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Extreme TMA System

  • #13,701
  • Nov 24, 2012 4:25am Nov 24, 2012 4:25am
Just Fade it

I don't like to be Biased but objectivity and reality oblige, if we aspire to become true and Professional Traders we should be objective and not get married to our trades and yes i have some EU shorts but for the sake of the truth and even if it suits my Trading Account we should not be afraid or taking by the media rush (“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
― Warren Buffett), we should relax, be calm and assess the situation to see clearly and realize that the EU spike that we had last Friday is not based on any concrete Technicals or Fundamentals coming From Europe or from The US (Fiscal Cliff still lingers, EU Budget is not approved yet and there is no agreement yet on the Greece bailout) so just Fade it, i know i did.

Under different circumstances, a EURUSD break above 1.2825 would have represented a perfect short-term trade setup. Had the technical breakout come on news of a definitive resolution of Greece's funding troubles, it would have offered the necessary mix of technical catalyst and fundamental follow through to run for a few hundred pips. However, our actual conditions reflect a move higher due to a drop in speculative participation. We discuss the drop in activity heading into the US holiday period and what it means for trading for the rest of the week (as well as into 2013).

Have a good weekend, Regards.
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,702
  • Nov 24, 2012 4:44am Nov 24, 2012 4:44am
Good to read and follow.

A Native American Code of Ethics from Shaman Cloud & the FireBear.

1. Rise with the Sun to pray. Pray alone and pray often. The Great Creator Spirit will listen when you speak. Find the peace that comes from being alone.

2. Be tolerant of those who are lost on their paths. Ignorance, conceit, jealousy, anger and greed stem from lost souls. Pray that they find guidance.

3. Search for yourself by yourself. Do not allow others to make your path for you. It is your road and yours alone. Others may walk it with you, but no one can walk it for you.

4. Always give your best to others; your company gets the best bed, blanket and food. Treat them with respect and honour.

5. Do not take anything that is not yours. If something was not earned or given it is not yours.

6. Respect all of the things that are placed upon this Earth. People, animals, plants and rocks are all children of the Great Creator Spirit. Honour their place in the chain of life. We are all interconnected.

7. Honour other people’s thoughts wishes and words. Give each person your attention and allow them expression. When you give an idea away, you no longer own it. If someone uses your idea, you take no credit. If someone doesn’t use your idea you take no offense. Your ideas are no longer yours as soon as you give them away.

8. Practice Optimism. If you put negative energy into the Universe, it will multiply and return to you. All people make mistakes. Mistakes can be forgiven. Bad thoughts cause illness of body, mind and spirit.

9. Nature is not for us, it is part of our sacred family. Live in balance with all of nature. Tread softly on Mother Earth.

10. Children are the seeds of our future. Plant love in their hearts and water them with wisdom and life’s lessons. When they are grown, give them space to be themselves.

11. Be truthful at all times. Honesty is the test of one’s will within the Universe.

12. Keep yourself balanced. Consider that your mental, physical, spiritual, emotional and volitional selves must work on harmony at all times.

13. Make conscious decisions as to who you will be and how you will react to life. Accept the consequences of your own actions.

14. Always respect the privacy and personal space of others. Never touch the personal property of others, especially sacred items.

15. Be true to yourself. You can not nurture and help others until you can nurture and help yourself. Live your truth.

16. Respect the religious beliefs of others. Never force your beliefs on anyone else.

17. Share your good fortune with others. Tithe and participate in charity. Always give back to others, that they too may have a good life.

18. Always walk your thoughts before you make important decisions. Find your place of inner peace and operate from there. Walk in peace that others may do the same.

Thank you.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,703
  • Nov 24, 2012 10:38am Nov 24, 2012 10:38am
Quoting bassramy
Good to read and follow.

A Native American Code of Ethics from Shaman Cloud & the FireBear.

1. Rise with the Sun to pray....
That's beautiful, Bassramy! I have Native American blood on both sides to my family and this is my code as well, along with the teachings of Don Luis Ruiz (paraphrasing):

1. Don't take anything personally. (If someone says something about me in an accusing way, it's their problem. If I react to it, it then becomes my problem! ;^)

2. Don't judge anyone. (We do not know the path that others have walked, or how they got their particular view of life. My father often said, "Do not judge a man until you've walked a mile in his moccasins." I would say, "Do not judge a man because you can't walk in his moccasins." ;^)

3. Do your best, no more and no less! (It's just as easy to do MORE than you best by pushing yourself, as it is to do less! Do the best you can, and it will be good enough.)

