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  • #17,401
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:01pm Dec 2, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Retail traders' thinking cannot move the market.
Banks make money off retail traders - that's why if retail keep buying dips, aud will go down hard.
  • #17,402
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:03pm Dec 2, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting maximmm
Is everyone looking for a rate cut?

I actually think that while economists are looking for a rate cut, most retail traders are thinking that there won't be a cut due to fundamentals. Essentially, economic data coming from Australia is so good that there aren't many that are thinking of a big drop in aud PA and will buy dips as a consequence.

To be perfectly honest, I have no idea if there will be a rate cut - but if there will be one, I have major doubts that it will be anywhere near to being priced in - thus, there will be a big drop if...
3% which is a .25bps cut from RBA on tuesday if thats the outcome is still way better than any of the majors & big banks using large amounts of capital & leverage will do very well on the carry trade holding longs in A$
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,403
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:04pm Dec 2, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting maximmm
Banks make money off retail traders - that's why if retail keep buying dips, aud will go down hard.
Every retailer wants to short this pair & has been & keeps getting burnt. Bank don't only make money of retailers they make of each other as well. Every bank has different reasons for being on opposite sides of each trade. Retail money alone is not enough to keep big banks profitable they need to beat other banks as well.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,404
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:09pm Dec 2, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting DaEdge
I think so. The current price levels don't warrant a major commitment of capital from smart money to get short. Keep in mind big banks layer in & out of there positions they don't hammer it all at 1 shot. The highs are much closer to the current price levels & the high would provide a much better RR for the big money that requires a larger range to establish there positions because of the size there trading.
Current levels don't warrant a big move down? The year long triangle warrants a big move down. If the triangle gets broken to the upside, only then would I expect aud to hit 1.10 prior to a bigger move down.

Although I do not know whether there will be a rate cut or not, we are at the top of a triangle formation and as such, it is better to be short than long, given the real possibility of a retest of the lower triangle line at 0.98 figure. I can assure you, banks are more than aware of the year old triangle formation - they are the ones that built it and they will continue to play it - though again, the risk of a break to the upside does exist, but it is also very unlikely. I see this triangle as a consolidation of a sort. It's a one year old consolidation and I am certain that it will be broken in 2013 - but this week/month? The odds are against it - as that would break the cycle.
  • #17,405
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:15pm Dec 2, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting DaEdge
3% which is a .25bps cut from RBA on tuesday if thats the outcome is still way better than any of the majors & big banks using large amounts of capital & leverage will do very well on the carry trade holding longs in A$
Ah, I think I may have turned this into a 'fundamentals' discussion. Let's stick to the technicals.
  • #17,406
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:16pm Dec 2, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting DaddyBear
AUDUSD M5 is in 15 to 20 pips average range during normal situations. IMO
Thank you DB! Was just trying to count some of the ranges, it indeed seems to trade 15-20 but 30 isn't unlikely too. Will try to find out more this month, though I will still put more time in my current method first.
  • #17,407
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:16pm Dec 2, 2012 5:16pm
My broker is down but would sell aud hard.
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/12/02/the-australian-productivity-in-mining-a-disaster-says-bis-shrapnel-report/
  • #17,408
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:19pm Dec 2, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting maximmm
Current levels don't warrant a big move down? The year long triangle warrants a big move down. If the triangle gets broken to the upside, only then would I expect aud to hit 1.10 prior to a bigger move down.

Although I do not know whether there will be a rate cut or not, we are at the top of a triangle formation and as such, it is better to be short than long, given the real possibility of a retest of the lower triangle line at 0.98 figure. I can assure you, banks are more than aware of the year old triangle formation - they are the ones...
Think about what your saying your talking about a test to .9800 from 1.0440ish which is where we are now. That's 650 pips. They would need at least 150 pip range to get there size on so now there's 500 pips of profit. They will need another 150 range to get out so now we're at 350 pips of profit. Now if you look at a sell off from 1.1000 your looking at 1300 pips of profit less 300 pips range total btwn entries & exits that's 1000 pips of profit, which makes way more sense on an expensive trade like shorting the A$. Holding A$ shorts is not cheap. There needs to be a lot of room to warrant the smart money getting short.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,409
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:27pm Dec 2, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting Stretch
Thank you DB! Was just trying to count some of the ranges, it indeed seems to trade 15-20 but 30 isn't unlikely too. Will try to find out more this month, though I will still put more time in my current method first.
During the right moment, more than 20 or 30 pips is likely.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,410
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:35pm Dec 2, 2012 5:35pm
Current PA is a retracement within a larger retracement. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,411
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:39pm Dec 2, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Current PA is a retracement within a larger retracement. IMO
This is like a rebellious son living in a mob family.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,412
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:41pm Dec 2, 2012 5:41pm
Listening to all economist 3:1 are for rate cut 2morrow. Last month was easy but not sure anymore for 2morrow
  • #17,413
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:45pm Dec 2, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting bonus76
Listening to all economist 3:1 are for rate cut 2morrow. Last month was easy but not sure anymore for 2morrow
This may cause a pre-RBA sell-off.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,414
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:48pm Dec 2, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This may cause a pre-RBA sell-off.
o
Everyone says rate even inflation is low but on back of mind i am thinking there wont be rate cut as xmas is close so ppl will spend money anyway and they be reluctant to do anything before xmas holiday kick in in. And in terest rate cut would be not so good for investors who park their money in high saver account. I would stand aside
  • #17,415
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:34pm Dec 2, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Here is what I am thinking. Down until 1830 EST. Up until 1930 EST. Time is of the essence.
Time is the most important element in the chart.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,416
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:35pm Dec 2, 2012 6:35pm
That was one hell of an 1min bar.
  • #17,417
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:37pm Dec 2, 2012 6:37pm
Sweet ! Thanksgiving all over again.......
  • #17,418
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:38pm Dec 2, 2012 6:38pm
Quoting Stretch
That was one hell of an 1min bar.
sick..
there is a higher chance RBA will cut tomorrow.
  • #17,419
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:39pm Dec 2, 2012 6:39pm
with this retail numbers i belive we r going to have rate cut
  • #17,420
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:40pm Dec 2, 2012 6:40pm
Quoting bonus76
with this retail numbers i belive we r going to have rate cut
if rate cute happen...AUD will go down?
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