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  • #56,921
  • Dec 2, 2012 11:30am Dec 2, 2012 11:30am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Anybody (BEARS) who is not factoring in the consequences of "QEIV" is going to be extremely disappointed this month! I don't understand how people are over looking this HUGE event which is going to weaken the USD yet again...

Here are two articles written by very credible financial research companies who have an excellent track record . They are right more than not and I definitely take what they write very seriously.

1) http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/bens-...50995?FIELD9=2

2) http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-dollar-cliff/


RBA...
Everyone seems to want to be the one to find the top/bottom instead of paying attention to how the price is really moving and what the bigger picture is. Even with an RBA rate cut of .25bps to 3%, thats excellent swap for one of the majors. Lets not forget the fiscal cliff will be resolved before the end of the year this is the same song & dance as last year & the FED will continue to pump money into US economy to float the markets. It might not be a smooth ride but I believe risk currencies will continue to stay proped up.
It works till it doesn't
  • #56,922
  • Dec 2, 2012 1:10pm Dec 2, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting DaEdge
Everyone seems to want to be the one to find the top/bottom instead of paying attention to how the price is really moving and what the bigger picture is. Even with an RBA rate cut of .25bps to 3%, thats excellent swap for one of the majors. Lets not forget the fiscal cliff will be resolved before the end of the year this is the same song & dance as last year & the FED will continue to pump money into US economy to float the markets. It might not be a smooth ride but I believe risk currencies will continue to stay proped up.
Yep!

Never a good idea to try and pick a top/bottom or go against the trend...
  • #56,923
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:19pm Dec 2, 2012 3:19pm
Goodish numbers out for China on weekend and expected Aussie to higher.
Waiting for RBA? perhaps.
AUD/JPY stalling before falling ? Well dlr/yen is struggling to get momentum on the top so bulls beware.
AUD/JPY longs and there are plenty of late jumpers maybe getting frustrated and perhaps might bail before RBA decision tomorrow.

Let see how we go in the next 24 hours
  • #56,924
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:00pm Dec 2, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting DaEdge
Everyone seems to want to be the one to find the top/bottom instead of paying attention to how the price is really moving and what the bigger picture is. Even with an RBA rate cut of .25bps to 3%, thats excellent swap for one of the majors. Lets not forget the fiscal cliff will be resolved before the end of the year this is the same song & dance as last year & the FED will continue to pump money into US economy to float the markets. It might not be a smooth ride but I believe risk currencies will continue to stay proped up.
Another -0.25% rate cut will be a good opportunity for fresh liquidity to jump in.
  • #56,925
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:09pm Dec 2, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting Ken A
Another -0.25% rate cut will be a good opportunity for fresh liquidity to jump in.
Agreed I posted in another thread that .25bps cut from RBA would probably cause a 50/75 pip max sell off which would most likely be fully retraced before the end of the next trading session. A cut more than .25bps would probably cause a couple of day sell off, before it continues to move higher.
It works till it doesn't
  • #56,926
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:27pm Dec 2, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Anybody (BEARS) who is not factoring in the consequences of "QEIV" is going to be extremely disappointed this month! I don't understand how people are over looking this HUGE event which is going to weaken the USD yet again...

Here are two articles written by very credible financial research companies who have an excellent track record . They are right more than not and I definitely take what they write very seriously.

1) http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/bens-...50995?FIELD9=2

2) http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-dollar-cliff/...
I respect your opinion so plan to read those articles, however I can't see QE4 happening anytime soon. With the first 3 happening approx 2yrs apart it is FAR too early to be looking to QE4. With Twist (some say QE2.5) due to finish I CAN easily see that being extended but given the very limited impact of QE3 (post announcement as opposed to all the build up beforehand) I do not expect huge movement up from Twist extension. Has someone got figures on the impact of each QE announcement? I think I read somewhere that the impact of each has diminished.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #56,927
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:39pm Dec 2, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting dab
I respect your opinion so plan to read those articles, however I can't see QE4 happening anytime soon. With the first 3 happening approx 2yrs apart it is FAR too early to be looking to QE4. With Twist (some say QE2.5) due to finish I CAN easily see that being extended but given the very limited impact of QE3 (post announcement as opposed to all the build up beforehand) I do not expect huge movement up from Twist extension. Has someone got figures on the impact of each QE announcement? I think I read somewhere that the impact of each has diminished....
Read the articles and you will get a better understanding as to why Operation Twist will not be extended and will more than likely be replaced with something else more aggressive. Also, the second article provides a chart in regards to when QEII was announced (november 2010) and the price of gold/silver.

