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  • #11,421
  • Nov 22, 2012 9:56am Nov 22, 2012 9:56am
Quoting Forexgogo
Very interesting. What are your SL and TP, if I may? I would never think of taking short at this point.... (I've been waiting for the PA to Fib76 & 107.00, but I'm not sure now seeing UJ just turned around at Fib 76=82.50)
Sorry, but I'm just so curious the way you trade
Hi,
I agree with you, it does look like catching a falling knife. Not the type that I would take up normally. I will exit early if I see completed 4hr candles opening and closing above the TL. Will re enter on FE 161. Just looking at now I may exit early,it
My entry point is around 1.06. SL is about 50 pips, but will monitor closely. TP is way down the channel, but will also monitor and will exit early depending on indecies as well as FE when down wave is confirmed. If you have a look at Japan 225 you will see similar pattern in the index. I have a short order at 9467 on it that hasn't hit yet. The hype is all about the election and the new leader and his policies. Either way whoever gets elected yen will strenghten in the short term.
I take many aspects into my trading. Technical and fundamental for short term trades as well as entry and astrological aspects for longer term and profit taking. What I post is mainly the trade with a chart and entry point. I do send my point of view via emails to a few traders on FF and we discuss by the end of the week
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,422
  • Nov 22, 2012 10:40am Nov 22, 2012 10:40am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi,
I agree with you, it does look like catching a falling knife. Not the type that I would take up normally. I will exit early if I see completed 4hr candles opening and closing above the TL. Will re enter on FE 161. Just looking at now I may exit early,it
My entry point is around 1.06. SL is about 50 pips, but will monitor closely. TP is way down the channel, but will also monitor and will exit early depending on indecies as well as FE when down wave is confirmed. If you have a look at Japan 225 you will see similar pattern in the index. I have...
tradoholic, Thank you very much for the explanation. When looking at stochas and RSI, the PA is exhausting ascending already, so, I wouldn't be surprised if the PA comes down. However, on a weekly chart, there is a possibility the PA going up another 200-300 pips next week -- a pattern called "3-consecutive positive candles" see last February. Anyway, I will be watching this pair very closely....
  • #11,423
  • Nov 22, 2012 1:34pm Nov 22, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
Well, as you know trend depends on the TF you're looking at. As mentioned, daily down against .8060 and 4hr up against .8010, so pretty much mixed in near term. I switched to long considering 4hr S @ .8010 holding up, waiting to see the PA at .8060 level. I'll post EU and GU analyses later on if you're interested, had to run now.
I'm interested
I need your Analysis about EUR/GBP ; EUR/USD & GBP/USD Pairs. Need use 3 Pairs, because that's Currencies inter-connected

I will patient for these...
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #11,424
  • Edited 6:08pm Nov 22, 2012 4:43pm | Edited 6:08pm
Hi guys !

I have been lurking around for a while now and thought that thread may be a good place to introduce myself...
I have traded for 1 year now, but spent most of it with algos and EAs.. I had some success... but it's very slow and quite irregular... Also I like staring at charts too... So after studying hard (thanks Babypips and TradingArsenal), I started trading manually 1-2 months ago... As of now, I haven't lost money, which is good... But I haven't earned much either... I think to understand fairly well technical analysis, but my main weakness is the emotional part... Still a lot of room to improve, and hopefully I can benefit from the experience of others here at FF... Actually I already made some pips thanks to your posts

Meanwhile, I stumbled across this setup on EURAUD... Looks like a bearish rising wedge (only two touch on the upper side though) is forming on H1-H4... along with a RSI divergence...
There was a nice bearish engulfing candle 4 hours ago... I entered at 1.2397 two small positions, one targeting 1.2364 (bottom of the wedge) and the other 1.2170 (last low from 13-14 nov)... I put a stoploss for both at 1.243... Now, fingers crossed I will be carefully watching the second order, as the breakout may depend on EUR news next monday...

Any comment is welcome, as I'm here to learn...

Cheers !
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  • #11,425
  • Nov 22, 2012 5:34pm Nov 22, 2012 5:34pm
excellent article by Bruce Krasting....this thing (QE r squared), whether i or others disagree with it or not, is just getting lined up.......not a deal to fade imho

also, the takeaway from BB's speech yesterday; not taking away the punch bowl...

"And that is exactly what will happen in December. The Fed will do QE#4, it will result in an additional $40+B per month of Fed buys. Along with QE#3, that means the Fed will be monetizing debt to the tune of $85B a month ($2mm a minute, 24/7). When QE#3 and #4 is ending, we will have QE#s 5 and 6."

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...1-22/evergreen

"Janet Yellen spoke a week ago, she talked Evergreen:

The three elements of forward guidance that were adopted by the FOMC in September 2012 would have been unthinkable in 1992 and greatly surprising in 2002, but they have, in my view, become a centerpiece of appropriate monetary policy.

Right. What was, not so long ago, "unthinkable", is now the "centerpiece". These people are actually proud of this "accomplishment".

Then Bernanke spoke, Evergreen was his message too:

we expect that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.

In other words, there is no scenario for an end to printing.

