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  • #4,101
  • Edited 5:03pm Nov 27, 2012 1:44pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting A.w.o.l
I've just deleted a few of my recent posts guys as I realised that whilst you do need to leave your settings as is for as long as possible, I have done some extensive research into various settings and found mine to be inadequate for the type of trading I'm looking to do which is one trade only CZ's.

I was interested to find out that there are two ways of drastically increasing that trade 1 percentage (tested on GU only using 100 day look back).....and of course various brokers will throw up various results but I have found that:

1) You can...
First i would like to thank you to share your settings. I don't do martingaling and i recommend, as a "friend", anybody not to use it.

Personnaly i use 30 pips x 30 bars on GBPUSD which was not too bad for first trade too. I am not the sole user of this setting.

BUT

My thought (and this may not be the case of everyone, don't hesitate to have your own judgment) is that 100 days back doesn't make any sense for me. Why ? Because i think we are talking of price action. And price action is NOW, related to actual news and events, not 100 days back.

How can i prove that ?

My own assessment (but, please, i am not a guru ! this is just a feeling i'd like to share, everybody can make mistakes !) is that since the end of the week of US elections the market has changed his face. Lack of volatility like monday and today (market is ranging between two bounds) is a new behaviour we have to deal with. So SSBO may not work everyday with ease that kind of market.

So, yes, with my settings i had 80% of good first trades between 100 days back and 3 weeks back, but since 3 weeks, i am down to 60% and i don't know what will be next week.

So now i am really disappointed wether it is really usefull to consider big periods in the past or not... I feel this is only an 'indication'.

I am live trading only since 4 weeks but "older" live traders can give us their feedback wether or not the market can return back to the happy days (if they experienced it).

This return of experience would help a lot !
  • #4,102
  • Edited 4:04pm Nov 27, 2012 2:05pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting lt_forex
First i would like to thank you to share your settings. I don't do martingaling and i recommend, as a "friend", anybody not to use it.

Personnaly i use 30 pips x 30 bars on GBPUSD which was not too bad for first trade too. I am not the sole user of this setting.

BUT

My thought (and this may not be the case of everyone, don't hesitate to have your own judgment) is that 100 days back doesn't make any sense for me. Why ? Because i think we are talking of price action. And price action is NOW, related to actual news and events, not 100 days...
I think you are quite right and yes, it is only an indication. The market does change over time but does tend eventually to revert. This is one reason I tend to trade multiple pairs and multiple methods and not just one pair as, say, GU. FXH has stated many times that the 100 day look back is essentially curve fitted from the time you change settings so does not reveal the same as a forward test would. However, it is the best place to start, as the old adage says, past behaviour is the most likely predictor (some say best) of future behaviour. I expressed that view way back that (for me) only forward testing would really be relevant. However, I would not worry too much about a few days just at the moment with all that is going on in the world. There will be flat or ranging periods but that is the beauty of SSBO. It will start catching the breakouts when the market starts to move again.
  • #4,103
  • Nov 27, 2012 5:41pm Nov 27, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting A.w.o.l
I've just deleted a few of my recent posts guys as I realised that whilst you do need to leave your settings as is for as long as possible, I have done some extensive research into various settings and found mine to be inadequate for the type of trading I'm looking to do which is one trade only CZ's.

I was interested to find out that there are two ways of drastically increasing that trade 1 percentage (tested on GU only using 100 day look back).....and of course various brokers will throw up various results but I have found that:


Oh and perhaps...
Hi AWOL,

Seems you and I have the same objectives, though i will push it to two trades if I the 2nd is 75% or above. I want a golden rule of 1:1 minimum but struggle a bit finding settings so was good to read your post.
  • #4,104
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:35pm Nov 27, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting hxtrader
Hi AWOL,

Seems you and I have the same objectives, though i will push it to two trades if I the 2nd is 75% or above. I want a golden rule of 1:1 minimum but struggle a bit finding settings so was good to read your post.
Like AWOL, yourself, and several others, I too am trading Trade1 only on 3 pairs and Trade1 & 2 on another pair. My observations echo AWOL in that when tuned to Trade1 only, any subsequent trades have very poor percentages. The one pair I have for Trades 1 & 2 are only because I have settings that generated a 74% and 80% respectively.

I do understand FH's recommendation to hold your settings for many weeks to see how a 100 day shift register alters over time as each new bar starts, one bar is thrown off the tail end. But..for me personally, it just makes sense in my mind to tune as necessary to keep my single trade percentages at 75% or greater. Only time moving forward will tell. So far my settings have held up for almost 2 weeks untouched.

Just thought I'd share my thoughts on the subject.

MM
Wherever PA Goes ~I Go
  • #4,105
  • Edited 1:32pm Nov 28, 2012 4:56am | Edited 1:32pm
Thanks for sharing !

I am not convinced anyway...

If you let the indicator "run" for 100 or 60 days, i understand that the 50 back CZs, for example, will be in that case very well defined because it was formed during a live price action, with live CZs before it.

But remains the idea that the price action 60 or 100 days days back has few to do with today.