By the way, just to put it in perspective, November 2010 price of gold was roughly 1300 an ounce. Within 6 months Gold shot up like $500 an ounce or so...

I'm standing by my premise that Operation Twist will be no more, but the FED will replace the Twist with something more aggressive.

There are only 3 options here:
1) Extend the "Twist"
2) Let it expire
3) Replace it with something else

The market has become addicted to monetary stimulus. If the Fed does nothing, the market will be extremely disappointed. There is no way that Ben Bernanke is going to let this happen...
  • #56,928
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:42pm Dec 2, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting dab
I respect your opinion so plan to read those articles, however I can't see QE4 happening anytime soon. With the first 3 happening approx 2yrs apart it is FAR too early to be looking to QE4. With Twist (some say QE2.5) due to finish I CAN easily see that being extended but given the very limited impact of QE3 (post announcement as opposed to all the build up beforehand) I do not expect huge movement up from Twist extension. Has someone got figures on the impact of each QE announcement? I think I read somewhere that the impact of each has diminished....
One simple way to see the impact is comparing USD Index with the period of easing.
  • #56,929
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:57pm Dec 2, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
The market has become addicted to monetary stimulus. If the Fed does nothing, the market will be extremely disappointed. There is no way that Ben Bernanke is going to let this happen...
you should remember that, eventually, government has to withdraw its support
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,930
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:17pm Dec 2, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting redteamgo
you should remember that, eventually, government has to withdraw its support
Hi,

Does anyone know what happend to GFT a/c's

They are not allowing the us member trade.

Thanks.
KC.
  • #56,931
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:17pm Dec 2, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting DaEdge
Agreed I posted in another thread that .25bps cut from RBA would probably cause a 50/75 pip max sell off which would most likely be fully retraced before the end of the next trading session. A cut more than .25bps would probably cause a couple of day sell off, before it continues to move higher.
More likely no cut considering China is picking up and since Ausie is export oriented rather than domestics spending.
  • #56,932
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:24pm Dec 2, 2012 5:24pm
Oh dear.. The wheels are falling off for the Australian economy.
The govt has handed out a stimulus for Carbon tax and also RBA interest rate cuts yet still retail sales show nothing.
Inflation looks under control despite certain pockets, unemployment set to rise.

Lets just say here the financial world arent looking at Australia's sound economy because the current numbers arent saying anything positive. Its all about yield and those juicy interest rates.

So the exporters,business community and tourist operators are complaining about level of the AUD ..

RBA may have its chance to shine to aggressively cut by 0.5pct to give it a kicker rather than .25pct.. I doubt it as the RBA reasoning is there is worse to come and want to keep their powder dry (lame)..
Certainly risk remains the downside.
  • #56,933
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:25pm Dec 2, 2012 5:25pm
Quoting Ken A
More likely no cut considering China is picking up and since Ausie is export oriented rather than domestics spending.
well i just entered short on aud/jpy at around 85.90.


you are right trades entered are at iur own risk , cant blame this thread. i am targetting 150 pips with SL 60 PIPS
  • #56,934
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:40pm Dec 2, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting Niranj
well i just entered short on aud/jpy at around 85.90.


you are right trades entered are at iur own risk , cant blame this thread. i am targetting 150 pips with SL 60 PIPS
It's too risky to long JPY unless for scalping and fully attended. Japan will keep easing until inflation target reached. Not to influence your trade, will be safer to buy on dips. We don't know when large funds will jump in with +100 pips spike.
  • #56,935
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:20pm Dec 2, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Read the articles and you will get a better understanding as to why Operation Twist will not be extended and will more than likely be replaced with something else more aggressive. Also, the second article provides a chart in regards to when QEII was announced (november 2010) and the price of gold/silver.

