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AUD/USD

  • #56,901
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:49am Nov 30, 2012 8:49am
Quoting Willow
wait.
i post here just to warn you to be careful if you are long, 3 times more careful than with other pairs.
i trade, i see charts but don'r post.
neither do i came here to show off as a great artist.


we can all imagine what's evil; a stock that is capable at any time to reverse any trend, no matter of how strong it looks, a stock that have resources to do that [RBA], etc, throu manipulation or so.

we have now RBA's need to print, as i said in my previous message, the uptrend started [short trend] which is fooling the masses, on one side, the...
We have Stop loss.
  • #56,902
  • Nov 30, 2012 9:53am Nov 30, 2012 9:53am
It tooks me one hour check charts,


Hahah, just be informed , when they are some in panic selling short, they are others buying dipper...

I stopped buying should I???? maybe it is time to lock some profits.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #56,903
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:54pm Nov 30, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting dab
Do you mean the recent high of 1.0490 or the high on daily chart at 1.0625 or all time high of 1.1080? (or other?)

The way I see it first could easily be hit with the right (or wrong, depending on your perspective words) about fiscal cliff. Second could be hit this year if RBA don't cut and there's positive info on fiscal cliff. I can't see the third being reached anytime soon (next 6 months) given RBA's comments that AUD is too high.
atleast 1.06
  • #56,904
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:57pm Nov 30, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Lol, nice welcome back i got from you.... Buddy, the account you see on my profile is a demo i use to test out my strategy..... Besides im not trading audusd on it....

I do however have short audusd at 1.0446 on my live account, about to take profit soon

Please spare me the negativity.
Besides u were one of those shouting for 1.06 like the rest of the ppl here....
I'm still shouting that ... while you were shouting parity and below remember.
  • #56,905
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:57pm Nov 30, 2012 7:57pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1354096187

this chart played out perfectly with the ABC retest I added near the top like some others here and added on 1.0441 now waiting for the RBA to seal the deal.
  • #56,906
  • Dec 1, 2012 1:44am Dec 1, 2012 1:44am
Quoting fxtyrant
Lol, nice welcome back i got from you.... Buddy, the account you see on my profile is a demo i use to test out my strategy..... Besides im not trading audusd on it....

I do however have short audusd at 1.0446 on my live account, about to take profit soon

Please spare me the negativity.
Besides u were one of those shouting for 1.06 like the rest of the ppl here....
hello.
If you don`t mind me asking, Who is your brokers?
bye.
  • #56,907
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:16am Dec 1, 2012 2:16am
I am dissapointed. This thread didn't work well as sentiment indicator as I expected.

Only -10 pips drop the silly girl already came out running while pulling up the skirt yelling 'I told you so'.

Extremely dissapointed. Oh well.
  • #56,908
  • Dec 1, 2012 4:32am Dec 1, 2012 4:32am
Quoting Ken A
I am dissapointed. This thread didn't work well as sentiment indicator as I expected.

Only -10 pips drop the silly girl already came out running while pulling up the skirt yelling 'I told you so'.

Extremely dissapointed. Oh well.
yea well when im on my winning streak, you probably dont want to use me as a contrarian trade indicator like you mentioned....
anyways i havent been posting on here much since well AUDUSD is boring.... no moves up and no moves down...... but one thing i can say is that theres an obvious range from 1.055x/9x to 0.98xx
and we are approaching the top of the range, so really better risk reward for me to short. problem is dont really know when the drop will happen but it will happen fast....something like a 500 pip drop over 3 day period

still posting on the GBPUSD thread.... BTW anyone know where wulfgar disappeared to?? no more trade ideas from him?? hehe poor guy cant use cloggie's trade signals anymore since coggie deactivated his twitter account LOL
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,909
  • Dec 1, 2012 3:27pm Dec 1, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting fxtyrant
yea well when im on my winning streak, you probably dont want to use me as a contrarian trade indicator like you mentioned....
anyways i havent been posting on here much since well AUDUSD is boring.... no moves up and no moves down...... but one thing i can say is that theres an obvious range from 1.055x/9x to 0.98xx
and we are approaching the top of the range, so really better risk reward for me to short. problem is dont really know when the drop will happen but it will happen fast....something like a 500 pip drop over 3 day period