And we can monitor this, as FXH said, by monitoring the percentage of first good trades for example, without changing the setup.

Does it satisfies me ? No. I'd prefer having good trades than seeing my percentage falling without short-term action.

Maybe the best is not to trade at all, this will cut losses during these periods.
  • #4,106
  • Nov 28, 2012 10:36pm Nov 28, 2012 10:36pm
These are the percentages (almost same setup than A.w.o.l).

- 100 days back
- 21 days back
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  • #4,107
  • Nov 28, 2012 11:46pm Nov 28, 2012 11:46pm
Just 9p over 37 bars, and coming after that amazing revenge arc. Incredible..
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,108
  • Edited 7:10am Nov 29, 2012 4:05am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting forexhard
Just 9p over 37 bars, and coming after that amazing revenge arc. Incredible..
I draw my boxes manually and do not use indicator , so please explain to me where did this +146 pips come after all on your chart?
  • #4,109
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:28am Nov 29, 2012 4:28am
G/U is still playing yoyo, E/U was the winner this morning:
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  • #4,110
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:12am Nov 29, 2012 5:12am
Quoting lt_forex
These are the percentages (almost same setup than A.w.o.l).

- 100 days back
- 21 days back
Alas, completely different set up to mine as yours is not geared towards the one trade. You have multiple trades per box, I have just one. Selecting 1 trade per box MAKES A MASSIVE DIFFERENCE and alters your win ratio massively. You have 0 closes outside buffer...I have 3.....for my settings this drastically increases win ratio on the first trade....

Not to mention your spread is lower which makes a huge difference obviously.
  • #4,111
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:12am Nov 29, 2012 7:12am
Quoting A.w.o.l
Alas, completely different set up to mine as yours is not geared towards the one trade. You have multiple trades per box, I have just one. Selecting 1 trade per box MAKES A MASSIVE DIFFERENCE and alters your win ratio massively. You have 0 closes outside buffer...I have 3.....for my settings this drastically increases win ratio on the first trade....

Not to mention your spread is lower which makes a huge difference obviously.
There are a lot of variables. I've got one setting which returns 90% winning 1st trades but thats using 26 bars closed, which I imagine makes the RR rather horrific (I would be ecstatic to be shown otherwise). My personal 'Grail' is as follows

1:1 RR
75% + winning 1st trades, (possibly 75%+ winning 2nd trade)
More than a dozen trades per 100 days
  • #4,112
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:40am Nov 29, 2012 7:40am
Quoting hxtrader
There are a lot of variables. I've got one setting which returns 90% winning 1st trades but thats using 26 bars closed, which I imagine makes the RR rather horrific (I would be ecstatic to be shown otherwise). My personal 'Grail' is as follows

1:1 RR
75% + winning 1st trades, (possibly 75%+ winning 2nd trade)
More than a dozen trades per 100 days
The interesting comparison with my two results is that despite a higher win ratio...the higher range settings produce fewer pips...that is purely down to r:r...your using bigger stops and thus take a bigger hit when you get stopped out....the other setting is actually misleading in its output....its showing a high number of CZ's per week but in actual fact, a fair few of those are redundant CZ's i.e. they get drawn, price goes out of them and then returns before the third close and then when price consolidates again, another one is formed.

You do get more trades but your stops are smaller so although your win rate is less, you end up making up for that with a better r:r....its a pick your poison scenario.
  • #4,113
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:58am Nov 29, 2012 7:58am
Another quick SSBO scalp. Kaching for 18 pips and I am off to work my day job. Wish I could live on less sleep like FxH.
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  • #4,114
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:24am Nov 29, 2012 8:24am
Quoting A.w.o.l
The interesting comparison with my two results is that despite a higher win ratio...the higher range settings produce fewer pips...that is purely down to r:r...your using bigger stops and thus take a bigger hit when you get stopped out....the other setting is actually misleading in its output....its showing a high number of CZ's per week but in actual fact, a fair few of those are redundant CZ's i.e. they get drawn, price goes out of them and then returns before the third close and then when price consolidates again, another one is formed.

You...
Indeed, a 2:1 (67%) win ratio at 1:1 RR against a 3:1 (75%) at RR of 1:0.75

on 12 trades the first delivers a net 4% gain (1% risk per trade) the second delivers 4.5%

It's a fascinating excercise finding the right settings, time consuming but rewarding when you find it.
  • #4,115
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:47am Nov 29, 2012 8:47am
I'm a few days in to my 100 day analysis on 4 pairs. I've attached a daily chart for GBPUSD which I refer to occassionaly. On it I have drawn 4 boxes which roughly correspond to 4 different types of price zones, 2 x strong up/down moves, 1 x sideways rangebound (more or less) market and finally one downward 'rangebound' move (the most recent one). Why am i posting this chart? Well, it was when I was thnking about the 100 daysback setting on my SSBO charts.

Obviously my results change over time as CZ's form and drop off the end. I suspect that (and I am very much hoping that my 100 day analysis bears this out) different SSBO settings will deliver better results depending on what type of market we are in. So what I will also be doing is slicing the 100 days into these blocks or zones of price action to determine which settings work best under which conditions.

