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  • #14,901
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:54pm Nov 20, 2012 12:54pm
Mmm I think now it's the time to buy.
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  • #14,902
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:55pm Nov 20, 2012 12:55pm
AUD resilient to rate cut chatter

Tue, Nov 20 2012, 20:41 GMT | Forex Live (http://www.forexlive.com)


By: Adam Button

The Australian dollar is among the worst performers today but it's only down 30 pips. The declines began after the RBA minutes overnight, which continued to point to future rate cuts. The question is: when? The OIS market is pricing a 60% chance of a rate cut at the Dec 5 meeting, which is the same as a day ago. That leaves the market watching data. In the day ahead, there are no notable releases so lets have a look at the short-term technicals. Today's low nearly matched the 50% retracement and has rebounded almost 30 pips, breaking a short-term downtrend. That points to a return to 1.0400/20. Beyond that, it depends on sentiment but if Stevens' attempts to talk down AUD are so easily dismissed, the near-term path is likely higher.
  • #14,903
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:00pm Nov 20, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting 1candlepower
what's your time horizon on that?
Haven't thought of that till now (Im a neeb) but just looking at the chart 20 days?

I joined a online school and as part of my studies was looking for some big moves, chose AU and after staring at at the charts for a few weeks started to like the pair and figured i might as well trade my assignments live with small lots.

That in mind anything i say and supposedly see in the charts comes from a really inexperienced newbie.
  • #14,904
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:01pm Nov 20, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting pabloski
Mmm I think now it's the time to buy.
  • #14,905
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:03pm Nov 20, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting Kissa
Haven't thought of that till now (Im a neeb) but just looking at the chart 20 days?

I joined a online school and as part of my studies was looking for some big moves, chose AU and after staring at at the charts for a few weeks started to like the pair and figured i might as well trade my assignments live with small lots.

That in mind anything i say and supposedly see in the charts comes from a really inexperienced newbie.
sounds exciting! best of luck.
  • #14,906
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:18pm Nov 20, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting HelloOz
If we go below 1.029
We will not see 1.055
Your rationales?
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,907
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:19pm Nov 20, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting 1candlepower
what's your time horizon on that?
Good question.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,908
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:23pm Nov 20, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting pabloski
Mmm I think now it's the time to buy.
Are you sure? Has the retracement completed?
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,909
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:36pm Nov 20, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Are you sure? Has the retracement completed?
At least one more test of 50%. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,910
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:56pm Nov 20, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353015509

This was posted on 11/15. Obviously, the path wouldn't be a straight line. Below is a more realistic path. IMO
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353341502

Some people disputed the probability of a retracement last night. IMO it was built in well before last Friday. Now, it becomes the fact. The question now is where the turning point is.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,911
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:56pm Nov 20, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
At least one more test of 50%. IMO
Thats what I'm seeing. Retracement should be complete by tonight with 1.509 of this sub wave insight.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #14,912
  • Edited 2:39pm Nov 20, 2012 2:04pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353341502

Some people disputed the probability of a retracement last night. IMO it was built in well before last Friday. Now, it becomes the fact. The question now is where the turning point is.
This retracement should be a 3 waves formation as well. In H4, I can see only two so far. So, one more leg down is in the cards. As to those who are looking for a windfall at 1.02xx or even 1.01xx may be disappointed sooner than later.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,913
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:08pm Nov 20, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This retracement should be a 3 waves formation as well. In H4, we can see only two so far. So, one more leg down is in the cards. As to those who are looking for a windfall at 1.02xx or even 1.01xx may be disappointed sooner than later.
Don't chase the enemy to the corner. Don't try to get every penny from every trade.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353282932
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,914
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:10pm Nov 20, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Your rationales?
harmonic pattern will become invalid..

we can still see ausie move up to 1.05 but at much slower pace.
  • #14,915
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:12pm Nov 20, 2012 2:12pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Thats what I'm seeing. Retracement should be complete by tonight with 1.509 of this sub wave insight.
I am not sure if 50% is the turning point but it will be tested tonight or tomorrow. If it is, then the Aussie will take a balloon ride to 1.05xx this week IMO.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343657436
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,916
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:17pm Nov 20, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting HelloOz
harmonic pattern will become invalid..

we can still see ausie move up to 1.05 but at much slower pace.
I respectfully disagree. The final thrust would be a swift move before all people who are looking for a windfall wake up from their dreams.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,917
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:19pm Nov 20, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Don't chase the enemy to the corner. Don't try to get every penny from every trade.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353282932
This is a taboo to me. Each time I failed, this mindset was to blame. To be honest, I am still struggling with this taboo everyday. The name of this taboo is greed.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,918
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:22pm Nov 20, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I respectfully disagree. The final thrust would be a swift move before all people who are looking for a windfall wake up from their dreams.
really need to go 1.034 at least, this is 61.8fib
if it does go to 1.034, another harmonic pattern is form..


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1353343270
  • #14,919
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:23pm Nov 20, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is a taboo to me. Each time I failed, this mindset was to blame. To be honest, I am still struggling with this taboo everyday. The name of this taboo is greed.
There may be some ways to control the fear. But, there is no cure for greed.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,920
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:24pm Nov 20, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting HelloOz
really need to go 1.034 at least, this is 61.8fib
if it does go to 1.034, another harmonic pattern is form..


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1353343270
Why not 76.40%? Or even S2? This was the questions in the first poll. Which component is more important in you trading decision making? In the reality, which will prevail?
daddybearforex. com
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