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Euro/Dollar

  • #2,361
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:40pm Nov 20, 2012 9:40pm
Tuesday Report:

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders. I created this site as a guide to understand my report: http://gino32.wix.com/indepthmarketreport#!home/mainPage

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [color=blue][email protected][/color]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)

Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.
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  • #2,362
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:44pm Nov 20, 2012 9:44pm
We are absorbing bids at 2770 now... pile of stops below 2760 need to be tripped to get this Bear freight train moving
  • #2,363
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:03pm Nov 20, 2012 10:03pm
Critical for Bears that 2750 area give way completely lest Bulls start thinking the Greek Christmas ws only postponed till next Monday's meeting and start getting ideas about buying here and holding till then.....

The big boys should run all stops tucked under 2750 to flush the weak hands out
  • #2,364
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:15pm Nov 20, 2012 10:15pm
Quoting Crassius
.

The big boys should run all stops tucked under 2750 to flush the weak hands out
Mission Accomplished !
  • #2,365
  • Nov 21, 2012 3:37am Nov 21, 2012 3:37am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Since both my trading systems are mostly mechanical, I will not be able to explain too much in terms of TA. But adding a chart anyway.

GU has now eventually started to show a bullish flip too. So I'm looking to go long on GU here @ 1.5927. Will add one more long on the next little dip - but SL set just below the weekly open @ 1.5881. I do believe we have reasonable support below price now - with the Monday close @ 1.5906 as well as last week's opening price @ 1.5901 and it would be encouraging if these hold for now.

All the best

Regards...
Nice little trap on both EU and GU.

Missed my SL by 5 pips... got a second long entry in. Looking to see the recent 1.5934 high to be put under pressure.

Regards
  • #2,366
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:06am Nov 21, 2012 8:06am
A breakout above 2830 has be bailing on this trade. That would turn the structure into a 5 wave sequence.
  • #2,367
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:15am Nov 21, 2012 8:15am
Quoting Crassius
A breakout above 2830 has be bailing on this trade. That would turn the structure into a 5 wave sequence.

I could see that coming.... lowered my stop loss just in time....

I am now flat. I lowered because the optimism after Merkel's comments is ridiculously strong across markets, especially reflected in bonds.... This almost assured that 2830 gets taken out, and seriously threatening to turn a nearly perfect three wave structure into a five wave structure that looks impulsive. By going flat there, I am still in the green over all on the trade, (just) having taken profits along the way...

I may have stuck my stop just where it would get picked off, but I didn't want to get into a negative balance on the trade heading into a 4 day long US Holiday. The market will always be here... another setup is just around the corner....
  • #2,368
  • Edited 8:31am Nov 21, 2012 8:19am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting Crassius
I could see that coming.... lowered my stop loss just in time....

I am now flat. I lowered because the optimism after Merkel's comments is ridiculously strong across markets, especially reflected in bonds.... This almost assured that 2830 gets taken out, and seriously threatening to turn a nearly perfect three wave structure into a five wave structure that looks impulsive. By going flat there, I am still in the green over all on the trade, (just) having taken profits along the way...

I may have stuck my stop just where it would get picked...

The descending channel top at 2845 and the line in the sand for Bears at 2883 are of interest to watch for a turn.... I am not interested unless it happens after the long weekend.... then I'll take a look...
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  • #2,369
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:05am Nov 21, 2012 9:05am
Quoting TauTrader
Nice little trap on both EU and GU.

Missed my SL by 5 pips... got a second long entry in. Looking to see the recent 1.5934 high to be put under pressure.

Regards
good day,

Booking some. If we get to 1.5940 - will aim for 1.5960 then close all.

Regards
  • #2,370
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:14am Nov 21, 2012 9:14am
Four day Holiday starts in the US after today... will thin out conditions to a great degree...

EZ PMI's due out Thursday while the US is out will be very interesting in the thin conditions... a big miss by Germany could cool this rally off...

For now I see irrational exuberance over the fake cliff and Greece getting more credit... as though more credit for Greece solves anything...

For me the charts are not as clean or clear as I would like heading into what could be a tricky Thursday session if PMI's surprise... or a likely sideways grind.

