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AUD/USD

  • #56,641
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:27pm Nov 20, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting domino
looks to me like the downward momentum on the daily and weekly is accelerating downward to me... compressing against the 1.0450 with gapping traction bars. Almost looks like a psychological death roll formation on higher frames which maybe why everyone is already cutting rates.

Minor compression in the e/u between 2650 and 2850 and how the aussy moves till then may show what we will see over coming months.. seems like a big move to me.. almost planned in a way

take a look at the 100 hour ema: looks like the downward momentum just got the wind knocked out of it's sail's. (i find the 100 hour ema is a good representation of the swing action of the pair lately)

judging from the remainder of the chart, it won't be going down much further for a while... beside's, looks like we're carvin out a nice bullish pin bar on the 4h
  • #56,642
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:33pm Nov 20, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting 1candlepower
take a look at the 100 hour ema: looks like the downward momentum just got the wind knocked out of it's sail's. (i find the 100 hour ema is a good representation of the swing action of the pair lately)

judging from the remainder of the chart, it won't be going down much further for a while... beside's, looks like we're carvin out a nice bullish pin bar on the 4h
time will tell
  • #56,643
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:37pm Nov 20, 2012 2:37pm
audjpy will touch 85 shortly -> opportunity for risk-off trades. sell adus around 1.0440 seem like an interesting option.

adjy sharp correction likely. usjy gone to far too soon.
  • #56,644
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:39pm Nov 20, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting domino
time will tell
i'm looking at 396 (local pivot) as the next key level.

what do you see as the next "tell"?
  • #56,645
  • Nov 20, 2012 3:13pm Nov 20, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting 1candlepower
i'm looking at 396 (local pivot) as the next key level.

what do you see as the next "tell"?
sure there is a pin bar bar not much else as price action shows lower lows and lower highs still underneath accelerating downward trendline and surrounded by congestion created from higher timeframes. Going long in a downtrend into a downtrend line is not generally considered a risk worthy play
  • #56,646
  • Nov 20, 2012 3:32pm Nov 20, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting domino
sure there is a pin bar bar not much else as price action shows lower lows and lower highs still underneath accelerating downward trendline and surrounded by congestion created from higher timeframes. Going long in a downtrend into a downtrend line is not generally considered a risk worthy play
i took another look at my chart and .au has been ranging btwn ~.9670 and 1.0818 except for a few brief excursions since before feb of 2011 and there is a converging triangle forming since jul of this year ... there does not appear to be any directional momentum of any substance on any timeframe at this point except for the thwarted down move from earlier today...

in other words: i don't see much momentum of any sort.

we are talking about aud/usd, right? (if not, i need to start getting more sleep!)
  • #56,647
  • Nov 20, 2012 5:15pm Nov 20, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting 1candlepower
i took another look at my chart and .au has been ranging btwn ~.9670 and 1.0818 except for a few brief excursions since before feb of 2011 and there is a converging triangle forming since jul of this year ... there does not appear to be any directional momentum of any substance on any timeframe at this point except for the thwarted down move from earlier today...

in other words: i don't see much momentum of any sort.

we are talking about aud/usd, right? (if not, i need to start getting more sleep!)
accelerating downtrend can also be topside of triangle. It shows increasing selling pressure.
  • #56,648
  • Nov 20, 2012 6:44pm Nov 20, 2012 6:44pm
I don't see any "accelerating" downtrend on the daily either, its more like ranging with less and less volatility. I'd expect even less now as all the US traders are on holidays.
  • #56,649
  • Nov 20, 2012 8:36pm Nov 20, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting Iro
I don't see any "accelerating" downtrend on the daily either, its more like ranging with less and less volatility. I'd expect even less now as all the US traders are on holidays.

yeah. there's a very obvious and well defined up channel beginning clear back on monday oct 8th ... i'd have to say that someone wants to see a lot of short positions entered. don't know why they would misrepresent a clear aspect of the .au chart.
  • #56,650
  • Nov 20, 2012 8:37pm Nov 20, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting Iro
I don't see any "accelerating" downtrend on the daily either, its more like ranging with less and less volatility. I'd expect even less now as all the US traders are on holidays.

yeah. there's a very obvious, steady and well defined up channel beginning clear back on monday oct 8th ... i'd have to say that someone wants to see a lot of short positions entered. don't know why they would misrepresent an obvious aspect of the .au chart.
  • #56,651
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:04pm Nov 20, 2012 9:04pm
Everyone's so focused on the long term strength.. don't forget about short term plays:

http://i.imgur.com/uecHi.png

30m chart, CCI divergence triggering short term trend following.. already took half off half way to the target.

