4, 2012 4:25am
Quoting bassramy
Tess Asked me yesterday about GCHF , just wanna tell you that i took some profit today on the H4 Upper Band, waiting for consolidation and the break of it to short with the D1 TMA trend and this time targeting the D1 lower Band.

Regards,
B.R.
Ramy, that was a nice one. Wanted to enter long yesterday but thought it would be against the trend. That was why i wanted to confirm from you. I'll also wait for the opportunity to short it whenever all the ducks line up. Thanks, you are my man. I always look up to your analysis in the market cos it builds my confidence a lot. We are still waiting for the AU & NU to get to H4 lower band.
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #13,756
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:48am Dec 4, 2012 7:48am
@ Bassramy

Just wondering if you could give me the details of the HA indicator (presume it's HA) and it's settings, that you are using as a trend point.

I presume it's HA smoothed of some description but would just like clarification.

As a newbie getting used to the system, this would aid me greatly.

Many thanks

Wayne - UK
  • #13,757
  • Edited 8:20am Dec 4, 2012 7:58am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting swede5150
@ Bassramy

Just wondering if you could give me the details of the HA indicator (presume it's HA) and it's settings, that you are using as a trend point.

I presume it's HA smoothed of some description but would just like clarification.

As a newbie getting used to the system, this would aid me greatly.

Many thanks

Wayne - UK
Wayne,

Welcome aboard, i will post it so everybody can benefit from it . Settings: Period 6 and Mode 2.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Heiken_Ashi_Smoothed_Alert.mq4   5 KB | 737 downloads
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,758
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:01am Dec 4, 2012 8:01am
Quoting bassramy
Wayne,

Welcome aboard, i will posted so everybody can benefit from it . Settings: Period 6 and Mode 2.
Many thanks to your Sir.

I look forward to learning from you all
  • #13,759
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:06am Dec 4, 2012 8:06am
I really need your permission guys to scale in short AU against the trend, i don't want to break the rules specially mine but i like this trade, i have a confluence of multiple signals @ this level but its counter-trend so I'm taking it with a tight risk management rules in play ( Tight stop, Small position size ) and au fur et au mesure que this trade develop i will try to add to shorts if it goes my way, for now I'm still waiting the HA to turn red and the break of the consolidation to the Short side, targeting WS1 or the Lower H4 Band which comes First.

BTW the slope is ranging and RSI is crossing 70 Down in a while.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,760
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:30am Dec 4, 2012 8:30am
Quoting bassramy
I really need your permission guys to scale in short AU against the trend, i don't want to break the rules specially mine but i like this trade, i have a confluence of multiple signals @ this level but its counter-trend so I'm taking it with a tight risk management rules in play ( Tight stop, Small position size ) and au fur et au mesure que this trade develop i will try to add to shorts if it goes my way, for now I'm still waiting the HA to turn red and the break of the consolidation to the Short side, targeting WS1 or the Lower H4 Band...
Hi Bassramy,

MHO is this:

-TMA H4 bullish divergence + hit 0.8 (11/27)
-Cross back up MA240 (on H1)
-Break up the WP

So I'm not sure yet, that there is a reversal at this point, however H1 is way above D1 (and in a bearish divergence), so I suspect a quite strong retracement, but no downtrend yet.
Probably going back to the support around the WP (possible TP1) or DP (possible TP2).
As PA is above WP and DP (and even MP), it's for me a risky trade.

Hope I didn't say any bullshit,

Best regards,

Fable
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