4. Be a person of your word. The essence of being trustworthy. (BTW the American Government broke every treaty that it made with the Native American tribes, which says a lot about its trustworthiness. ;^)

BTW I have a way of creating bands very similar to the TMA bands that are not repainting, if anyone is interested.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #13,704
  • Nov 24, 2012 12:31pm Nov 24, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
That's beautiful, Bassramy! I have Native American blood on both sides to my family and this is my code as well, along with the teachings of Don Luis Ruiz (paraphrasing):

1. Don't take anything personally. (If someone says something about me in an accusing way, it's their problem. If I react to it, it then becomes my problem! ;^)

2. Don't judge anyone. (We do not know the path that others have walked, or how they got their particular view of life. My father often said, "Do not judge a man until you've walked a mile in his moccasins."...
nice quotes but it is easy to say something than to do it..

and about your TMA bands talk more please, you have the indi?
  • #13,705
  • Nov 25, 2012 4:27am Nov 25, 2012 4:27am
Quoting Ever E. Man
That's beautiful, Bassramy! I have Native American blood on both sides to my family and this is my code as well, along with the teachings of Don Luis Ruiz (paraphrasing):

1. Don't take anything personally. (If someone says something about me in an accusing way, it's their problem. If I react to it, it then becomes my problem! ;^)

2. Don't judge anyone. (We do not know the path that others have walked, or how they got their particular view of life. My father often said, "Do not judge a man until you've walked a mile in his moccasins."...
Thank you E. these are true words of wisdom, we will be more than glad to take a sneak peak of your version of the Bands, i too have multi version which i experiment with including but not limited to Hurst and starc bands.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,706
  • Nov 25, 2012 4:31am Nov 25, 2012 4:31am
I would also like a look at those bands please (presumably not just the TMA True version).
  • #13,707
  • Nov 25, 2012 8:52am Nov 25, 2012 8:52am
Quoting bassramy
Just Fade it

I don't like to be Biased but objectivity and reality oblige, if we aspire to become true and Professional Traders we should be objective and not get married to our trades and yes i have some EU shorts but for the sake of the truth and even if it suits my Trading Account we should not be afraid or taking by the media rush (“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
― Warren Buffett), we should relax, be calm and assess the situation to see clearly....

Have a good weekend, Regards.
B.R....
Very nice talk Bassramy! I like the way you think.

Thanks for sharing!
Mfinab,
  • #13,708
  • Nov 26, 2012 4:15am Nov 26, 2012 4:15am

Forecasts The Price Action way



Weekly Forex Price Action Chart Outlook for November 26th – November 30th 2012

EURUSD – Euro/dollar surges higher on fresh bullish momentum
The EURUSD moved significantly higher on Thursday and Friday of last week after forming a bullish pin bar on Wednesday that pushed the market back into its previous trading range between about 1.3150 resistance area and 1.2800 support. This week, if the bullish momentum continues, the market will face some near-term resistance around 1.3020, beyond that we see key resistance between 1.3130-1.3170 area. In the near-term, if this market pulls back to support near 1.2825 area and forms an obvious 4 hour or daily chart price action buy signal, we would consider a long entry to trade back up towards the resistance we just discussed and in-line with the fresh bullish momentum in this market. We would also consider selling if the market moves up into one of the resistance levels just mentioned and forms an obvious 4 hour or daily chart price action sell signal.
http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1353...-clip-19kb.png

USDJPY – Dollar/yen still strong, looking for a long entry from support
The USDJPY stalled out last Thursday and Friday, finally calming down after the recent surge higher. This week, if this market continues to retrace lower we will watch for price action buy signals forming from support. We can watch for buy signals near the 8 day EMA dynamic support level and further below near 80.65 support.


http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1353...-clip-20kb.png

AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar moves higher from pin bar

The AUDUSD moved significantly higher on Friday, we can see the pin bar setup which we discussed in our AUDUSD commentary in last week’s weekly outlook has seen price move up into the resistance zone near 1.0435 that we’ve been discussing recently. This week, we will watch the price action in this resistance zone closely, if price continues higher and closes above it, it would open the door for more gains. Alternatively, if the market forms an obvious price action sell signal from within this resistance zone we would consider a short entry to trade back down towards support.


