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AUD/USD

  • #56,861
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:49pm Nov 29, 2012 8:49pm
You know what would be funny? If the RBA holds and we shoot up 70 pips like last time.

Anyways got stopped yesterday for +90 pips so gonna stay flat until meeting.
  • #56,862
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:32pm Nov 29, 2012 10:32pm
Quoting Iro
You know what would be funny? If the RBA holds and we shoot up 70 pips like last time.

Anyways got stopped yesterday for +90 pips so gonna stay flat until meeting.
I'd find the RBA keeping rates on hold more depressing than funny because that would leave only US Fiscal cliff to give us some action in the next month or two unless Europe lights up again given no RBA meet in Jan.

Given that the longer AUD is high the more damage to manufacturing, tourism etc I suspect the harder it will fall in the future. Big question is when? (sorry to disappoint but I don't have the answer)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #56,863
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:46pm Nov 29, 2012 10:46pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
Willow read a book about forex.
let's focus on the pair

you know, i should write a book and then read it and follow what it says; that way, i would make money; i;m in lack of patiente and discipline
I'll shop after the drop
  • #56,864
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:53pm Nov 29, 2012 10:53pm
Quoting dab
I'd find the RBA keeping rates on hold more depressing than funny because that would leave only US Fiscal cliff to give us some action in the next month or two unless Europe lights up again given no RBA meet in Jan.

Given that the longer AUD is high the more damage to manufacturing, tourism etc I suspect the harder it will fall in the future. Big question is when? (sorry to disappoint but I don't have the answer)
hint after a new high
  • #56,865
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:01pm Nov 29, 2012 11:01pm
Quoting Willow
let's focus on the pair

you know, i should write a book and then read it and follow what it says; that way, i would make money; i;m in lack of patiente and discipline
Your chart please.
  • #56,866
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:12pm Nov 29, 2012 11:12pm
Quoting Willow
let's focus on the pair

you know, i should write a book and then read it and follow what it says; that way, i would make money; i;m in lack of patiente and discipline
I agree with that! The best book to read on FX is the one you write yourself from what you've learned (the hard way).
This pair is pissing me off. It's been crap for a while now. I'm not going to ditch it because every pair goes through a phase. I used to be a fan of just trading a select few pairs, but now I believe in diversity to stop me from taking stupid trades. At the moment E/A is a honey, and E/Y is trading like it used too after going through a bad spell. Maybe when the monthly candle closes we might get a move...but it's December.
Just venting, don't mind me.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,867
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:14pm Nov 29, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting bogus
I agree with that! The best book to read on FX is the one you write yourself from what you've learned (the hard way).
This pair is pissing me off. It's been crap for a while now. I'm not going to ditch it because every pair goes through a phase. I used to be a fan of just trading a select few pairs, but now I believe in diversity to stop me from taking stupid trades. At the moment E/A is a honey, and E/Y is trading like it used too after going through a bad spell. Maybe when the monthly candle closes we might get a move...but it's December.
Just...
why is this pair pissing you off?
  • #56,868
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:18pm Nov 29, 2012 11:18pm
There would be some serious backlash if they don't cut in Dec from the investment and business community. It will be a huge mistake that they will have to face mid 2013 when there forced to cut 50bps at a time for a couple meetings to play catch up
  • #56,869
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:21pm Nov 29, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting bogus
I agree with that! The best book to read on FX is the one you write yourself from what you've learned (the hard way).
This pair is pissing me off. It's been crap for a while now. I'm not going to ditch it because every pair goes through a phase. I used to be a fan of just trading a select few pairs, but now I believe in diversity to stop me from taking stupid trades. At the moment E/A is a honey, and E/Y is trading like it used too after going through a bad spell. Maybe when the monthly candle closes we might get a move...but it's December.
Just...
Aud/Usd is very predictable for me and follow technical analysis.Nice and easy to trade.
  • #56,870
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:26pm Nov 29, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
Aud/Usd is very predictable for me and follow technical analysis.Nice and easy to trade.
Your joking? It's range bound.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,871
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:28pm Nov 29, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting bogus
Your joking? It's range bound.
that is his point,
his trade is based on EWP,
  • #56,872
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:30pm Nov 29, 2012 11:30pm
Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2q.gif Size: 23 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,873
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:36pm Nov 29, 2012 11:36pm
Quoting bogus
Your joking? It's range bound.
Aud H1 EW Nice to trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud h1.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #56,874
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:49pm Nov 29, 2012 11:49pm
I don't use EW, open to too much interpretation to my mind, each to their own. What I am saying is AU used to flow, but now is "Jerky". I use a 15 pip stop on a 15 minute chart. I'll try and post both ea and au for comparison.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3q.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4q.gif Size: 19 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,875
  • Nov 30, 2012 12:07am Nov 30, 2012 12:07am
Quoting bogus
I don't use EW, open to too much interpretation to my mind, each to their own. What I am saying is AU used to flow, but now is "Jerky". I use a 15 pip stop on a 15 minute chart. I'll try and post both ea and au for comparison.
You have a good method for a trend market. For range you must have another method.IMO
  • #56,876
  • Nov 30, 2012 12:15am Nov 30, 2012 12:15am
Quoting Tim_isoara
You have a good method for a trend market. For range you must have another method.IMO
Thats the thing, thats the way i trade, so I think it's important for me to pick the Hot Hand.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,877
  • Nov 30, 2012 12:56am Nov 30, 2012 12:56am
Quoting sidhujag
hint after a new high
Do you mean the recent high of 1.0490 or the high on daily chart at 1.0625 or all time high of 1.1080? (or other?)

