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  • #2,441
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:25am Nov 29, 2012 4:25am
Quoting Crassius
Call me crazy but I just closed this position and went flat at BE... My basis was 2949 after the last add at 1.2960, the 61.8% retrace...

I just sold @ 1.2985 against 3012 over the post Greek BS high....

I am unsure of where we are.... I fear a wave 4 bottom was put in at 2880, but am going to bet here.... higher than my last entry with much less at risk given the better entry that 2880 is either a wave 1 bottom, or possibly a wave A bottom.... ( B getting toping now leading to at leaast a C wave down....

I am always much more comfortable entering during the European session when I can see price action unfold during the most active parts of the day....
  • #2,442
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:29am Nov 29, 2012 4:29am
Equities uncomfortably bullish at the moment...
Bonds uncomfortably bullish all morning....

Oh well.. less than 30 pips risk..... if I'm wrong I'll soon know...
  • #2,443
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:30am Nov 29, 2012 8:30am
Quoting TauTrader
good day to you, sir

Should we reach those numbers mentioned above - I believe we will have a sweet long into 1.2963.

All the best with your trip. Take time and enjoy.

Regards
Good day,

1.2963 done...

Marking 1.2910 as a possible short target going forward. Will look for signal to go short when the time is right.

All the best

Regards
  • #2,444
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:04am Nov 29, 2012 9:04am
Quoting Crassius
I just sold @ 1.2985 against 3012 over the post Greek BS high....

I am unsure of where we are.... I fear a wave 4 bottom was put in at 2880, but am going to bet here.... higher than my last entry with much less at risk given the better entry that 2880 is either a wave 1 bottom, or possibly a wave A bottom.... ( B getting toping now leading to at leaast a C wave down....

I am always much more comfortable entering during the European session when I can see price action unfold during the most active parts of the day....

Stopped out -27 pips.....
  • #2,445
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:12am Nov 29, 2012 9:12am
Quoting Crassius
Stopped out -27 pips.....
thought about long aud/usd 1.0445ish and/or long g/j 131.35/40 given the broad advance from yesterday and last night but don't like the hesitant PA for either

au not following other pairs and indexes higher..........odd, imo........run up in the Nikki was muted too
  • #2,446
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:46am Nov 29, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Crassius
Stopped out -27 pips.....

You gotta love this game....

My stopped gets nicked by 2 pips on a little volatility from nearly useless housing data... and as if on que.... a fake cliff swoon comes over the market.....
  • #2,447
  • Edited 11:04am Nov 29, 2012 10:51am | Edited 11:04am
Long from 2955 Hourly Kumo top..... mostly betting market over reaction to predictable politician words....
  • #2,448
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:53am Nov 29, 2012 10:53am
Quoting Crassius
You gotta love this game....

My stopped gets nicked by 2 pips on a little volatility from nearly useless housing data... and as if on que.... a fake cliff swoon comes over the market.....

saw that, about 2 min after eu hit 1.3010........probably 2 more weeks of this politician FC headline driven up/down yoyo

the high eu looks tough

european indexes do not seem to care for the most part ...DAX CAC FTSE all running up to previous swing highs
  • #2,449
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:53am Nov 29, 2012 10:53am
100 HMA, Kumo top and Kijun Sen all converge near 2955....
  • #2,450
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:58am Nov 29, 2012 10:58am
Quoting roro53
........probably 2 more weeks of this politician FC headline driven up/down yoyo

My thoughts exactly..... I'm arguing with myself to call it a year already.... I wont trade the last two weeks of December anyway, and this bullshit knee jerk reaction to every news utterance is likely to be the picture right up to the end.....
  • #2,451
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:06am Nov 29, 2012 11:06am
Quoting Crassius
My thoughts exactly..... I'm arguing with myself to call it a year already.... I wont trade the last two weeks of December anyway, and this bullshit knee jerk reaction to every news utterance is likely to be the picture right up to the end.....
thinking the same about calling it a year and drift through december.........maybe scalp the DAX a bit here/there, but that's it

this is all over the board
  • #2,452
  • Nov 29, 2012 12:10pm Nov 29, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting tomspin
1,2808 & 1,2798 are the next two lines for current drop, will it last longer or continue lower?
Will check on friday before departure.
regards
Tom
Invalid
Went long from 70 right above monthly pivot, half position will add above 3060 if we'll get there, stops below today's low - fairly large but I don't want to be wiped out on some bs comments.
PS
Thanks TT I will - this one I will really enjoy
Keep sending those gems Rob, I really enjoy them
See you guys when I can
Kind regards
Tom
swing it!
  • #2,453
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:53pm Nov 29, 2012 3:53pm
Quoting Crassius
I just sold @ 1.2985 against 3012 over the post Greek BS high....

I am unsure of where we are.... I fear a wave 4 bottom was put in at 2880, .
Quoting Crassius
Stopped out -27 pips.....
I let my bias rule my mind and took a short in contradiction to the Elliott guideline that a wave C should be suspected to be a wave 3 when it exceeds 161.8% of wave A... and therefor wave A is really wave 1.

Although not a rule and therefor breakable, I chose the less probable count and burned myself on the trade.... for 27 pips, as I backed off last night and re-entered higher with less risk this morning....