I suppose I'm seeing myself as a football coach, I have a squad of players and I play the best ones under certain conditions, substituting one for another if conditions change. So I will probably end up with 2 or 3 different settings or at least an indication of when to pull a 'player' from the field if i know (daily) price has entered a zone which doesn't suit the player.

Maybe it's my geeky background but when I see that sideways rangebound market I have to know specifically how my current settings perform during that 42 day period.
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  • #4,116
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:02am Nov 29, 2012 9:02am
Quoting hxtrader
I'm a few days in to my 100 day analysis on 4 pairs. I've attached a daily chart for GBPUSD which I refer to occassionaly. On it I have drawn 4 boxes which roughly correspond to 4 different types of price zones, 2 x strong up/down moves, 1 x sideways rangebound (more or less) market and finally one downward 'rangebound' move (the most recent one). Why am i posting this chart? Well, it was when I was thnking about the 100 daysback setting on my SSBO charts.

Obviously my results change over time as CZ's form and drop off the end. I suspect that...
I could be wrong here and if I am then someone will correct me, but this triggers the post from FXH in mind about the market stages of Greed, Fear and caution....

"Post 841"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4911171&highlight=greed#post4911171

It kind of correlates to what your trying to show there on the daily timeframes....

You can apply the same logic to the 15 min timeframe....5 min...whatever...its the same principle.

Again correct me if I'm wrong FXH or more experienced members...
  • #4,117
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:24am Nov 29, 2012 10:24am
1+2 later. Not a huge score, but I'll take every pip I can get from the Big Dogs, no questions asked.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,118
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:55am Nov 29, 2012 10:55am
@ AWOL & HxT, I always try to break a question down to it's simplest, most macro form when ever possible. Take your recent comments and questions regarding the best settings, for example. There's no need to spend (waste?) dozens of hours tweaking settings and second-guessing when I can answer every one of your questions and concerns by going over that last pic I just posted of the closed set that started with a 9-pip tall CZ. What ever we learn from this one macro example can be translated into larger CZ's, or larger TF's, by basic extrapolation and logic. And again, it's so simple it's hard. As always, the hard part is letting go and finally understanding and accepting just how little control we have over our charts.

So that last CZ was just 9p tall, with a 2.5 Buffer, which means a minimum risk of 11.5p, plus what ever my MinBar=1 adds in. It was 2p in this case, so my total risk was 13.5p per reversal. Which is great, at least theoretically, because anyone can survive a 13p loss, right? And when you remember that most set-ups are about 10-15p larger than this one, 13.5p starts to look very interesting, even unique. I mean, over the course of this thread I think I've only been able to show just one other CZ as small as this one (on G/U M15).

But here's the catch (there's always a catch, right?): A shorter pattern means less risk and that my lower-than-average TP is easier to reach, but it also means that my stops are that much easier to hit.

It's a classic Catch-22: Which part of the equation is the one I should pay the most attention to: The fact that I can reach TP faster than normal, or the fact that I can be stopped out easier than normal?
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,119
  • Nov 29, 2012 2:07pm Nov 29, 2012 2:07pm
It's a classic Catch-22: Which part of the equation is the one I should pay the most attention to: The fact that I can reach TP faster than normal, or the fact that I can be stopped out easier than normal?[/quote]

The question wasn't specifically addressed to me, and I am still going to throw my two cents in the ring.

This is one question I have been struggling with for an answer. An easier to hit stop and take profit has more inherant risk because one candle can take you out and then put you in on the reversal break close, and then the next candle can take you out again. And the market will have moved a few pips in either direction. My answer today, though it may change in the future, is to not change anything and except the risk. If I am going to second guess the market, I am forcing the trade instead of letting the trade come to me. That begins a downward spiral that can screw up the next couple of trades. I would rather have my mental capital intact than the mental gyrations from the loss of a few pips that would be no greater than the risk on a normal trade.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #4,120
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:26pm Nov 29, 2012 5:26pm
Simply my 2 cents...

As FH put it in post #4118 "As always, the hard part is letting go and finally understanding and accepting just how little control we have over our charts."

I commented in earlier posts that I soon realized this would be my greatest challenge, but has started to ease as each week passes. Letting go of what you once believed in, is most difficult. The first several weeks using this system, I spent hours and hours analyzing and dissecting my charts even after I had found very satisfying sweet spots for 4 pairs. Even up until early last week I could show you my documented lost trades in my journal where my notes reference "Thinking again cost you money!!"

My journal for the start of this week was titled "Absolutely No Thinking For 5 Days!" I'm sure for some here that has been easier than for others (and I truly mean that in a good way). For me it has been very difficult.

Long story short, this week, thus far, No thinking, taking each trade as it was offered, 6 TP's and 1 SL over four pairs!

Each day is still a challenge trying not to "think I know what will happen next", but the "letting go" is coming.

FH could not have presented an easier trading system, as he's said many times, "it's so easy it's hard." So very true.

MM
Wherever PA Goes ~I Go
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