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  • #17,421
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:42pm Dec 2, 2012 6:42pm
Quoting rapidfx
if rabate cute happen...AUD will go down?
probably
  • #17,422
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:45pm Dec 2, 2012 6:45pm
the month start for aud tend to be a little more shaky and volatile due to many major announcements. did anyone spotted the bearish divergence? of aud/usd slamming down from 1.04 range?
  • #17,423
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:45pm Dec 2, 2012 6:45pm
Time to go short
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #17,424
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:46pm Dec 2, 2012 6:46pm
Quoting DaEdge
Think about what your saying your talking about a test to .9800 from 1.0440ish which is where we are now. That's 650 pips. They would need at least 150 pip range to get there size on so now there's 500 pips of profit. They will need another 150 range to get out so now we're at 350 pips of profit. Now if you look at a sell off from 1.1000 your looking at 1300 pips of profit less 300 pips range total btwn entries & exits that's 1000 pips of profit, which makes way more sense on an expensive trade like shorting the A$. Holding A$ shorts is not cheap....
This is truly brilliant. I suggest you send this message to the banks and explain how they made a mistake in building a triangle formation or better yet, being short at 1.10 when the interest rate was at 4.5 percent - thus causing them huge losses.

I think .... some people believe that if the interest rate on a particular pair is positive, the pair should go up and only up. Well, that I suppose is the mentality of retail traders.
  • #17,425
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:46pm Dec 2, 2012 6:46pm
1.04 looks like hard support.
  • #17,426
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:48pm Dec 2, 2012 6:48pm
ADX on the 1h hour was very low and quite ready for a move like this, but the 4H is nearing a bottom unless Fundies kick in and shake everything up. DB , you have a shake everything up Toon ?
  • #17,427
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:48pm Dec 2, 2012 6:48pm
Quoting maximmm
This is truly brilliant. I suggest you send this message to the banks and explain how they made a mistake in building a triangle formation or better yet, being short at 1.10 when the interest rate was at 4.5 percent - thus causing them huge losses.

I think .... some people believe that if the interest rate on a particular pair is positive, the pair should go up and only up. Well, that I suppose is the mentality of retail traders.
Thats true. But is relevant for equity market. Not sure how aud will react.
  • #17,428
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:49pm Dec 2, 2012 6:49pm
hello Guys.

GM from here. im new on this thread. hope i can join and get green pips
  • #17,429
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:50pm Dec 2, 2012 6:50pm
Quoting bonus76
1.04 looks like hard support.
It's a strong zone indeed. 0405 - 0400 - 0395
H1 close below 0395 would mean a lot to bears.
  • #17,430
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:53pm Dec 2, 2012 6:53pm
Quoting maximmm
This is truly brilliant. I suggest you send this message to the banks and explain how they made a mistake in building a triangle formation or better yet, being short at 1.10 when the interest rate was at 4.5 percent - thus causing them huge losses.

I think .... some people believe that if the interest rate on a particular pair is positive, the pair should go up and only up. Well, that I suppose is the mentality of retail traders.
If you look at the charts you will see the huge move down following 1.1000 being broken. Bad news bud banks don't trade patterns. PM gives you a range to buy or sell & traders get the orders filled. Your only looking at 1 side of the pair the situation is US is far worse than the situation in Australia. Please don't try and belittle me when you have zero clue what your taking about. Banks trade fundies not patterns. You think there risking billions on triangle patterns. The patterns are formed after they've already decided how they are going to trade. I a sure you no bank is looking at the triangle pattern saying lets put 20B on this pattern.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,431
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:55pm Dec 2, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting Stretch
It's a strong zone indeed. 0405 - 0400 - 0395
H1 close below 0395 would mean a lot to bears.
H1 Close below would mean "this zone is done" Maybe only a retest of 0395.7, from perhaps 0382.6
Off course if it retests and doesn't hold, back to the zone
  • #17,432
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:56pm Dec 2, 2012 6:56pm
1.035 should be in cards today. How about if they cut 50 basis points?
  • #17,433
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:02pm Dec 2, 2012 7:02pm
Quoting Stretch
H1 Close below would mean "this zone is done" Maybe only a retest of 0395.7, from perhaps 0382.6
Off course if it retests and doesn't hold, back to the zone
No close below. So zone is not done yet at least not confirmed. Still doesn't mean it has to bounce for a bit, but it could bounce around in the zone. 0405, 0400, 0395


I have a L pending around 0384, but might only be a scalp or a loser.
  • #17,434
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:04pm Dec 2, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting Stretch
No close below. So zone is not done yet at least not confirmed. Still doesn't mean it has to bounce for a bit, but it could bounce around in the zone. 0405, 0400, 0395


I have a L pending around 0384, but might only be a scalp or a loser.
are u long or short at 0384
  • #17,435
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:05pm Dec 2, 2012 7:05pm
The banks and pros have to have this getting in too early trade, for a reversal figured out by now. Price is going up and there is more room for down and retailers are not enough to make this move. Maybe market makers push the price up a bit to drag us in and then continue it downward again. This is where they make their money.
  • #17,436
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:07pm Dec 2, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting bonus76
are u long or short at 0384
Quoting Stretch
I have a L pending around 0384, but might only be a scalp or a loser.
It's a pending, still flat atm.
  • #17,437
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:15pm Dec 2, 2012 7:15pm
Is it just me, or does something not feel right?
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #17,438
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:19pm Dec 2, 2012 7:19pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Is it just me, or does something not feel right?
Re-testing 1.04, watching if I want to go long on that breakout
  • #17,439
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:20pm Dec 2, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting DaEdge
If you look at the charts you will see the huge move down following 1.1000 being broken. Bad news bud banks don't trade patterns. PM gives you a range to buy or sell & traders get the orders filled. Your only looking at 1 side of the pair the situation is US is far worse than the situation in Australia. Please don't try and belittle me when you have zero clue what your taking about. Banks trade fundies not patterns. You think there risking billions on triangle patterns. The patterns are formed after they've already decided how they are going to...
Banks are trading funds as well as algorithms. Furthermore, these days banks trade using bots - these are high frequency trades - not overnight trades, as may be the case with hedge funds.
The triangle bit, you may well be right - we see triangles, while others may see 'fundies'. Regardless, the triangle formation does show the current trading pattern of the banks - one which is leading to narrower and narrower consolidation - one which will lead to a breakout in 2013. The interest rate bit? I stand by it. To think that a positive interest rate will cause a pair to move higher is far from being the rule. Furthermore, if the interest rate is cut by 0.50%, saying that aud will move down only for a few days but then move much higher in the end tells me that you are not seeing reason - at all. In fact, it tells me that you are perma-bull - whereas, believe it or not, I do see aud move higher if 1.06 is broken, but until that happens, see a bigger likelihood for a bigger move lower. You have to be flexible at times - seriously.
  • #17,440
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:21pm Dec 2, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Is it just me, or does something not feel right?
Could have been a stophunt before moving up, but I don't think it's low enough for that.

At least a H1 close above the zone I mentioned would mean, the upside is in the picture again in the short-term.
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