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AUD/USD

  • #56,661
  • Nov 21, 2012 4:33am Nov 21, 2012 4:33am
Is AUD about to fall through the hole in the floor? AUD-CAD has been testing that key support again and again.
  • #56,662
  • Nov 21, 2012 7:21am Nov 21, 2012 7:21am
Ohhhhh surprise surprise. Still bearish bias to atleast 1.0330
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,663
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:23am Nov 21, 2012 8:23am
btw, new demo account uploaded....
just so people can see my progress.
http://www.forexfactory.com/fxtyrant/80
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,664
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:04am Nov 21, 2012 9:04am
Might be a new circle forming.

Hourly
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,665
  • Nov 21, 2012 11:29am Nov 21, 2012 11:29am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Might be a new circle forming.

Hourly
draw that by hand or do you have a tool / script?

interested
  • #56,666
  • Nov 21, 2012 1:38pm Nov 21, 2012 1:38pm
Illusion is this pair
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #56,667
  • Nov 21, 2012 6:11pm Nov 21, 2012 6:11pm
Given this release I get the feeling that something great will be here by end of year or it will be severly bad.

Given China greenshoots and Europe coming to a possible decision on Monday and were close to a decision on Fiscal cliff this could set the market up for a multi month run up. Or if the latter two fail to materialize it will be disaster.

Look at ES it has bottomed here and Dollar has reversed so far this week as I pointed out this week in USDX forum. I am a seller of AUD at the upper range but I can't deny with the thin volume and the good news that just came out we could see us tap the Week to date high I am now long going into Friday close. Then reassess next week
  • #56,668
  • Nov 21, 2012 6:33pm Nov 21, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting TradeMonk
draw that by hand or do you have a tool / script?

interested

It's by hand, which makes it prone to mistakes. (Though, if anyone who does write codes/scripts/whatever could help me out!) I have a little mini-tutorial in my journal, which is in my signature.

Price hit 1.04 on the hourly, which is a S/R line set out on the charts posted earlier. Daily is still stuck on the circle.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,669
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:52pm Nov 21, 2012 8:52pm
Ouch!!!
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #56,670
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:29pm Nov 21, 2012 9:29pm
E/a
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,671
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:54pm Nov 21, 2012 9:54pm
h1 view
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #56,672
  • Nov 21, 2012 10:38pm Nov 21, 2012 10:38pm
Nice! My long limit which didn't trigger on monday got the lows to the pip!
  • #56,673
  • Nov 22, 2012 4:11pm Nov 22, 2012 4:11pm
The new circle ends at midnight. (central) If price is above 1.038~ at that time, it will begin to fall. If below, it will begin to rise. Depending on how far price is from that level, above or below, will determine the speed of the fall/rise.

Hourly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,674
  • Nov 22, 2012 6:04pm Nov 22, 2012 6:04pm
Starting to look like price will be at 1.038 in four hours.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,675
  • Nov 22, 2012 10:34pm Nov 22, 2012 10:34pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post6219951
I had to get back in after getting stopped out on the lower levels but I am glad I did. Now were reaching the upper range I will wait for Friday trading to take profits before shorting again
  • #56,676
  • Nov 22, 2012 10:57pm Nov 22, 2012 10:57pm
We have a nice range here lets see if it can continue into year end. Dollar historically though the last two months out of the year drops off so getting in short topside looks appealing
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353356464
  • #56,677
  • Nov 22, 2012 11:12pm Nov 22, 2012 11:12pm
Quoting jplazard
We have a nice range here lets see if it can continue into year end. Dollar historically though the last two months out of the year drops off so getting in short topside looks appealing
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353356464
well I don't think any of your dreams are going to come true as far as aussie is concerned. I still remember how sharply it fell in 2 days from 1.0460 to 1.0260. RBA is selling aussie on all tops so it will be difficult for the aussie to cross 1.04
  • #56,678
  • Nov 22, 2012 11:13pm Nov 22, 2012 11:13pm
Quoting Nachiket
well I don't think any of your dreams are going to come true as far as aussie is concerned. I still remember how sharply it fell in 2 days from 1.0460 to 1.0260. RBA is selling aussie on all tops so it will be difficult for the aussie to cross 1.04
I am surprised it did today but wouldn't surprise me a little bit if it gets smashed again anytime in the day
  • #56,679
  • Nov 22, 2012 11:24pm Nov 22, 2012 11:24pm
were presently at 1.0408 it is not far fetched to think come NY after being off for a day and watching EUROPE and Asia have continued higher not to mention this just came out
Greek lenders have agreed on measures to reduce Greek debt to 130% of GDP by 2020 - Govt source

plus the monday meeting agreement will only further bolster optimism going into the weekend. For it to spike up 25-30ticks would be a flood of orders in NY. But yes I agree on the notion that RBA is selling and have been for some time they most likely will step in on the middle to upper 1.04 area once more
  • #56,680
  • Nov 23, 2012 4:36am Nov 23, 2012 4:36am
Quoting Nachiket
well I don't think any of your dreams are going to come true as far as aussie is concerned. I still remember how sharply it fell in 2 days from 1.0460 to 1.0260. RBA is selling aussie on all tops so it will be difficult for the aussie to cross 1.04
Hi Nachi its not really intervention. The RBA is not selling any aussie per say. The articles say the RBA is simply not "squaring" its position when other central banks go up to the RBA and want to purchase more aussie aka not buying it back straight away. And all this is just pure speculation because people looked at the RBA balance sheet and noticed there was an increase of AUD487mn or so. Its kind of a misnomer. This is very much part of how the central bank conducts businesses normally. To put things in prospective, RBA balance sheet's average movement since 1995 is AUD830mn per month. The RBA total forex reserves have been pretty much unchanged for the past few years never falling below AUD41bn nor rising above AUD45bn.

Compare that to the bond redemption on Thursdays which was AUD8.9bn in a single day.
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