Initial stop was just above the high tick at 1.03945.

I haven't traded like this in a long while, but been brushing up on a bunch of old strategies I used to use back in the day to see what's still kickin.
FXGears.com
  • #56,652
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:34pm Nov 20, 2012 9:34pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
Everyone's so focused on the long term strength.. don't forget about short term plays:

http://i.imgur.com/uecHi.png

30m chart, CCI divergence triggering short term trend following.. already took half off half way to the target.

Initial stop was just above the high tick at 1.03945.

I haven't traded like this in a long while, but been brushing up on a bunch of old strategies I used to use back in the day to see what's still kickin.
WOW.. hit my TP right on low tick before powering up like that. One pipette lower and I'd be out of luck. 0_0
FXGears.com
  • #56,653
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:35pm Nov 20, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
Everyone's so focused on the long term strength.. don't forget about short term plays:

http://i.imgur.com/uecHi.png

30m chart, CCI divergence triggering short term trend following.. already took half off half way to the target.

Initial stop was just above the high tick at 1.03945.

I haven't traded like this in a long while, but been brushing up on a bunch of old strategies I used to use back in the day to see what's still kickin.

there is a nascent s/t down channel developing over the last week or so --- best fit is defined by the lows of last friday and friday a week ago. it's a little sloppy, but .au is not .eu

the longer, stronger and more well-defined channel is the up channel defined by the highs of oct 18 and nov 7. i watch channel transitions all the time... these nascent changes in direction come and go. with a little imagination you can see them almost anywhere if you want to.

PS: would love to post charts but for some reason FF upload facility refuses to accept dropbox.com url's. do you or does anyone know anything about that?
  • #56,654
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:38pm Nov 20, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting 1candlepower
PS: would love to post charts but for some reason FF upload facility refuses to accept dropbox.com url's. do you or does anyone know anything about that?
I use imgur.com

Save the image to your desktop (or wherever.) Drag the file icon directly into the website, which will then change to show "upload". Drop it on the page, the site will get the right file path to use, then click the upload button.

In a few seconds you'll get a page that has the file info you need to share it, just copy the "BB Code" on the right and paste it into your post, it's already formatted to display inline within your post.

Cheers!
FXGears.com
  • #56,655
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:38pm Nov 20, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting 1candlepower
there is a nascent s/t down ....

..... FF upload facility refuses to accept dropbox.com url's. do you or does anyone know anything about that?
i assume that bit of vol was the "no decision" decision on greece....
  • #56,656
  • Nov 20, 2012 9:40pm Nov 20, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
I use imgur.com

Save the image to your desktop (or wherever.) Drag the file icon directly into the website, which will then change to show "upload". Drop it on the page, the site will get the right file path to use, then click the upload button.

In a few seconds you'll get a page that has the file info you need to share it, just copy the "BB Code" on the right and paste it into your post, it's already formatted to display inline within your post.

Cheers!

cool! i think i need to turn in for now. thanks very much!
  • #56,657
  • Edited Nov 21, 2012 12:09am Nov 20, 2012 11:58pm | Edited Nov 21, 2012 12:09am
Quoting 1candlepower
take a look at the 100 hour ema: looks like the downward momentum just got the wind knocked out of it's sail's. (i find the 100 hour ema is a good representation of the swing action of the pair lately)

judging from the remainder of the chart, it won't be going down much further for a while... beside's, looks like we're carvin out a nice bullish pin bar on the 4h
hell of a downbar lol, pretty much just manhandled that ema
  • #56,658
  • Nov 21, 2012 1:36am Nov 21, 2012 1:36am
this time for sure - will take off 2000. time to trade on long side
  • #56,659
  • Nov 21, 2012 1:38am Nov 21, 2012 1:38am
pic
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  • #56,660
  • Nov 21, 2012 2:51am Nov 21, 2012 2:51am
From this post, a new circle has been drawn. It's almost over, as well. In the next hour, I will be looking to go short, if I like the conditions. (Probably not.) The hour after that, I will be anticipating a drop to 1.032, whether I'm in or not. (Edit: not within the hour, but that's when the drop will start.)

Hourly
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