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  • #15,881
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:03pm Nov 24, 2012 3:03pm
Daily Projection-Extended (A Tentative Scenario)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-112412-D-X.JPG Size: 89 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,882
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:09pm Nov 24, 2012 3:09pm
H4 Projection-Posted on Friday

BULL-EAR-ULL Pattern - A joint venture of the Bulls and the Bear

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353720011
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,883
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:09pm Nov 24, 2012 3:09pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Monthly Projection
There is always that possibility. Much like the possibility of aud going down to 1.015. At this point, nothing is certain.

One thing to note is that when everyone starts to think that aud will go to 1.10, that is often when aud reverses course and crashes. Of course, when everyone thinks that it will go to 1.015, that's when aud skyrockets to 1.10. This is much like jpy - it seems that everyone is quite certain that usdjpy will go up 1000 pips - will it? I suspect that clearing out the longs is in order prior to that happening. Then again, people will start shorting usdjpy in 200 pips or less and that will cause usdjpy to go higher instead. The point being - in life, nothing is certain except for death and taxes^^
  • #15,884
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:16pm Nov 24, 2012 3:16pm
Quoting maximmm
There is always that possibility. Much like the possibility of aud going down to 1.015. At this point, nothing is certain.

One thing to note is that when everyone starts to think that aud will go to 1.10, that is often when aud reverses course and crashes. Of course, when everyone thinks that it will go to 1.015, that's when aud skyrockets to 1.10.
I am not a Bullear and prefer to post what I am thinking. I may be wrong in the end but it is what I would do. IMO making dual-view comments is everyone's freedom of speech but not me. If I am wrong so be it and move on.

The market paths were preset. I am trying to decypher them with my understandings. It is what it is.
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,885
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:19pm Nov 24, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting maximmm
There is always that possibility. Much like the possibility of aud going down to 1.015. At this point, nothing is certain.

One thing to note is that when everyone starts to think that aud will go to 1.10, that is often when aud reverses course and crashes. Of course, when everyone thinks that it will go to 1.015, that's when aud skyrockets to 1.10. This is much like jpy - it seems that everyone is quite certain that usdjpy will go up 1000 pips - will it? I suspect that clearing out the longs is in order prior to that happening. Then...
Not everyone starts to think that aud will go to 1.10. It is about 50/50. A contrarian thinking is not always working.
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,886
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:22pm Nov 24, 2012 3:22pm
Quoting maximmm
There is always that possibility. Much like the possibility of aud going down to 1.015. At this point, nothing is certain.

One thing to note is that when everyone starts to think that aud will go to 1.10, that is often when aud reverses course and crashes. Of course, when everyone thinks that it will go to 1.015, that's when aud skyrockets to 1.10. This is much like jpy - it seems that everyone is quite certain that usdjpy will go up 1000 pips - will it? I suspect that clearing out the longs is in order prior to that happening. Then again,...
If you believe the Aussie will move differently, would you please post your charts and comments to help everyone get a balanced view?
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,887
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:25pm Nov 24, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting maximmm
There is always that possibility. Much like the possibility of aud going down to 1.015. At this point, nothing is certain.
There are numerous possibilities but in the end there is only one. Based on your thought nothing is certain then how would you trade next?
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,888
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:36pm Nov 24, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
There are numerous possibilities but in the end there is only one. Based on your thought nothing is certain then how would you trade next?
Good question. If 1.06 gets broken, aud is likely to go to 1.10 - so will go long from there.

Otherwise, aud is likely to retract - though one wave higher is likely - reaching your target 1.05*
In any case, until 1.06 gets broken, I prefer shorts over longs - will look for a bearish signal.
  • #15,889
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:38pm Nov 24, 2012 3:38pm
BTW, My projections are before facts not facts at this point and may not match what happens later.
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,890
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:43pm Nov 24, 2012 3:43pm
Current Rate: 1.04605
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,891
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:45pm Nov 24, 2012 3:45pm
Looking at the euro weekly chart - ewp and all - it appears that euro is likely to test 1.40 before anything else - amazing.
  • #15,892
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:48pm Nov 24, 2012 3:48pm
This is the latest tally of the poll results. I am closing the poll now and replace it with a new poll regrading the Sunday open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: POLL-111512.JPG Size: 98 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,893
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:53pm Nov 24, 2012 3:53pm
Announcement:

The new poll "What is your expectation of Sunday open?" is setup. Please vote for your expectation at the first page of this thread. Thanks.

Note: This poll will be closed after 5 PM EST Sunday.
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,894
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:54pm Nov 24, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting maximmm
Looking at the euro weekly chart - ewp and all - it appears that euro is likely to test 1.40 before anything else - amazing.
Agree.
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,895
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:56pm Nov 24, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Announcement:

The new poll "What is your expectation of Sunday open?" is setup. Please vote for your expectation at the first page of this thread. Thanks.

Note: This poll will be closed after 5 PM EST Sunday.
This poll is for the members only. If you are a lurker please sigh up your free account to participate this poll.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344486604
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,896
  • Nov 24, 2012 4:26pm Nov 24, 2012 4:26pm
btw, regarding cycles, next week is the last week of november - it's likely to end up being bullish - will december be the bearish month? reversals often occur during the beginning of a new month
  • #15,897
  • Nov 24, 2012 4:41pm Nov 24, 2012 4:41pm
Finally, I think that this upcoming week is crucial for most currency pairs. If euro breaches 1.3050 and stays above that level by the end of the week, euro is likely to reach 1.40 rather quickly. As for aud and nzd pairs, they are both getting closer to the edge of the triangle. Will they breach it? Aud is unlikely to do so - it is a bit too far away from the edge, but nzd.... you never know. I am very bearish in regards to nzd - given the fundamentals, but nzd has often moved in ways that contradicted its fundamentals. For obvious reasons, the first week of December is even more crucial for these the asian pairs, given that the rate decision will be announced then. Good luck to everyone.

PS. in regards to this Sunday's PA - I suspect that fading the initial move is the way to go. Cheers.
  • #15,898
  • Nov 24, 2012 6:54pm Nov 24, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Monthly Projection
Is this a painting of something?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #15,899
  • Nov 24, 2012 7:07pm Nov 24, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting forexalien
Is this a painting of something?
This is more like an art than a chart. It is a painting if you will.
daddybearforex. com
  • #15,900
  • Nov 24, 2012 7:22pm Nov 24, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting maximmm
Finally, I think that this upcoming week is crucial for most currency pairs. If euro breaches 1.3050 and stays above that level by the end of the week, euro is likely to reach 1.40 rather quickly. As for aud and nzd pairs, they are both getting closer to the edge of the triangle. Will they breach it? Aud is unlikely to do so - it is a bit too far away from the edge, but nzd.... you never know. I am very bearish in regards to nzd - given the fundamentals, but nzd has often moved in ways that contradicted its fundamentals. For obvious reasons,...
What is the direction of the Sunday initial move?
daddybearforex. com
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