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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #17,381
  • Dec 2, 2012 1:09pm Dec 2, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Thanks so much for your detailed information. In fact, this method can apply to the Aussie M5 as well.
Your welcome!
Does Aussie move in a 20 pip beat or some sort too? Sounds cool. I haven't really looked at that yet. Since I like how my levels play out now, which get me more than 12 pips mostly.
For example I tried gbp/usd for a while with a 30 pip beat, but I didn't took enough time and energy in that pair to really trade it.
  • #17,382
  • Dec 2, 2012 1:58pm Dec 2, 2012 1:58pm
aud is trading higher prior to the market open - I'm hoping to see a gap up - because I do want to short audusd. The higher it goes now, the bigger are the odds of an interest cut on Tuesday, IMO.
  • #17,383
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:18pm Dec 2, 2012 3:18pm
Dec
opened already at : +/- 1.0436
not euphoria follower
  • #17,384
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:49pm Dec 2, 2012 3:49pm
Quoting redpip61
Only recently discovered this forum and thread. Very entertaining and informative. Keep up the good work.

Don't know enough to contribute anything useful yet, only recently concentrated my efforts on the Aud/Usd.

Do you think the anticipated rate cut has been priced in to any degree?

How many use gold, silver and brent oil as a guide?

RP.
redpip61, welcome aboard. You are welcome to post anything related to the Aussie. You may ask questions as well. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,385
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:56pm Dec 2, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting Stretch
Your welcome!
Does Aussie move in a 20 pip beat or some sort too? Sounds cool. I haven't really looked at that yet. Since I like how my levels play out now, which get me more than 12 pips mostly.
For example I tried gbp/usd for a while with a 30 pip beat, but I didn't took enough time and energy in that pair to really trade it.
AUDUSD M5 is in 15 to 20 pips average range during normal situations. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,386
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:57pm Dec 2, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting iqyu5an
Dec
opened already at : +/- 1.0436
We got what we expected even it's only 10 pips gap up.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,387
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:04pm Dec 2, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting maximmm
aud is trading higher prior to the market open - I'm hoping to see a gap up - because I do want to short audusd. The higher it goes now, the bigger are the odds of an interest cut on Tuesday, IMO.
The daily is bearish. I don't expect it to move to a very high level today for you to short. There may be a sell-off before RBA decision tomorrow. Then a thrust to the upside due to no cut. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,388
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:13pm Dec 2, 2012 4:13pm
Looking into human mentality, a sell-off before RBA decision makes more sense to me. If RBA still cuts rate, the further sell-off may be limited and could be followed by a strong bounce.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,389
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:16pm Dec 2, 2012 4:16pm
When everyone is looking for a rate cut, it will be priced in before RBA decision. At that point, selling the rumor is over and will be followed by buying the news. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,390
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:19pm Dec 2, 2012 4:19pm
Quoting DaddyBear
When everyone is looking for a rate cut, it will priced in before RBA decision. At that point, selling the rumor is over and will be followed by a buying after the news. IMO
Now, the Aussie is approaching the small red arrow. The small yellow arrow will take over at one point and brings it to LTL before RBA decision.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354375158
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,391
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:25pm Dec 2, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting DaddyBear
When everyone is looking for a rate cut, it will priced in before RBA decision. At that point, selling the rumor is over and will be followed by a buying after the news. IMO
Couldn't agree more the only thing that would really get this pair to sell off hard would be a cut greater than .25bps & that would probably be a short lived pullback as well lasting 2/3 days max. If RBA cuts .25bps which is expected we will probably see a drop of 50/75 pips max which will then probably be full retraced before the end of the next trading day.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,392
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:25pm Dec 2, 2012 4:25pm
"China Economy Still Grows But State Plays Heavy Role" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100267999)
-CNBC

This indicates China's rebound is artificial at best.


(http://www.cnbc.com/id/100267999)
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,393
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:27pm Dec 2, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting DaEdge
Couldn't agree more the only thing that would really get this pair to sell off hard would be a cut greater than .25bps & that would probably be a short lived pullback as well lasting 2/3 days max. If RBA cuts .25bps which is expected we will probably see a drop of 50/75 pips max which will then probably be full retraced before the end of the next trading day.
This scenario is likely.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,394
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:28pm Dec 2, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
"China Economy Still Grows But State Plays Heavy Role" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100267999)
-CNBC

This indicates China's rebound is artificial at best.
This is the reason I don't trust the economy news released by CCP.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,395
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:29pm Dec 2, 2012 4:29pm
The rebound from 1.040 on Friday is not over yet IMO. The red arrow has not been touched so far.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,396
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:40pm Dec 2, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting DaEdge
Couldn't agree more the only thing that would really get this pair to sell off hard would be a cut greater than .25bps & that would probably be a short lived pullback as well lasting 2/3 days max. If RBA cuts .25bps which is expected we will probably see a drop of 50/75 pips max which will then probably be full retraced before the end of the next trading day.
Ah, so a really big sell would only be if RBA were to turn negative in terms of an interest rate then?^^
  • #17,397
  • Edited 6:36pm Dec 2, 2012 4:44pm | Edited 6:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
There are 4 events tonight. These events will provide good trading opportunities for sure.

6:30pm AUD
MI Inflation Gauge m/m
7:30pm AUD
Retail Sales m/m
7:30pm AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

...
Here is what I am thinking. Down until 1830 EST. Up until 1930 EST. Time is of the essence.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,398
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:46pm Dec 2, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Looking into human mentality, a sell-off before RBA decision makes more sense to me. If RBA still cuts rate, the further sell-off may be limited and could be followed by a strong bounce.
Is everyone looking for a rate cut?

I actually think that while economists are looking for a rate cut, most retail traders are thinking that there won't be a cut due to fundamentals. Essentially, economic data coming from Australia is so good that there aren't many that are thinking of a big drop in aud PA and will buy dips as a consequence.

To be perfectly honest, I have no idea if there will be a rate cut - but if there will be one, I have major doubts that it will be anywhere near to being priced in - thus, there will be a big drop if the rate is cut.
  • #17,399
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:52pm Dec 2, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting maximmm
Is everyone looking for a rate cut?

I actually think that while economists are looking for a rate cut, most retail traders are thinking that there won't be a cut due to fundamentals. Essentially, economic data coming from Australia is so good that there aren't many that are thinking of a big drop in aud PA and will buy dips as a consequence.

To be perfectly honest, I have no idea if there will be a rate cut - but if there will be one, I have major doubts that it will be anywhere near to being priced in - thus, there will be a big drop if the...
Retail traders' thinking cannot move the market.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,400
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:58pm Dec 2, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting maximmm
Ah, so a really big sell would only be if RBA were to turn negative in terms of an interest rate then?^^
I think so. The current price levels don't warrant a major commitment of capital from smart money to get short. Keep in mind big banks layer in & out of there positions they don't hammer it all at 1 shot. The highs are much closer to the current price levels & the high would provide a much better RR for the big money that requires a larger range to establish there positions because of the size there trading.
It works till it doesn't
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