very sound question. but my reply may not be as sound as you may expect. meanwhile i will try.
it is risky, but not too risky, because of my leverage. and that why i have this beautiful collection
i do not think when i trade (sounds funny?). i only anticipate. i anticipated all jpy pairs will fall (at higher TF they were down, so i sold high at lower TF), took my trades. simple as that. now after friday's move (which did not go my way), i feel some of these pairs may still rise higher, if that happens i simply will eat the loss, thank...
- #602
- Nov 21, 2012 4:01pm Nov 21, 2012 4:01pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
Hey man! I am not trying to pick on you or bully you, but I hope you learned a very valuable lesson, to never trade correlated pairs at the same time. Now the price may reverse, but there is no indication for this yet. It keeps making new highs... Good luck!
(if there are curious people please do check)what an experience! jpy is falling unstop. i have always traded correlated pairs but have not seen this for some time.
shit happens, they say, i was at the right time, at the right place
i could have stopped that had i had chance to control my trades. just came from work and what a surprise
now i have a chance to trade full time till Friday (thanks to US holidays) and have to find an exit point and restart again.
my entries were not too bad, the problem was to decide when to take the loss and exit (we all have heard that many times, the most important thing is when to exit!)
my leverage could have managed 200 pip loss per pair and i would not blink but when all pairs are stacked against you this is really scary
no problem, this is learning curve, new experience for a newbie. i am glad this is happening to my micro account.
And thanks for bringing this to my attention. wish you many successful trades and best of luck my friend.
any suggestions, opinions are welcome.
As Above, So Below
Here's my chart/prediction. currently at top of long term channel and just completed rise over last 7 days to top of that channel. There is a little bit of room to top out at 132 in the next couple of days, then most likely to go down to 127.5. Eventual upside is 133.4 once it breaks over long term channel.
This pair is like a rocket and nothing will stop it. The top is very far and no retracement seems allowed
Last butnotleast Chinese data will boost it in the night. It's time to go long IMO.
- #605
- Nov 21, 2012 5:22pm Nov 21, 2012 5:22pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
1. You went against huge momentum without significant Price Action reversal.
2. There was a very very important Trendline just some 25 pips above it. With such momentum up you would have to anticipate that it will be hit for the third time, so you could set pending order for sell higher.
3. If this kind of Trendline gets broken, price will fly, the sooner the better you get out. Tight SL beyond important Trendlines!
4. No correlated pair trading! It pays much better to trade less pairs and to know them well.
5. No additional sell after such important...
1. I agree on momentum. but if you look at the chart below, you will see solid reason to short (look at the box). price was rejected and stalled for 2 days. that price action in the blue box was a hint to short. but the next candle was up again that was clearly sign of up trend. but i can monitor my trades on asian hours and that session was hinting short again (you can check that) so i left it as it is. and then you can see what happened today.
2. i sell only high or buy low (with reference to weekly trend). entering at the middle is not my style in spite of any kinf of momentum (we know it was momentum only after it happens).
3. this is true for sure.
4. true again. lesson learned
5. i do not trade trendlines despite draw them on the chart for consideration. i am more interested in support and resistance + price action.
now my lesson is that i made a mistake not considering jpy weakness THAT much (this was expected if you see my sentiments on currencies) they do not usually move all together in the same direction. but this time i was lucky to catch such opportunity
also should not have trusted asian session too much. put stop loss if you can not control your trades. and many more.
As Above, So Below
- #608
- Nov 21, 2012 5:46pm Nov 21, 2012 5:46pm
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Un-Educated Guess | 275 Posts
Just now is going to 132.
This pair is like a rocket and nothing will stop it. The top is very far and no retracement seems allowed
Last butnotleast Chinese data will boost it in the night. It's time to go long IMO.
- #611
- Nov 21, 2012 5:56pm Nov 21, 2012 5:56pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
i always thought there is something wrong in trusting pin bars!
just now an idea came to mind. it is something i always felt but never realized clearly. what a fool i was!
i am closing all bleeding trades for $250 loss and restart the game again.
thanks a lot for the chart.
- #613
- Nov 21, 2012 6:17pm Nov 21, 2012 6:17pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
There is (generally speaking) nothing wrong with pin bars. They can be very reliable, but not in momentum market! I got killed before when I still didn't know Price action and I would take 4H pins, one after another and I would loose, one after another. I do trade Oanda, but I don't look at their charts. My main chart is FxPro, and I use Oanda for low risk trading and to see how the opening on Sunday night will be as Oanda opens 2 hours before the FxPro. We may reached the top at 131.7, I don't know...my TP is set to 133, we'll see how it goes....
i will take it to where i was but will take some time.
133.40 i will sell it there. at least worth giving a try. but monthly chart is bullish. you better keep your long, at least a small part of it. if weekly close above 133.50 you will become a millionaire
As Above, So Below
- #615
- Edited 8:31pm Nov 21, 2012 8:16pm | Edited 8:31pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,582 Posts
Andrews Pitchfork's possible view of the world, with a little wave analysis as well.
And you will find a lot of medium term and quite old trend-lines arrive in that area.
And you will find a lot of medium term and quite old trend-lines arrive in that area.
- #617
- Nov 21, 2012 10:03pm Nov 21, 2012 10:03pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,582 Posts
Whilst a bounce at the earlier stated level (s) is quite possible, it is also possible that a retrace to centre of the channel ( orange) would either provide only a small bounce or a larger one up to channel top at 133.5.
