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  • #56,961
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:41pm Dec 3, 2012 9:41pm
Quoting bogus
I'm short e/a, did my usual straddle. Didn't put one on au. It's been cut but gone up??? I'm glad I just play the charts. Anyone care to explain.
Cheers.
I have posted many times months ago about AUD and NZD are being seen as Safe haven while chaos everywhere (US and EZ). AUD and NZD are providing and giving good yields and relatively safe instruments for large funds.

Japanese YEN is loosing it's safe haven status as BOJ aggressively easing until inflation target reached.
  • #56,962
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:43pm Dec 3, 2012 9:43pm
Quoting Niranj
now some will say market adjusted it self much before the rate cut
Of course as buying and selling are constant and large funds are moving around seeking yields.

Becareful with your AUD/JPY short as YEN is showing strength now during Risk-Off. Might reverse in risk positive.
  • #56,963
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:47pm Dec 3, 2012 9:47pm
Quoting bogus
I'm short e/a, did my usual straddle. Didn't put one on au. It's been cut but gone up??? I'm glad I just play the charts. Anyone care to explain.
Cheers.

The accompanying statement failed to hint at any further cuts and had a fairly upbeat tone about it .
  • #56,964
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:47pm Dec 3, 2012 9:47pm
So when the interest on the Aussie rate droped 25 basis points from 3.25 to 3.0 why did the value rise 50 pips when everyone was expecting shorting? Because thats not normally the way it goes. Just because the toilets flush backwards(counter clockwise) dosn't mean the interest rates reverse the trend. Explain this?
  • #56,965
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:49pm Dec 3, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting Ken A
I have posted many times months ago about AUD and NZD are being seen as Safe haven while chaos everywhere (US and EZ). AUD and NZD are providing and giving good yields and relatively safe instruments for large funds.

Japanese YEN is loosing it's safe haven status as BOJ aggressively easing until inflation target reached.
I guess this is showing it's strength. To survive a rate cut... Maybe we'll get out of this range.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,966
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:49pm Dec 3, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
The accompanying statement failed to hint at any further cuts and had a fairly upbeat tone about it .
Cool, Thanks
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,967
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:53pm Dec 3, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting bogus
I guess this is showing it's strength. To survive a rate cut... Maybe we'll get out of this range.
Yes. I strongly believe it will. Reason beings: Operation Twist will end this December and FED might announce extension or another form of stimulus. Eurozone is showing more positive tone from those politicians. Not saying will solve the issues for good but that's enough for the markets to respond to it. If this assumption plays out; it will be very USD bearsih.
  • #56,968
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:54pm Dec 3, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting Ken A
Of course as buying and selling are constant and large funds are moving around seeking yields.

Becareful with your AUD/JPY short as YEN is showing strength now during Risk-Off. Might reverse in risk positive.

Do you mean Yen is showing weakness? Your statement doesnt make sense. I would think with risk off the AUD will strengthen and JPY weaken.


Hoping to see 88 be tested soon.
  • #56,969
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:57pm Dec 3, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting forexstrah
Do you mean Yen is showing weakness? Your statement doesnt make sense?

Risk off usually means JPY weakens.

Hoping to see 88 be tested soon.
During Risk-Off, some funds are going back into hiding buying YEN. Does that make sense to you now?
  • #56,970
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:06pm Dec 3, 2012 10:06pm
Quoting Ken A
Yes. I strongly believe it will. Reason beings: Operation Twist will end this December and FED might announce extension or another form of stimulus. Eurozone is showing more positive tone from those politicians. Not saying will solve the issues for good but that's enough for the markets to respond to it. If this assumption plays out; it will be very USD bearsih.
Nice How do you think NZD will go tomorrow?
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,971
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:09pm Dec 3, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting bogus
Nice How do you think NZD will go tomorrow?
I can't even predict if PA will move 1 pip up or 1 pip down with 10/10 accuracy let alone tomorrow

I just take one level at a time as PA progresses. But my buying zone for NZD is 0.8100-0.8200 for now.
  • #56,972
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:24pm Dec 3, 2012 10:24pm
Were you long before the announcement Ken?

I have to admire those big money players, that was the best fake out in aud/usd since June.
  • #56,973
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:26pm Dec 3, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting Iro
Were you long before the announcement Ken?

I have to admire those big money players, that was the best fake out in aud/usd since June.
I build my longs from 1.03300 down to 1.0289x and added few along the way.
  • #56,974
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:27pm Dec 3, 2012 10:27pm
[quote=Iro;6258983]Were you long before the announcement Ken?

I have to admire those big money players, that was the best fake out in aud/usd since June.[/QUOTE)

Down here we go.
  • #56,975
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:31pm Dec 3, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting ibram.forex
QUOTE=Iro;6258983 Were you long before the announcement Ken?

I have to admire those big money players, that was the best fake out in aud/usd since June.[/QUOTE)

Down here we go.
And your reason being? Or that's just random statement?
  • #56,976
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:27am Dec 4, 2012 2:27am
I know the rate cut was already expected, but what the heck? AUDUSD rallied 60 pips from 1.0408 low after the cut was confirmed. Did I miss some major piece of news?
  • #56,977
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:33am Dec 4, 2012 2:33am
Quoting Arkv
I know the rate cut was already expected, but what the heck? AUDUSD rallied 60 pips from 1.0408 low after the cut was confirmed. Did I miss some major piece of news?
Nope just a thin market that was expecting exactly what happened to happen. Low liquidity generally floats market upward looking for sellers.
It works till it doesn't
  • #56,978
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:39am Dec 4, 2012 3:39am
Quoting Arkv
I know the rate cut was already expected, but what the heck? AUDUSD rallied 60 pips from 1.0408 low after the cut was confirmed. Did I miss some major piece of news?
There's news FED will have another 85 billion assets purchase. So all links to the fact that RBA only cut -0.25%, capitals flock in. Some I see from CAD to AUD.
  • #56,979
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:44am Dec 4, 2012 3:44am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Anybody (BEARS) who is not factoring in the consequences of "QEIV" is going to be extremely disappointed this month! I don't understand how people are over looking this HUGE event which is going to weaken the USD yet again...

Here are two articles written by very credible financial research companies who have an excellent track record . They are right more than not and I definitely take what they write very seriously.

1) http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/bens-...50995?FIELD9=2

2) http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-dollar-cliff/


RBA...
To confirm what Ken just said, anybody who missed these articles should have a look...
  • #56,980
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:28am Dec 4, 2012 5:28am
Quoting DaEdge
Nope just a thin market that was expecting exactly what happened to happen. Low liquidity generally floats market upward looking for sellers.
Good call. In other words the move was already priced in neatly, a new round of trading begins.
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