We really are winding up the entire year, as trading between the end of the second week in Dec ( only three weeks away) and the end of the first week of Jan is usually best passed by.
  • #2,371
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:17am Nov 21, 2012 9:17am
Good day,

Taking a final long scalp on EU - entered @ 1.2816. Target 1.2838

Regards
  • #2,372
  • Nov 21, 2012 12:37pm Nov 21, 2012 12:37pm
http://s7.postimage.org/ikjwwjdp7/euro.gif
image

hello
Another day, another long lower wick,
We finally pushed trought weekly R1 at 1,28197 this is a third session which could end up above 200SMA where bulls could establish temporary base.
I will not buy yet, I would like to see a push up to high from 7th of oct about 128773, 2852 is no longer res in my books than maybe a nice drop to weekly trendline from 22/07/2012 low to last week low.
And I would initiate position somewhere around that trendline if we drop.
As I said 28773 is the line which will be my nearest point of interest, A very good RR for shorts,
Call me crazy but there was a real will to buy Euro from 2700 area and it is visible on daily chart as a nice rounded bottom.
Regards
Tom
swing it!
  • #2,373
  • Nov 21, 2012 12:43pm Nov 21, 2012 12:43pm
looking at other threads I am going against the crowd again...
swing it!
  • #2,374
  • Nov 21, 2012 7:45pm Nov 21, 2012 7:45pm
Quoting TauTrader
good day,

Booking some. If we get to 1.5940 - will aim for 1.5960 then close all.

Regards
Good day,

Done

Regards
  • #2,375
  • Nov 21, 2012 7:51pm Nov 21, 2012 7:51pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day,

Taking a final long scalp on EU - entered @ 1.2816. Target 1.2838

Regards
Scalp completed

Will now be on the side. 1.2943 could still be on the cards later - but going to wait. Just taking small little bites.

Regards
  • #2,376
  • Edited 9:27pm Nov 21, 2012 9:21pm | Edited 9:27pm
Quoting tomspin
http://s7.postimage.org/ikjwwjdp7/euro.gif
image

hello
Another day, another long lower wick,
We finally pushed trought weekly R1 at 1,28197 this is a third session which could end up above 200SMA where bulls could establish temporary base.

Tom
This is a great chart and as usual a picture speaks a thousand words.

The long wick candle you point out SCREAMS impulsiveness... a character to price movement that indicates the direction of the trend... not its correction.

Which leaves me too unclear to have a trade.

One of the values of Elliott wave is that it often tells us when we are wrong, or when the trend has changed against us early enough to get out to preserve a good Risk/Reward average across our trades.... I feel that was the case this morning when we took out 1.2830. I bailed because the picture I was seeing drawn by Elliott started to fall apart exactly at 1.2831..... so that calls for getting out.. period. Beyond the wave count, Fibonacci and wave relationship proportions, wave character i.e. impulsive vs. corrective is another important element to weigh. Clearly the candle you point out is impulsive.

Knowing when to get out is just as important as knowing when to get in.

Frankly I am confused at this juncture, and would need to see price get above 1.2910 (168% extension of probable wave 1 for probable wave 3 confirmation) to cement a bull trend in place. With the long Holiday conditions on tap, and a new EuroGroup meeting Monday, the sidelines look like a good place for me at this time. There are plenty of times I have a much clearer picture of the market. I'm not going to chase here. Chasing in Poker or trading is a losers habit.
  • #2,377
  • Nov 21, 2012 11:35pm Nov 21, 2012 11:35pm
Good day,

It would not surprise me at all if we move higher still in coming sessions. All indications are there that the leg up may continue further. Higher lows / Higher Highs with RSI cross still valid. An awkward spot to enter any trade at this present time - but a dip lower may again offer a long opportunity.That however needs to be confirmed first.

Renko setup also still supports the move - with yesterday's bear trap clearly spotted.

My charts are not technical really - but just wanted to show my reasoning.

All the best
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  • #2,378
  • Nov 22, 2012 12:07am Nov 22, 2012 12:07am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day,

It would not surprise me at all if we move higher still in coming sessions. All indications are there that the leg up may continue further. Higher lows / Higher Highs with RSI cross still valid. An awkward spot to enter any trade at this present time - but a dip lower may again offer a long opportunity.That however needs to be confirmed first.

Renko setup also still supports the move - with yesterday's bear trap clearly spotted.

My charts are not technical really - but just wanted to show my reasoning.

All the best
agree..
follow the paths of the "baby" elephants.. buy dips in-front of 1.28 with PA setup & spikes down to 1.2780 if seen .. more bang for the buck & a lot less stressful..
above 1.2888 "bull" elephants take over for another probe up to 1.3188~1.3288..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture-20121122-054445 elephant paths 2.png Size: 53 KB
  • #2,379
  • Nov 22, 2012 12:29am Nov 22, 2012 12:29am
Quoting cdndollar
agree..
follow the paths of the "baby" elephants.. buy dips in-front of 1.28 with PA setup & spikes down to 1.2780 if seen .. more bang for the buck & a lot less stressful..
above 1.2888 "bull" elephants take over for another probe up to 1.3188~1.3288..

Attachment
good day to you, cdndollar

Nice!
Attached Image
  • #2,380
  • Nov 22, 2012 12:58am Nov 22, 2012 12:58am
Quoting TauTrader
good day to you, cdndollar

Nice!
haha thanks..

very nice elephant..
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