AUD/USD

TL = trendline. This one starts in jul 11 at around 11060 and is currently around 10530. Only thing that moves seem to be equities doing it's EOY rally. Cut or even better large cut (50bps) should push it above previous recent high.

RD and overlap of trendline and 50% fib. BUY with SL and TP of 50 pips

From 82-85 AUD unemployment was sky high with over 10 and 11% in some states starting in 94-95 you had a massive real growth in Mining and housing it might be the mentality at the moment seeing how Australia has not had a set back for over 20years that makes the Real estate guys OR investment gurus not doubt Australia's capability to continue on but this is the exact reason why every major collapse occurs vanity and Assurance takes hold.

Australia is only as good as its trading partners, they have modeled the economy to service the resource sector and have completely evaded everyone else. Now they are overly diversified in Asia and not to mention in Energy and Metals if China were to continue to grow back above 8.0% (ot likely anytime soon) on GDP and Japan's position as they were in 2003-2009 then yes I can see Australia continue to thrive. The problem is Terms of trade are essential to the very survival of growth if you have too much supply in the market when growth rates were at boom times than your fine but if you have the same levels in current growth rates than an adjustment (slowly) occurs.

Stevens acknowledged that Terms of Trade would go down about 15% next year and everyone acknowledges a peak in mining end of next year. As for the safe haven status you can look at history to know that Central Banks have diversified into other countries they perceive to be safe an high yielding NOK, ZAR, RUB ect but like them they have had domestic shocks also.

Aud at a fair price next year and the year after is downward to make sure that a soft landing is warranted. IF the RBA refutes this and does not act then they will do what the majors have done in the great crash and lower rates back to back at 50bps.

I understand the idea for a AAA investment and the pensioners look to this but they are also looking at and considering the risk of
What if Japan goes into recession next year?
What if China's growth numbers are stagnant for another couple years at these current levels
Iron ORE ANd Coal what if they continue on this heavy vol and price swings keep up between 125-100tonne.

The ways australia can advert a serious issue is lower the cash rate at least 2 more times by Summer 2013 and start with focus more on diversification in other areas.

Newcrest Mining understands this thats why they are also diversifying into other sectors to advert a cash flow crisis when the crap really hits the fan.

For short term traders most of this should not be of concern but for those position traders asking these questions should be analyzed and taken into consideration

As a trader is as only good as their last trad a country is only as good as the perception of return of capital

The bond market and inflows have and are still favorable to AUD but once rates get cut to 2.75-2.50 investment strategy and flows are reassessed

I hope to pick up girls like this one day

I feel safer to buy on dips only. Too many data and theory are more confusing. I wish hope pray got the opportunity to long at .980 and hold it for year to enjoy the positive swap 1.75-2.5%

AUD/USD was as low as 1.0393 today with support at 1.0402, buoyed by positive Chinese data. There is however pressure for AUD to fall as interest rates are expected to drop tomorrow. There is a likely scenario that the market may have already factored in the move.

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‘SHADOW’ BANK WANTS TO KEEP POWDER DRY

Some experts think it is too early to cut rates. The Australian National University’s so-called “shadow” Reserve Bank board urged the central bank to keep rates unchanged today. The group includes two former board members, Warwick McKibbin and Bob Gregory.“The current Australian cash rate is one notch above the rate that was reached in the depth of the financial crisis, and I do not think the current risks for the . . . economy are anything close to those,” said shadow member Jeffrey Sheen, a professor of economics at Macquarie University.In the minutes of their November meeting, the bank said that “further easing may be appropriate in the period ahead.”Another factor likely to spur policy makers into action today is the darkening outlook for the labour market.Of particular note were sharp declines in the mining states of Western Australia and Queensland, as well as in New South Wales.The last time such a comparable decline was recorded, in mid-2001, the jobless rate surge 0.5 of a percentage point, according to ANZ economist Ivan Colhoun.“Without further monetary policy easing, the unemployment rate may rise towards 6 per cent by the end of 2013,” he said.

expecting strong upside reaction... looks like small rate cut or no rate cut is being baked in.

So what, let's say there will be no rate cut, Aud/[email protected] is a fair daily, and weekly short, fundamentally and technically. therefore if there will be no rate cut this pair will be sold at 1.0470-80 and with the cut it will find its way down.however I prefer to short NZD/USD since the cut will be certain there.

1.0370-50. Coming 2 a screen near u

RBA has 2hr to revised their statement..

Everybody loves chart so I'll contribute mine. Can you guess whether I'm a bear or a bull?

OK -0.25%. Now what?

merry xmas

I'm short e/a, did my usual straddle. Didn't put one on au. It's been cut but gone up??? I'm glad I just play the charts. Anyone care to explain.
Cheers.

Merry X-Mas to all that have accepted 'Safe Haven'.

wait for it buddy..

now some will say market adjusted it self much before the rate cut