One good thing about Elliott is it gives us concrete levels where we know for sure we are wrong..... That's invaluable as its a constant check on where the market really is.... If you are wrong Elliott lets you not only knw it promptly, but as in this case... often reveals a clearer picture in the process.

Attached is the count... pretty much cast in stone at this late stage.... EURJPY shows the same count in a cleaner pattern... and that helps to confirm EURUSD...

If we drop down from this hourly chart to a five minute chart, the sell off today which cemented the wave (i) top at 1.3014 and is forming wave (ii) of an expected five waves in aqua scale (the interior waves that make up the 5th wave of silver scale) may or may not be complete...

It satisfies the bare minimum retracement of 50%, and if we drop down to the five minute chart it clearly is in three waves as we would expect.... It clearly tested significant support which held and induced me to enter long at 2955....

But the three waves I can see on the five minute chart might be the interior 3 waves of a smaller scale.... We may need to drop one more time to but in three complete waves in the scale we are interested in marked in agua on the chart. The rising channel bottom should be respected and contain any farther downside, and as it rises any downside will be limited by it.

One thing we know for certain.... 1.2880 cannot be broken. It is inviolate. Stops should go below there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,454
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:56pm Nov 29, 2012 7:56pm
Just booked a bit of profit to cover my 27 pips loss from yesterday at 2990... still holding the rest from 2955 for another try above 1.3000... will most likely have to wait till Europe comes on line to get a real run at the stops that are above 3020....
  • #2,455
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:33pm Nov 29, 2012 8:33pm
EURJPY just flyin' EURUSD move fueled by the short squeeze/month end flows in EURJPY....

EURJPY up 65/70 pips since rollover to EURUSD 25/30 pips...
  • #2,456
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:46pm Nov 29, 2012 10:46pm





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  • #2,457
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:04am Nov 30, 2012 3:04am
The lowest target for completion of the wave 5 we are putting in since 1.2880 has been achieved at 1.3020.

This target is arrived at by realizing that wave 1 and wave 5 are often equal in length. Wave 1 was 140 pips.... wave 5's bottom is 1.2880 pips....

I think we have higher to go from the interior count of wave 5, but we must be aware that we are in the last wave up from 1.2662 and be on the look out to take some profit along the way, and be ready for the inevitable terminus of wave 5, and the ABC correction lower that will follow...
  • #2,458
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:11am Nov 30, 2012 3:11am
Let's see..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #2,459
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:14am Nov 30, 2012 3:14am
morning,

I haven't stopped by in a while and thought maybe I ought to

here is my current take on EU


The current daily upswing from 1.266x should be considered a correction to the swing down 1.313x to 1.266x and they rarely go beyond 78% and remain a correction that level is 1.303x so getting very close and I would not short above 1.3030 unless it was a random spike from news which could happen today... but it would be high risk to do so.

Stepping out a level I still see that we are in a correction of the up swing 1.204x to 1.317x and from where current price is I would target the low of 1.270x followed by the zone 1.256x to 1.243x (see chart 1) followed by 1.228x with continuance.

The upside danger is that it is still in the previous correction of the swing down 1.348x to 1.204x in which case I would target a double top at 1.317x (see chart 2)

To narrow down todays perspective - looking at the H4 (see chart 3) I see a 5 wave pattern in completion at current levels but with potentially 1.304x and 1.308x as targets - but I would put the later as less likely because of the previous reasons.

So taking all that into account my bias is still to the downside and I will concentrate on shorts below 1.3030 and may look to cautious longs above 1.3050

I trust that makes sense
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,460
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:23pm Dec 1, 2012 7:23pm
Morning.. another grey & rainy morning here at "Paradise Island"..

Since markets does not move in a straight line, any well thought-out short or medium term trade bias shared should not be discounted or interpreted as one way bets without retracement along the way.. There's money to be make in counter trend & trading with the long or short term bias.. how much we takes out of the market & how long we survive playing in this cesspool will depend on our risk temperament & MM playing skills..

Aside from scalping the market with good intraday setups, I believe M/T & Swing trades with the higher time frame bias offer better Profit to Noise band and enhance our odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time.. as when we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..

That being said, a multi-figure sub 1.26 correction for the Euro from here is possible.. but IMHO not likely before 1.32+ print.. a S/T retrace down to 1.2850~00 would inject additional liquidity.. but 1.2800 may be again the supporting "baseline in the sand" as in September & October for those looking for a retest of 1.32 ~1.35..

November Monthly closing M/T snapshot for EURUSD fwiw:
Weekly Buy Fractal & Monthly Hammer off 1.2660 & L/T Confluence zones..
Quarterly Up Fractal resolving M/T divergence..
M/T 1.35 may just be a hiccup en-route to 1.50 again..

EURUSD Quarterly @12012012:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture-20121201-004403 EURO Quarterly.png Size: 115 KB


Quoting MaxDoom
morning,

I haven't stopped by in a while and thought maybe I ought to

here is my current take on EU


The current daily upswing from 1.266x should be considered a correction to the swing down 1.313x to 1.266x and they rarely go beyond 78% and remain a correction that level is 1.303x so getting very close and I would not short above 1.3030 unless it was a random spike from news which could happen today... but it would be high risk to do so.

Stepping out a level I still see that we are in a correction of the up swing 1.204x to 1.317x and from...
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