By the way, just to put it in perspective, November 2010 price of gold was roughly 1300 an ounce. Within 6 months Gold shot up like $500 an ounce or so...

I'm standing by my premise that Operation Twist will be no more, but the FED will replace...
I've read the articles and don't pretend to understand all of them but from what I do understand I accept that extension of twist is unlikely. I now wonder about another scenario though:
Before the US election it was suggested that if Romney got in he would get rid of Bernake (Without knowing much about US politics I assume Romney doesn't like the QE policiies). Let's say Bernake goes with your option 3 - replace twist with something else. Isn't this likely to inflame the Republicans in the middle of US Fiscal Cliff debates and make them more likely to not accept a deal?

Whatever scenario unfolds I still have trouble seeing it as a postive result. More debt won't solve the problems, only delay them so it's really back to the question of when things will implode and in what order? I'll stick with money management so that it's hopefully not my account.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #56,936
  • Dec 2, 2012 8:30pm Dec 2, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting dab
I've read the articles and don't pretend to understand all of them but from what I do understand I accept that extension of twist is unlikely. I now wonder about another scenario though:
Before the US election it was suggested that if Romney got in he would get rid of Bernake (Without knowing much about US politics I assume Romney doesn't like the QE policiies). Let's say Bernake goes with your option 3 - replace twist with something else. Isn't this likely to inflame the Republicans in the middle of US Fiscal Cliff debates and make them more...
Even though Romney wanted to replace Ben Bernanke I don't think he could have until 2014 which is when Ben's term is officially over as far as I know.

As far as stimulus goes (QE & Twist) these are monetary tools used to stimulate the economy in times like this, however, the FED does have the ability/option to bring in USD when they see fit. I'm not saying they will reel in the additional trillions they have and are pumping into the economy somewhere down the road, just that they have the option to do so. BUT...the FED is not likely to do so anytime soon and are more likely to keep "stimulating" through the monetary tools at their disposal. I'm not saying this is good for the USD in the long term, it is just the road they are taking now.

Another FF member called the fiscal cliff situation a "wildcard" as the outcome is unknown... I'm not sure what will happen early 2013 but I am bullish on risk assets for the month of December.
  • #56,937
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:09pm Dec 2, 2012 9:09pm
If price stays with the triangle, meaning it is around 1.06~ when the template is over, then that point would be a great price to sell. The template is 150 trading days long, however, since my platform includes weekends in the future but not in the past, the date is not precise. I've tried to fix this problem, but nope. Starting date is the first of June.

Daily
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,938
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:53pm Dec 2, 2012 9:53pm
1.0368 is my main area of interest on the D1.
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #56,939
  • Dec 2, 2012 10:14pm Dec 2, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting Ken A
More likely no cut considering China is picking up and since Ausie is export oriented rather than domestics spending.
I never try to predict the outcome of the news and regardless of what happens tomorrow I still see the A$ going up more before any major moves down.
It works till it doesn't
  • #56,940
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:48am Dec 3, 2012 12:48am
Quoting macroman
seasonal.... aud predicted up in december. So is stockmarket. I think this can happen with cut or no cut. As consumer sentiment this time around is of special importance, cant see batch of bad news coming in december. I expect cut.

aud not going down until TL at around 10530 is breached to scare out remaining doomsayers.

With further escalation of things in EU developing as I write, AU will be seen as true safe haven

See copper !
What's TL? The Aussie will continue to be a safe haven, but will range. That's why we're here though, huh?!.
Consumer sentiment will be bad, but don't sweat it. Consumer numbers have been flat/below inflation for months now. The high dollar means lot's of overseas internet shopping for Christmas instead of our local stores. Big retailers like Myer are without a pulse at this point. In Australia we call this our "two-speed" economy, the booming mining sector and rest.
You can't look at Aussie fundamentals the way we did before 2010, everything's different now. Yes, look at copper. Look at minerals and mining equities against the ASX200.
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