And finally, today, the WSJ's ace reporter, Jon Hilsenrath, has an interview with Federal Reserve President John Williams. The message? More Evergreen talk.

Conceptually you could imagine some upper limit to this but I don't think we're getting anywhere near it.

On whether the Fed could stop monetizing any time soon?

Stopping or scaling back would be "counterproductive" for the economy."

  • #11,426
  • Edited 8:15pm Nov 22, 2012 5:54pm | Edited 8:15pm
In the other hand, one may also have seen on H1 an opportunity to buy in what may be seen as a bullish channel... Oh wait.. did I just sell right above a strong support (blue box) ..
A first post with a bad setup feels a bit awkward
EDIT: closed for a few pip loss because of the H1 channel and because the price came back above the support (blue box)
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  • #11,427
  • Nov 22, 2012 6:08pm Nov 22, 2012 6:08pm
good luck with your trading future......take a look at B Krastings article, Evergreen......worth the read

Quoting FXDub
Hi guys !

I have been lurking around for a while now and thought that thread may be a good place to introduce myself...
I have traded for 1 year now, but spent most of it with algos and EAs.. I had some success... but it's very slow and quite irregular... Also I like staring at charts too... So after studying hard (thanks Babypips and TradingArsenal), I started trading manually 1-2 months ago... As of now, I haven't lost money, which is good... But I haven't earned much either... I think to understand fairly well technical analysis, but my...
  • #11,428
  • Nov 22, 2012 6:24pm Nov 22, 2012 6:24pm
Quoting FXDub
In the other hand, one may also have seen on H1 an opportunity to buy in what may be seen as a bullish channel... Oh wait.. did I just sell right above a strong support (blue box) ..
A first post with a bad setup feels a bit awkward
Hahaha nice one! "If it were easy they'd be no one sweeping the streets" Sounds like you're doing ok compared to a lot of new people. Keep going and remember to focus on what you are doing rather than what you want to get as an outcome! Happy trading to you.
  • #11,429
  • Nov 22, 2012 7:26pm Nov 22, 2012 7:26pm
@roro53
Thanks for the encouragements... I'll take a look to the article... Fundamentals and market psychology are another of my weaknesses..

@Hyperion
"If it were easy they'd be no one sweeping the streets"
Definitely... I remember at the very beginning I was like "FX looks easy... and I'm gonna make some easy money"...But in another hand, I always had this statement in mind "95% people loose money on the FX market"...And I could see on some forums people wasting LOTS of money (with crappy EAs for instance...) I took this paradox as a big red warning... It probably saved me a lot of money and made me understand that FX was actually needed a lot of work... So I worked... at the beginning, like many others, dozens of indicators and systems... then the real stuffs: money management, support/resistance, candle patterns, pivots and fibo, harmonic and charts patterns (now I know how powerful those tools are, I actually wonder why people endlessly try to invent new systems...)

But I still have a long way to go on the emotionnal side... Fear/greed and the like... Look... Yesterday, I took a USDCHF short... Quickly after it made a huge spike down... I was in profit for 2 hours... I think I should have closed because of that weird PA.. I did not and it ended up in little loss... Today... with AUDUSD... I moved SL to BE to quickly and it was hit... And even if I do most mistakes only once, there is always a new one to do And the result is that my equity is stalling and my profit factor around 1.10... Now with that trade EURAUD I don't know anymore... I feel like closing it (as of now, that would be a 3 pip loss.. not a big deal) because of that upward channel and support... I do that a lot and often realize a while after that the first idea was the good one...

No.. definitely FX is the "hardest way to make easy money"... But besides money, that's a interesting challenge, for both intellectual and personal aspects...
  • #11,430
  • Nov 22, 2012 9:37pm Nov 22, 2012 9:37pm
Yup agree all that, but it's an all absorbing fascinating challenge which you never stop learning. For 20 years I advise clients (old school phone broking) and found I could give everyone exactly the same advice and tried mighy hard to get them all to execute it the same way BUT all their results were different, some lost some won... I concluded there is a lot of destiny to this. You don't have to be smart or clever... as a certain book says:

"The race is not to the swift
or the battle to the strong,
nor does food come to the wise
or wealth to the brilliant
or favor to the learned;
but time and chance happen to them all"

So keep shooting the arrow at your target and focus on the action not the bullseye. (Japanese archery analogy)

Holy cow sorry, few too many JD and Cokes here...

Back to thread Aussie Dollar I think this year has traced out an almost perfrect distribution in terms of market profile and it in=s now complete, totally full, and has to make a big move one way or the other. I am betting down simply because of an extremely long market positioning.

Best wishes everyone I'm off trout fishing for a week at the bottom of a live volcanoe that's just blown it's top!
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  • #11,431
  • Nov 22, 2012 9:39pm Nov 22, 2012 9:39pm
Sorry badly written... I meant to say I am betting on the downside. Multi month move to .9400 hopefully, then I want to fill my boots on a long commodities currency / china consumption trade.
  • #11,432
  • Nov 23, 2012 8:00am Nov 23, 2012 8:00am
EU Getting closer
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  • #11,433
  • Nov 23, 2012 8:33am Nov 23, 2012 8:33am
How about GU??
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  • #11,434
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:43pm Nov 23, 2012 12:43pm
Saxon & shahab8b

I have read this entire thread. It took me good two weeks but it's well worth the time. What I've learned from this tread really empowers my own trading style. Thank you very much!