The way I see it first could easily be hit with the right (or wrong, depending on your perspective words) about fiscal cliff. Second could be hit this year if RBA don't cut and there's positive info on fiscal cliff. I can't see the third being reached anytime soon (next 6 months) given RBA's comments that AUD is too high.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #56,878
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:33am Nov 30, 2012 1:33am
that was an amazing head fake that just occurred
  • #56,879
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:51am Nov 30, 2012 1:51am
Quoting dab
I'd find the RBA keeping rates on hold more depressing than funny because that would leave only US Fiscal cliff to give us some action in the next month or two unless Europe lights up again given no RBA meet in Jan.

Given that the longer AUD is high the more damage to manufacturing, tourism etc I suspect the harder it will fall in the future. Big question is when? (sorry to disappoint but I don't have the answer)
Personally I love the rba rate decisions whether if its a cut or hold. If its a hold with the high % right now expecting a rate cut we'll get some action. If its a cut we'll get some action. Unlike other central banks the RBA releases the data right on the dot on the their website so we can scrape it right away and get a fill nearly instantly.

As for the tourism and manufacturing etc. The fx impact is overrated imo since tourism was even better when the dollar was @ 1.10 (b/c the global economy was in better shape). Manufacturing wasn't all that big in Australia to begin with. Mining is settled through long term contracts which has been sideways/slightly lower. Retailers benefit from higher aud and so do consumers like me who like to spend on Christmas.
  • #56,880
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:51am Nov 30, 2012 2:51am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Your chart please.
it is very bearish on the weekly and monthly chart.
some of the experts of the big funds can see it.
actual bearish technicals meet RBA need to print, to satisfy external demand for their currency.
but you can't have both things; print and bull...
the AUD have been kept at this level only by retailer which strongly believe [with good reason] in AUD potential.

sorry, i can't give numbers, forecasts or charts.
just recommendations' don't sleep too much if you are long and use low leverage and tight SL, IF YOU'RE LONG.

1.0465 at my last intervention.
1.0421 now, after the euro&bros went up...

Edit; forgot to say; AUD is evil ! It can reverse priority print/bull , bull/print, so it can go up again... Only the RBA knows what will be first; print or bull.
I'll shop after the drop
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