Price Action, Pro, And Ichi Trading with 2ndskiesforex

Hey Traders,

Today I'm checking out the bearish engulfing bar which the EURUSD formed off the big figure at 1.3000. There are short term plays for bears if a corrective pullback into the resistance occurs, while bulls will watch the intraday support at 1.2888.

See the chart below;

Hey Traders,

Just a quick follow up how the Euro rejected right off the key level I mentioned yesterday, forming a bullish with trend pin bar in the process.

See the chart below;

Hey Traders,

The Euro is being good to us as I talked about yesterday how it would likely find sellers at the 1.3000 level, which it did today, forming a huge bearish engulfing bar off the level.

It may attempt one more go at the 1.3000 big figure this week, and a failure here will likely send it back to 1.2881 where short term support is. See chart below.

Great articles on pa Chris. I am seeing a lot of your analysis deals with pa bars and getting in after the reaction of the traders with size having an impact on the market. As you are a hedge fund manager, presumably you are shifting some size yourself around the market - or at least needing to compete on similar levels as the big boys in terms of liquidity? (presumably you don't trade retail).

However, I do not see too much evidence of the sort of liquidity hunting tactics in what you are showing. Price action bars are the reaction to the large players. The origin of those moves (before they form), are often the best places for entry with minimal risk (for those trading with size at least). We often see price action where the big players fool the masses into one direction, spiking above previous highs for example, triggering stops and limit orders, thus attracting enough liquidity to reverse large positions in the opposite direction.

Also, strong moves into SR levels will often force the weak players out of trading an opposite direction, leaving fewer traders to take away the liquidity that the large players need to reverse large positions. Aren't the practices of the larger players (the liquidity hunters), the better and lowest risk techniques? Or do you think such an approach is over exaggerated in Forex trading? Presumably without the level 2 quotes you feel PA bars are more applicable to retail trading.

Hello Porkpie,

I think there is some confusion here. First of, how do you figure my analysis deals with pa bars and getting in after the reaction? PA Bars can be both the cause and the result of order flow. Certainly they are always the result, but they can also be the cause of new order flow.

Second, having a fund does not necessarily put me in with the big boys or competing on the same level for liquidity. Considering the 3 largest players compromise 39% of the market, and top 5 about 51%, you are going to need some serious size to compete with them. Having a fund does not put you on par with them by any means so this is a misunderstanding of how this market works on an institutional level.

Thirdly, if you do not see evidence of liquidity hunting tactics, then you do not understand the market. What do you think HFT's are doing with their layering tactics or phantom orders? Considering HFT's now comprise 28% of all daily flow in FX, this is self-evident by the nature of what they do, even though a large portion of HFT activity is AMM. Now, I may or may not show that in my posts, but I do to my private members.

Regardless of the above, we do agree on one point here, is that the origin of where institutional and ibank players are getting in 'can' be an ideal place to get in with minimal risk (but this would depend upon your strategy now wouldn't it?).

As to level 2 quotes, they are from your broker, and considering retail brokers compromise at best on any day - what 10% of the market combined, any individual broker is reflecting back to you via level 2 quotes at best - what .5% of the market? This is not reflective of a decentralized market with non-aggregate order flow reflections.

Lastly, my fund trades a PA algorithm based on quantitative analysis regardless of level 2 quotes, and considering my fund has an audited track record for the last 10+ years, I think that qualifies what we do and how we trade, without the need for level 2 quotes to trade our algo.

Anyways, hope this helps.

Have a good weekend.
Chris

Hey Traders,

Just checking out this Oil pin bar rejection at the channel top which may not hold much longer. Check out the chart below;

Hey Traders,

Checking out this combo pin bar + SDB pattern on the Gold 4hr chart. Take a look at the chart below;

Hello Traders,

Just to recap yesterday's Gold trade went exactly to the $1705 level and sold off almost $20 so hopefully you took advantage of that.

Today I'm checking out the GBPJPY as its attempting to complete a major breakout of some yearly highs. See the chart below.

Hey Traders,

Looking at Gold here coming up to a role reversal level. If the intraday price action looks corrective, I'll sell it, but if it breaks above the key level, I'll look for an intraday buy towards $1715.

Take a look below.