http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1353...-clip-21kb.png

DJ30 – Dow Jones approaching resistance after huge surge higher
The Dow Jones futures market moved significantly higher last week after finding support near 12,450 on November 15th and 16th. Anyone who took the pin bar strategy trade that we discussed in our commentary from November 16th could have made a very nice return into Friday’s close. This week, we see some key resistance coming in close overhead near 12,960 area and would consider a short entry if a price action sell signal forms near that resistance this week.


http://clip2net.com/clip/m15546/1353...-clip-17kb.png


Forex Trading Commentary by the Price Action Master, our Friend and Mentor Nial Fuller
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,709
  • Edited 12:18pm Nov 26, 2012 12:00pm | Edited 12:18pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
That's beautiful, Bassramy!...
Quoting Ever E. Man
4. Be a person of your word.... ;^)

BTW I have a way of creating bands very similar to the TMA bands that are not repainting, if anyone is interested.

Here is my method of creating the Non-repainting bands. I'll break it up into several posts because it's so long.


First let me make it clear that this method is not for everyone. It's pretty labor and time intensive to setup. I personally don't mind it because I don't like to use indicators that I don't absolutely clearly understand.


Whatever stochastics, cci, adx, etc. are supposed to do, it is not transparent to me. ;^)


Although MACD and RSI are transparent, they require interpretation that for me keeps them from being simple and easy to use. Besides, the same information is easy for me to spot with my setup. I prefer very simple indi's that are very flexible and robust (read uncomplicated - which is in line with Nassim Taleb's philosophy - increasing complexity breeds fragility and ends in a black swan, eventually, usually, when you least expect it! ;^)

The method could probably be partially coded into one indi, which might save a lot of trouble setting up the charts, but I don't program and am not interested in learning. Anyone who wants to try to make it into a single indi, that would be great! But if it did not retain all of its flexibility and robustness, it would be inferior to doing it manually.

I probably could set up every chart for every asset that I will ever trade the rest of my life in less time and with less effort than it would take me to learn programming. ;^)

What this method does for me: it replaces all other indicators with simple, robust, non-repainting indi's that I can easily understand and adjust as market conditions change. It works as a framework on all TF's.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #13,710
  • Nov 26, 2012 12:03pm Nov 26, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting Ever E. Man


Here is my method of creating the Non-repainting bands. I'll break it up into several posts because it's so long....It works as a framework on all TF's.
Part II

I can easily see volatility, the maximum excursion that price has moved over the entire period of the chart, whether price is in consolidation, or is leaving consolidation, or likely to return to consolidation, the long term trend (GRaB candle color, the direction of the excursion bands), the intermediate term trend (the 34 period MA'S direction), the short term trend (the fast MA'S overlaying price direction and color). Momentum is easily captured by the steepness and separation of the fast MA, s/r ends up being at or near the bands, pivots same, fibs same, etc.

All without complicated indicators. Why? Because this method accurately models price, and that's what all the other methods are trying to do as well: model past PA to try to predict the likelihood of future PA. So, it stands to reason that they will end up in the same place at the same time, when price shifts gears from trending to consolidation, and vice versa.

Warning! This is not a canned system. It is a method for creating a discretionary framework only.

What it does not do:

1. It doesn't tell you where to set your SL. I don't use a stop loss (there are better ways) because of the ease with which the pros take money from the over-leveraged retail traders by hitting their stops (Duh!) It's like taking candy from a baby! Any time they can locate a pool of retail traders placing their stops in the same zone, they're going to try to take those stops out. Period. This creates a perpetual cat and mouse game with the pros being the cat! ;^)

2. It doesn't tell you exactly where to get in and where to get out. This is not a system that will provide you with an income stream without you doing anything (there aren't any, BTW, as all experienced traders know - or at least not any that anyone is going to give you that requires no work on your part! ;^)
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #13,711
  • Edited 12:44pm Nov 26, 2012 12:06pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
Part II

I can easily see volatility, the maximum excursion that price has moved over the entire period of the chart, whether price is in consolidation, or is leaving consolidation, or likely to return to consolidation,...or at least not any that anyone is going to give you that requires no work on your part! ;^)
Part III
Setting up the charts

You can find an explanation of GRaB (Green Red and Blue) candles and the 34 period EMA on Raghee Horner's free blog. Basically, they combine standard candles with HA, and are indicative of the long term trend only. The Blue and gray candles are in an area of consolidation (the small, dotted 34 period MA’s with Bands).