still posting...
Do u know what will happen tp aud if rba doesnt cut rate on tuesday?
  • #56,910
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:58pm Dec 1, 2012 11:58pm
Ouch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ouchaudusd.jpg Size: 179 KB
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #56,911
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:18am Dec 2, 2012 3:18am
Quoting HelloOz
Do u know what will happen tp aud if rba doesnt cut rate on tuesday?
Sure, I know what's gonna happen.

Not! Despite being an Aussie...

If the rate is not cut .25% on Tuesday, I suppose we could expect a rally, but I doubt it won't be cut.

There are a lot of bears on here, but the Aussie will not soon be dropping in any sustained, trending way. There's way too much emphasis on this thread on Australia's domestic and ToT numbers, but this is long-term stuff, totally dwarfed by the global-financial reasons for the AUD price.

There is a huge amount of money relative to our economy out there in bond-holdings and capital reserves. It's a tight market out there for big funds, there are few AAA graded investments, and none of them pay as well as Aussie bonds atm, even with a 25bp cut in rates.

Moody's and the like are putting more AAA countries on the warning list every day. If these countries (UK, Germany, Netherlands etc...) get downgraded, the pool of AAA govt. bonds will shrink dramatically, placing further demand on the Aussie dollar.

Of course the price of the dollar is high, but that doesn't mean a bear run is around the corner. So no more talk please about this market being "over-priced". As good forex traders we ought to know there's no such thing as over-priced, it's all just money looking for money, day by day.
  • #56,912
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:23am Dec 2, 2012 3:23am
... Besides, I trade with an ECN broker that pays swaps, and I like to capture big trends. It's hard to sell a market for a big trend when the swap rate is nearly 3.5%!
  • #56,913
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:32am Dec 2, 2012 3:32am
Quoting Iro
Personally I love the rba rate decisions whether if its a cut or hold. If its a hold with the high % right now expecting a rate cut we'll get some action. If its a cut we'll get some action. Unlike other central banks the RBA releases the data right on the dot on the their website so we can scrape it right away and get a fill nearly instantly.

As for the tourism and manufacturing etc. The fx impact is overrated imo since tourism was even better when the dollar was @ 1.10 (b/c the global economy was in better shape). Manufacturing wasn't all...
Agree that lack of cut will give some action up but given I'm in the bear camp (I see more downside risk than upside potential and are willing and able to hold for long term) I was meaning action down. My bad for not explaining better.

Tourism - can't pretend I'm well educated as have never looked at any official figures, it's only a gut feel. When AUD is high it's not just about whether we get visitors from overseas but also that more Australians spend their money overseas on relatively cheap holidays rather than spending money in the local economy. I appreciate that tourists coming to Australia is a function of where the AUD is at relative to other currencies but also to where the global economy is at.

Manufacturing - may never have been that big in Australia but it's still an important cog. I work for a manufacturing company that used to be 500 or 600 employees as recently as 2006. We are now down to 100 odd. I know that we are not a big manufacturer but we are one of many small to mid companies supplying larger companies. When those companies can't export there is one level of impact. When overseas goods are so much cheaper because of a high AUD than there is more impact. Much of the job loss in manufacturing has been taken up by the mining boom. With the mining boom showing signs of peaking or even dropping there is a danger that unemployment will rise.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #56,914
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:34am Dec 2, 2012 3:34am
seasonal.... aud predicted up in december. So is stockmarket. I think this can happen with cut or no cut. As consumer sentiment this time around is of special importance, cant see batch of bad news coming in december. I expect cut.

aud not going down until TL at around 10530 is breached to scare out remaining doomsayers.