Hello Traders,

I just wanted to post a live intraday price action trade I took on Gold today, buying the dip on the NFP reaction as I detected strong buying interest at my level based on short term price action. Chart below:



The trade ended up with +1415pips of profit and I'm still holding some more if I see more upside potential.

Remember, you do not have to wait for A+ cherry trades to only come a few days a week as these come every day, several times a day all the time.

If you are waiting around for days on end to get good trades like this, you are wasting time, money and hurting your learning curve. All of these trades can be spotted with just a little learning, practice and study.

Happy trading and have a good weekend!

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Hola Traders,

Just wanted to share an intraday price action trade I took on Gold today snagging +1230 pips (Over 4x Reward-Risk Play) and getting within $1.50 from the intraday top so far. Chart below;



I know there is constant talk about trading anything lower than the 1hr charts as being 'noise' or rarely having A+ quality setups. But this is simply just not true as these setups happen all the time.

There are plenty of opportunities to catch trades like this which offered over a 4x reward play, and you do not have to be waiting around for days to catch these. If you are, you are wasting your time, money and hurting your learning process in a tremendous way.

Food for thought and good hunting for the week!

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hello Traders,

Just wanted to follow up on Gold which I have been tracking a lot lately. It hit the daily 20ema which I talked about in my weekly market commentary, forming a pin bar in the process. I think this is a weak pin bar, and will likely lead to higher prices after a shallow pullback, which I will likely be looking to get in on. Chart below.

Hey Traders,

So the Gold trade I mentioned yesterday went to the role reversal level as mentioned, and has since bounced over +600pips from this level. Hopefully you got into it and made some profit.

I am not watching the $1705-$1715 level for a breakout to play the next direction. For now, my bias is long, but the FOMC meeting tomorrow could change everything so stay tuned.

Hello Traders,

Here is another live price action trade I did on Gold today, all using the same analysis I shared with you over the last few posts on Gold as the levels I mentioned worked to a charm.

Total profit on today's trade was +1207 pips and am still holding for likely further upside play. Clearing $1723 intraday resistance opens the door for the $1735 level, while a break below $1705 opens downside up to $1690/85.



Good hunting for the rest of the day as Bernanke is speaking soon which should add some volatility to the markets.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Hello Traders,

I'm now looking at the Dow Jones which has formed a pin bar off the critical resistance at 13300. There might be a pullback here and opportunity to sell if the price action looks corrective. Any break above here will target the yearly highs at 13600 where sellers are likely parked.

Chart below;

Hola Traders,

Today i'm checking out Crude Oil which has been showing signs of accumulation buying and formed two intraday breakouts. Am watching pullbacks towards $87.66 and $87.10 to possible get long. Chart below;

Hello Traders,

Am watching the EURUSD which has made an impressive lift-a-thon lately climbing 400+ pips in about 11 days. It has formed a LH and pin bar in the process, so the uptrend may stall here and start to reverse lower. 1.3300 is a critical resistance for bulls while 1.3184 is their support line. But considering we are heading into the holiday weekend, will current bulls want to hold their positions over the weekend?

Chart below.

Hello Chris and merry christmas,

Can you please tell me a bit about the ichimoku course? I especially want to ask about 1. the minimum risk reward of the systems and 2. minimum accuracy and 3. how actively do the 4 hour and daily systems trade approximately ?

Thank you and have a great holiday season.

Hola Misterboy and Feliz Navidad to you as well!

In regards to your questions;

1) min. risk/reward is 1:1, but many of the trades can go for large runners, with some students posting 1:4, some up to 1:9!

2) min. accuracy over 54%, highest around 75%

3) 4hr systems trade several times a week, but also depends upon what strategies you are using. Also strategies on the 1hr, 30m and 5m as well, so quite a range.

Hopefully this answers your questions.

Thoughts?

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hello misterboy,

Here is a trade I took the other day, it just hit the TP. I wish I would have seen this earlier, but it is a mix of PA and his new Price Theory. I took the the A, B. and C waves and calculate where price was going. Amazing it was almost perfect. But to answer your question an bit further, there are several entries you can enter on the H4 during the week using both the systems and Ichi with PA like I do. I use a combo usually of both. Trade about three of the sytems and several Ichi/PA trades over the course of a week, such as the trade below. Too bad I didn't calculate earlier or it would have been crazy R:R. Even though I got in late, the R:R was still around 1:2. But if you want to trade forex you have come to the right place.