As you can see from my template I've created the smoothing by recursively using the input from the previous ma after setting the first one to Linear Weighted and Weighted Close (HLCC/4). This produces very smooth bands that are smoother and more responsive than EMA's.

To see this, look at the small bands and centerlines that show consolidation areas. The darker blue is the 34 EMA (that comes with the GRaB candles.) The lighter one (the 6th MA from the top in the indicator list) and has gone through several recursive smoothing operations. Both have their pluses and minuses, but if you check out the responsiveness, the lighter one is more responsive, as well as being smoother with a uniform width between the bands.

The lighter one, call it the recursive LWMA, or RLWMA, is adjusted manually, so, has to be re-adjusted for each chart. The 34 EMA programmatically adjusts to the correct band width. This produces an excellent guide to setting the width of the 34 period RLWMA. (I simply adjust the width of the RLWMA to approximately the same width as the EMA. ;^)

The width of the other bands are adjusted by first finding the largest excursion from the mean and measuring the distance, and setting the level to that distance. I can then scroll through the chart and look for any other excursions that touch or slightly exceed the same band. The inner band can be set to the levels that you plan on trading on a shorter time scale.

I tend to give more weight to fitting of the inner bands to the more recent PA. Since price can go through periods of higher or lower volatility for shorter, or longer, periods of time, the bands may need to be adjusted to reflect the changes. It’s not necessary to be too picky. Don’t try for perfection. The most robust models are both simple and approximate. Making them too perfect still produces over-fitting.

We've been in a period of lower volatility and increased volume for several months now. This will continue until it doesn't, at which time the bands can be easily changed to reflect the new conditions.

One way of setting the inner bands is to find a period of fairly consistent waves that are bouncing back and forth about the same distance above and below the mean, and set the levels to a distance that allows price to tap the upper and lower bands. Now check the rest of the chart to see if price does the same thing at other times. Surprisingly, price moves very nearly the same distance from the mean repeatedly (measured in Standard Deviations by the pros.)

I do something similar with setting the other bands. For a baseline estimate you can divide the distance between the outer and inner bands into equal parts and check the result against PA and make adjustments as necessary. Never be afraid to adjust the bands to a different level if it would better describe price movement.

Each band is associated with a different ma and adjusts separately. This makes it more difficult to setup, however, it has several advantages.

For one it allows the colors to be adjusted separately instead of making all the bands the same color.

It also allows the insertion of several invisible MA's that can be used to adjust the excursion bands and the 34 period consolidation MA's to better fit the data:
#2, #5, and #7 RLWMA's do not show up on the chart, but will make all the MA's that follow them flatter or wavier.

#2 adjusts the very fast MA that is directly over price, as well as every MA that follows it! ;^)

#5 adjusts the 34 period consolidation area RLWMA (but not the 34 period EMA that is set by the GRaB candles) & every MA after it.

#7 adjusts the excursion bands as a unit.

If price hits one excursion band perfectly but just misses another, you can try increasing/decreasing the period of #7 MA. Every asset and TF has its own character, and requires different setting.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #13,712
  • Edited 12:38pm Nov 26, 2012 12:10pm | Edited 12:38pm
Part IV

Hints on using the RLWMA

First, known glitches:
1. Whenever you scroll all the way to the left to the earliest prices on the chart, the GRaBs candles will sometime, kind of, well, explode! ;^) Changing to a different time frame and back fixes the problem. Other times part of a bar may be one color and the rest another. Same solution.

2. IF YOU DELETE ANY OF THE MA'S, THOSE THAT FOLLOW IN THE INDICATOR LIST WILL ALSO BE DELETED! It's a bit of a shock the first time it happens! ;^) The solution is to save your templates very often, and if you screw up settings, reload the template.

Reading the charts:

You may notice that price always returns to consolidation after each excursion from the mean (the center line). You may also notice that consolidation (the 34 period LWMA and the 34 period EMA - the reason for using both is explained below) snakes above and below the mean, staying above during a strong down trend and below during a strong up trend.