With further escalation of things in EU developing as I write, AU will be seen as true safe haven

See copper !
  • #56,915
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:55am Dec 2, 2012 3:55am
Quoting fxtyrant
yea well when im on my winning streak, you probably dont want to use me as a contrarian trade indicator like you mentioned....
anyways i havent been posting on here much since well AUDUSD is boring.... no moves up and no moves down...... but one thing i can say is that theres an obvious range from 1.055x/9x to 0.98xx
and we are approaching the top of the range, so really better risk reward for me to short. problem is dont really know when the drop will happen but it will happen fast....something like a 500 pip drop over 3 day period

still posting...
You have chart for analysis?
  • #56,916
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:57am Dec 2, 2012 3:57am
Quoting DrDiscretion
Sure, I know what's gonna happen.

Not! Despite being an Aussie...

If the rate is not cut .25% on Tuesday, I suppose we could expect a rally, but I doubt it won't be cut.

There are a lot of bears on here, but the Aussie will not soon be dropping in any sustained, trending way. There's way too much emphasis on this thread on Australia's domestic and ToT numbers, but this is long-term stuff, totally dwarfed by the global-financial reasons for the AUD price.

There is a huge amount of money relative to our economy out there in bond-holdings...
You have some excellent points as to why the AUD is high and as a current bear I need to reread your post more often to maintain perspective. That said I think it a huge call to say that "Aussie will not soon be dropping in any sustained, trending way". My first thought was refer to Greece, Spain, Europe in general or US Fiscal Cliff as drivers of possible risk off major move down (into mid 90s as seen this year and last). Later thought was that your key word may be sustained. Whilst some of these things may drive AUD down it is not going to keep it there. When the risk event disappears AUD will come back up.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #56,917
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:05am Dec 2, 2012 4:05am
AUD and NZD are temporary safe haven for large funds. AUD will see below parity if things are getting better in EZ and Fed won't announce another form of easing to replace or extend Operation Twist, Fiscal Cliff is solved and BOJ tighthen monetary policy after inflation target reached. And if China economy is going down the drain.
  • #56,918
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:15am Dec 2, 2012 4:15am
There are a couple of other considerations here. One, the RBA is collecting and holding foreign currencies because they will profit when the AUD does go down. So the RBA may be one of the big movers when they want to be. Of course us paeons do not know when this will be but what we do know is that there are a couple of major fundamentals influencing their decision. One, is China really turning the corner? Two, will the USA tax the rich or not? We won't know that by Tuesday. Three, will Europe keep spiraling downward?

As most know, when the RBA leaves the rate the same there is usually a short term rally in the AUD. There are some that say the rate cut is priced in or mostly so. However, the market makers can influence price either way - remember it is a negative sum game! Look at Friday as an example. German retail sales were worse than expected yet the EURUSD went up.
  • #56,919
  • Dec 2, 2012 12:53pm Dec 2, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting Ken A
I am dissapointed. This thread didn't work well as sentiment indicator as I expected.

Only -10 pips drop the silly girl already came out running while pulling up the skirt yelling 'I told you so'.

Extremely dissapointed. Oh well.
LOL
  • #56,920
  • Dec 2, 2012 1:07pm Dec 2, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting Ken A
AUD and NZD are temporary safe haven for large funds. AUD will see below parity if things are getting better in EZ and Fed won't announce another form of easing to replace or extend Operation Twist, Fiscal Cliff is solved and BOJ tighthen monetary policy after inflation target reached. And if China economy is going down the drain.
Anybody (BEARS) who is not factoring in the consequences of "QEIV" is going to be extremely disappointed this month! I don't understand how people are over looking this HUGE event which is going to weaken the USD yet again...

Here are two articles written by very credible financial research companies who have an excellent track record . They are right more than not and I definitely take what they write very seriously.

1) http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/bens-...50995?FIELD9=2

2) http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-dollar-cliff/


RBA Rate Cuts and Problems in Europe have nothing on what the FED can (and will) do at their next meeting! The FED's actions will trump any other monetary policy by any other central bank which is why I see more upward movement for the rest of this month for risk assets.
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