Here some useful summary for new comers.

Saxon General Method
#1164
#5274
#10690

Drawing Fibo
#3442
#10055
#11200

Drawing Fib Extension
#10894

Examples (Charts)
Page 668-9 -- A catalog of different patterns

SL in general
#10064

Shahab8b Divergence
#11311

Shahab8b Trading Model
#11298
  • #11,435
  • Nov 25, 2012 8:39am Nov 25, 2012 8:39am
@ForexGogo
Thanks for the summary of the thread... That was indeed worth reading !
About EURUSD... here is my chart... I'm not sure where we are headed to (I read somewhere EURUSD is very "news driven" at the moment), yet that's a beautiful chart :nerd:
The crab pattern is close to ideal...
Classic fibo level gives me various levels depending on the high I select, so I chose fibo fan, which is here a bit more consistent... I used blue rectangles (rather than lines) and red arrows for potential resistance areas... Indicators are clearly overbought but show no sign of reversal as of now...

PS/ The number of attachments I'm allowed to post seems very limited... Looks like I'm already at the maximum and I may have to delete older charts.. Is that because I'm a junior member ?
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  • #11,436
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:02pm Nov 29, 2012 4:02pm
Hi All,
Just taken another short on AU. Chart is self explanatory. Been working with FE levels that have played out pretty well.
Been Short on EJ as well as my first short was stopped out, taken a second one from 107 as per my previous chart, my target is on the lower side of the channel. Still same chart is valid, atm SL=BE, but clear upward break of 1.0660 will make me re think the position.
Anybody else there with me on AU?

On the fundamentals:
1. AU economy is further deteriorating.
2. Metals are coming off the heat, so there will have to be an ease in the monitory policy to help boost SMEs
2a. everybody now is well aware of the dangers of two tiered economy that Australia has been running for the past few years. Ther will have to be some measures incorporated to combat this. Lowering the interest rate is one factor that I think will start to come in.
3. Inflation and the risk is therefore under control
4. On tuesday RBA is to announce their base rate decision. I think given all the factors existing in the market, and new political factors as well, there would be atleast a .25 reduction in the interest rate.

Based on these factors one can take a calculated risk of building positions up until Tuesday.
AU is known for its demand on the weekends due to carry trades. I think this week this will be taken off the heat because of the hype in the indecies at the moment, so that risk is also reduced.
Any thoughts?
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,437
  • Edited 4:49pm Nov 29, 2012 4:29pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting tradoholic
Been Short on EJ as well as my first short was stopped out, taken a second one from 107 as per my previous chart, my target is on the lower side of the channel.
tradohilic

As for EJ, your taking short would be a brilliant trade! I would say it may come down to 101 where the last break occurred. (I got short at 106.50).

Here is my reasoning. When you look at crossJPY, GBP, AUD, and CAD the price is losing the momentum and making lower highs on 4H. To me, it looks like falling off the cliff --actually I see hidden divergences. I believe EJ can be the same. (Probably, it's because Japan's future fiscal policies are getting so unclear with the election.)

Well, we will see
  • #11,438
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:52pm Nov 29, 2012 4:52pm
hi T,

thought about a long a/u last night post NY close thinking it might rally along with the equity indexes, but the PA has been odd especially given the ramp from just after midnight EST and the follow on in Europe with all indicies up solidly.

the Nikki had a muted response also, but the au was DEFINITELY flat as a board...

the dollar index held up too.....another odd play given the rally yesterday and last night...

probably 2, 3 or 4 more weeks of yoyo driven by political rhetoric over the fiscal deal so may play close to the sidelines until year end.

the European indexes Dax, CAC, FTSE are all up at swing highs so another anomaly in the broader picture..........if the buying holds that may imply the ES NQ Dow Russel have a ways to run...

this starts hitting the markets mid December ; "The (FED's QE) next big round of MBS settlements will be in the week of December 12-20- over $70 billion."

just in time for 2013

Quoting tradoholic
Hi All,
Just taken another short on AU. Chart is self explanatory. Been working with FE levels that have played out pretty well.
Been Short on EJ as well as my first short was stopped out, taken a second one from 107 as per my previous chart, my target is on the lower side of the channel. Still same chart is valid, atm SL=BE, but clear upward break of 1.0660 will make me re think the position.
Anybody else there with me on AU?

On the fundamentals:
1. AU economy is further deteriorating.
2. Metals are coming off the heat, so there will have to be...
  • #11,439
  • Dec 8, 2012 9:26pm Dec 8, 2012 9:26pm
In case any one is interested. I'll be looking for a NZDJPY short set up at a resistance zone between 68.9-69.5.
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Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #11,440
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:01pm Dec 9, 2012 1:01pm
Once Pivs get reset in a few hours, I'll get some charts up
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