A price excursion away from the 34 MA's that ends by touching one of the bands will usually return to consolidation (though not necessarily to the mean.)

In a strong trend price will tend to "tap" a band repeatedly, and parallel the band, often returning briefly to consolidation before continuing the trend before finally turning toward the consolidation zone. When price is in a strong sideways trend (yes, it's just a trend ;^), price and the MA's will often hug the mean for an extended period, staying between the darker blue bands.

To get a clear picture of how the price interacts with the bands: squeeze down the time and price scales and scroll through the past price history. The fact the price returns to the same bands repeatedly is very clear. If you set one of the bands to a significant price excursion limit, later price action will return to that band. It may not be exact, but it’s as good as the professionals do who use statistical analysis and standard deviations to judge how far price is likely to go before reversing. (And you don't have to have a PhD to make it work. ;^)

This is presented here as a new toy, not a solution to anyone’s financial problems. ;^D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Daily Ex.jpg Size: 158 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 GRaB Candles Long.mq4   4 KB | 834 downloads
File Type: mq4 GRaB Candles Short.mq4   4 KB | 795 downloads
File Type: mq4 GRaB Candles Range.mq4   4 KB | 800 downloads
File Type: mq4 BarTime.mq4   3 KB | 690 downloads
File Type: ex4 Magnified_Market_Price.ex4   3 KB | 703 downloads
File Type: tpl eu sample [d1].tpl   7 KB | 721 downloads
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #13,713
  • Nov 26, 2012 12:56pm Nov 26, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting Ever E. Man


Here is my method of creating the Non-repainting bands....
The previous screen shot of the chart was mighty poor! I'll try again with a different file format:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD [D1].PNG Size: 37 KB
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #13,714
  • Edited 2:03pm Nov 26, 2012 1:01pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
The previous screen shot of the chart was mighty poor! I'll try again with a different file format:
One more time, partner! Mmmmh...well, that's a little better! ;^)

Also, forgot to mention that the MA and volume indi's are just those that come with MT4, nothing custom, and I only use the volume to view the increase/decrease from past times.

Have fun!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Sample [D1].PNG Size: 66 KB
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #13,715
  • Nov 27, 2012 3:27am Nov 27, 2012 3:27am
Quoting Ever E. Man
One more time, partner! Mmmmh...well, that's a little better! ;^)

Also, forgot to mention that the MA and volume indi's are just those that come with MT4, nothing custom, and I only use the volume to view the increase/decrease from past times.

Have fun!
Excellent job E. Thank you very Much for this great work and for sharing it with us.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,716
  • Edited 5:28am Nov 27, 2012 3:41am | Edited 5:28am
Currencies Status :

1- EU broke the Wedge to the downside.
2- GU Made a double top, waiting for it @ the bottom of the Neckline.
3- AU made a Bearish Divergence @ the top of the H4 upper Band and @ multiple resistance levels, a classic signal to short.
4- UCAD made a double bottom.
5- UCHF Made a trader Vic's 2B bullish pattern.
6- UJ continue his bearish Movement down with some retracement higher anticipated.
7- UN trying to breakdown the wedge, the 66% pattern is almost over and t'il this moment the PA is keep rejected from the Down upper trendline of the wedge, from there we should see a squeeze and a bull or bear break, likely to the short side.

Have a nice day everybody and may the pips be with you.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,717
  • Nov 27, 2012 6:02am Nov 27, 2012 6:02am
Hi Bassramy,
Thanks, have a nice day too!
Mfinab
  • #13,718
  • Edited 8:05am Nov 27, 2012 7:37am | Edited 8:05am
US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m surprise to the upside, more Euro weakness and USD Strength coming in the near future.
HA on EU Just turned red time to go short.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,719
  • Nov 27, 2012 9:37am Nov 27, 2012 9:37am
US CB Consumer Confidence Better then expected all High Beta Assets are collapsing, EU, GU, AU etc.....
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,720
  • Nov 27, 2012 6:43pm Nov 27, 2012 6:43pm
I learned many things with all contributors to this forum.
I just read for two years now I feel that I can have a lot of confidence to go on live accounts.
I Not provide because my English is not good.
Thank you very much.
Be happy, friendly, humble and winner!!
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